Some of the best footballers in the world will descend on Qatar for the next month to compete in the FIFA World Cup 2022 and that makes for an extremely competitive looking top goalscorer market for the big competition.
Harry Kane took home the Golden Boot four years ago and he is back to try and win that particular accolade for a second time in succession here. So many great strikers will be out to get the better of him though.
Recent Winners
2018 – Harry Kane
2014 – James Rodriguez
2010 – Thomas Muller
2006 – Miroslav Klose
2002 – Ronaldo
1998 – Davor Suker
1994 – Oleg Salenko & Hristo Stoichkov
1990 – Salvatore Schillaci
1986 – Gary Lineker
1982 – Paolo Rossi
The Favourites
It is 8/1 the field in this market this year with the man who currently holds the Golden Boot being the favourite to win it again in Harry Kane. The England marksman ticks a lot of boxes in that he is the main man for his side and he will be on penalties for them and England should make sufficient progress in the tournament. One concern would be that his club manager suggested he was extremely tired recently which can only be a negative.
Kylian Mbappe is widely regarded as the most exciting forward in the world and he is a 10/1 poke to top score from a France side who might have lost their central kingpin Karim Benzema which could benefit the PSG superstar. One concern with backing Mbappe would be the tough draw that France have and it isn’t like they are in a group with too many vulnerable opponents either but we saw in Russia the quality that he has and he’s only got better since. He’s a danger.
Lionel Messi is a point bigger than his PSG teammate to take the Golden Boot home from what many are expecting to be his final World Cup. Argentina are a much more free scoring team these days and he remains the main man but it isn’t all about Messi like it has been in the past. If you fancy Argentina to go well and want to support Messi it might be worth taking him to be the player of the tournament rather than in this market as others could share the goals.
Neymar is expected to lead a Brazil charge but the same thing applies to him as it does to Messi in that while he is the best player in the team, he is no longer the only man carrying their hopes. Neymar will be on penalties which might assist him and Brazil are likely to go very well in the tournament but you would imagine if they go well he’ll be more of a shoe in to be the player of the tournament than the top scorer in it necessarily. 12/1 certainly offers value on a world class performer.
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Strategy
The generic school of thought when attacking this market is to look for players who are most likely to play seven matches in the tournament. There is a third-fourth placed play-off in this tournament so the four teams who make the semi-finals will give players the chance to play seven matches.
While I accept that line of thinking, it is not much use if two or three of those matches are against watertight defences where the chances of scoring are less likely. Another thing to throw into the equation is that knockout matches are generally much tighter affairs to expecting goals in those games is not always the right thing. In an ideal world we would go with penalty takers but there aren’t enough penalties in World Cups to make that a priority for me.
I personally think the way to attack this market is to work out which groups will be the highest scoring and attack players in those sections, preferably in sides who might progress through a couple of knockout matches to give themselves the chance of adding to their group stage total.
Different Market
It is at this point that we should point out that not everybody settles this market in the same fashion. Most bookmakers will pay out on goals scored with a dead heat should there be a tie but some are paying out on the Golden Boot itself so if you bet with them then your player will need either most goals or if there is a tie the most assists among those who have scored the most goals.
Betting
I’ll go with a couple of bets in this market and they both come in teams who I expect to have good tournaments. The main bet is on Memphis Depay who I really think could steal a march in the group stage of this event given that he goes up against a Qatar defence which is anything but sturdy and two sides in Senegal and Ecuador who might need to go on the attack in their respective meetings. Depay has probably fallen down the world profile even though he is still a Barcelona player. This is his chance to get back into the forefront of the leading lights in the game and at 25/1 he feels overpriced.
All the eyes in the Argentina side will be on Lionel Messi and Lautaro Martinez but Angel di Maria shouldn’t be forgotten as he often plays a regular and prominent role in this team. The Juventus attacker is another who will be playing in a last World Cup and he’ll be looking to make his mark on it. Argentina have a group where they could run up a few goals and if the main two get their minutes managed along the way then di Maria could easily take advantage. He bagged a couple in a friendly against UAE ahead of the tournament so he’s in decent nick and I’ll pay to see if he can go well at a monster 150/1.
Tips
Back M.Depay Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Betway (1/4 1-4)
Back A.di Maria Top Goalscorer (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 151.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
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