Farmers Insurance Open – Tournament Outright Betting Preview

The PGA Tour remains in California this week for the Farmers Insurance Open, the second tournament on the West Coast Swing.

Last week’s CareerBuilder Challenge was in keeping with the Tour season so far, the trend of low scoring and firing at every flag with the aim of making birdies but the pace changes this week. Scoring will be much tougher and the players much more tested.

Jason Day won this tournament last year on his way to a breakthrough major season. His winning score was just -9 which shows the difficulty on show here. Day begins the week as the 13/2 favourite to retain his title.

If he does retain his title then he will have tamed both the South and North courses at Torrey Pines in California. All players in the field play one of the opening two rounds on each of the courses before those who make the cut finish the tournament on the South course for the last 36 holes.

The North Course is the scoring course of the two. It is a par 72 which measures 7,052 yards and the rough isn’t too penal so you can go bombs away around here knowing that whether you’re on the fairway or not there isn’t too much of a disadvantage.

The South Course is by far the tougher one. It is a monster 7,698 yards playing to a par of 72 and unlike the North the rough can catch you out here. You need length off the tee, the ability to scramble with the greens hard to find or hard to hold when you do find them and you need to putt well.

Jason Day is the favourite to win the tournament but I’ve been reading how he had to pull out of the pro-am earlier in the week feeling ‘as sick as a dog’ so I’m not sure I’d be rushing in on the Australian with that knowledge.

Rickie Fowler is the 12/1 second favourite. He comes here full of confidence having landed the Abu Dhabi title last week. Dustin Johnson and Brandt Snedeker are next in the betting at 18/1 with Justin Rose and a rejuvenated looking Phil Mickelson next at 22/1. It is 25/1 bar those named.

I’m taking one of those I’ve already named as my main bet this week and that is on a man who has already won this tournament in Brandt Snedeker. Snedeker won the event in 2011 and was runner up a year later. He was back in the top 20 last year when his game was nowhere near as solid as it is now so I think he’s a huge runner again this week.

Snedeker is enjoying a fine run at the minute. He partnered Jason Dufner to success in the Franklin Templeton Shootout just prior to Christmas and he has started 2016 off with a third in the Tournament of Champions where nobody was getting near Spieth and then he lost a playoff to Fabian Gomez in the Sony Open a week later.

The way Snedeker is hitting the ball and the form he is in coupled with his record around both Torrey Pines tracks make him a standout bet this week.

I’m going for a few big priced runners who could go well this week for the rest of my picks and I’ll start off with the man who had me dreaming of a big payout for so long last week.

That is Jamie Lovemark. Ultimately he was found out in the final round when his waywardness with the irons cost him three double bogeys but I saw enough in the first three rounds so suggest he is worth a go again.

He is very aggressive and very long off the tee and that will serve him well here but his scrambling and his putting particularly caught the eye last week. He got up and down nearly every time he missed the green and that should see him leap a few in the field this week. At 66/1 I’ll give him another go here.

I’m not quite sure how Shane Lowry gets chalked up at 80/1 but I’ll take it. The burly Northern Irishman finished in the top 10 on debut in this tournament 12 months ago and is back for more. Since then he has won a WGC event on a track not too dissimilar to the South course here and became a leading player in the game as a result.

Lowry drives the ball well and his putting and scrambling rivals most. He has come good on some really tricky courses over the last 18 months or so and his record in America is encouraging for this stage of his career. Lowry has all the tools to go well around here and he has my money to support him.

Nick Watney has a good record around here and now that he is back with Butch Harmon I’ve been waiting for a week to get him onside and this looks like a good time to start.

Watney has three top seven finishes here in the last five years and certainly his tied seventh last year would have been a surprise as his game hasn’t been at its peak for a while. A return to Harmon is almost certain to help and I wouldn’t be surprised if Watney starts contending for titles again soon.

Given the record the Californian born Watney has in this tournament I think he’s a little bit too big at 100/1 if a return to a favourite spot brings out his best game again.

Finally my last pick is a real long shot but not a total no hoper. That comes in the shape of the former Masters and US Open champion Angel Cabrera.

Cabrera is very hit and miss these days but the thing we know about the Argentinian is he doesn’t lack for length off the tee and he’s generally got a competitive iron and short game. If he can get some putts to drop he could get himself in the mix here.

With a couple of the majors this year being at stops where Cabrera has won around I would imagine that ‘El Pato’ will be looking forward to 2016 and putting in plenty of work to give those majors another strong tilt. At 250/1 getting Paddy Power’s seven places I’ll chance a man I’ve a bit of a soft spot for from results he’s given me in the past.

Back B.Snedeker to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 19.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-5)

Back J.Lovemark to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)

Back S.Lowry to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with BetVictor (1/4 1-5)

Back N.Watney to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)

Back A.Cabrera to win Farmers Insurance Open (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)