The Sunday of The Masters has arrived, one of sports best nights of the year and fittingly we are set for a thrilling conclusion to the iconic tournament.
For much of this week Jordan Spieth has threatened to take control of the tournament once again but every time he has broken clear of the field he has slipped up and his final slip up on Saturday has left many players dreaming of donning a Green Jacket on Sunday evening.
Third round review
It was another day of really tough conditions at Augusta National and the field really suffered as a result. At the beginning of the day there were seven players under par and that has been whittled down to just four now.
Saturday was billed as a showdown between the big two of Spieth and Rory McIlroy but it never really materialised as the Northern Irishman just couldn’t get into the round at any stage. He ended up carding a 78 which didn’t include a single birdie on a horrible day for the world number three.
The players under par heading into the final round are Jordan Spieth, Smylie Kaufman, Hideki Matsuyama and amazingly the evergreen Bernhard Langer. Three more men – Danny Willett, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson sit on even par starting Sunday.
At one stage Spieth was seven under for the tournament on Saturday but as disastrous bogey-double bogey finish saw him plummet to just three under, a shot ahead of Kaufman who he will be alongside on Sunday and two clear of Matsuyama and Langer.
Spieth’s lead on three under par suggests we are going to have the highest winning score since Zach Johnson won in 2007 and even those as far back as two or three over par, which includes McIlroy, Rose and Cabrera, will feel they are still in with a chance.
Latest odds
Spieth 6/4
Day 11/2
Matsuyama 7/1
D Johnson 10/1
Kaufman 14/1
McIlroy 20/1
Willett 22/1
Langer 30/1
Bar 35/1
Sunday preview
This is set up to be a great night of sport. Jordan Spieth is rightfully the favourite but let us make it quite clear if he plays like he did on Saturday he isn’t going to win this tournament again this year. There has been a sense of Spieth having gotten away with a lot this week so far and that luck is due to run out.
If Spieth doesn’t win the market suggests Jason Day will and I certainly wouldn’t be surprised if he does but I feel Hideki Matsuyama merits more respect. The Japanese player is perfectly suited to the mindset you need on this course. He is patient. He puts the ball in the right places and he takes what he is given and doesn’t force anything. He’s a real threat.
You would think the going will be too tough for the likes of Smylie Kaufman and Bernhard Langer but with conditions set to improve on Sunday that might be being a little disrespectful to both.
The statistics would suggest you need to be in the top four going into the final round but the chasing pack is absolutely loaded with quality and with question marks on those under par, perhaps Matsuyama aside, if someone is going to come through and steal the title this is the year.
I’m quite happy with my positions in the outright market. I’ve got Daniel Berger on +2, Cabrera on +3 and Kuchar on +4 and a good round for any of them can catapult them right into contention which can hopefully lead to a place at worst and if the front two groups do struggle they might even snatch the win.
Heading into the final round three handed and with conditions set to improve to make for fantastic viewing I’m happy to keep my position how it is and watch the drama unfold on the back nine as it is perfectly set up to do.
Sunday 2 balls
Spieth and Kaufman head off in the final group at 7.45pm with Matsuyama and Langer behind them 10 minutes earlier. Spieth and Matsuyama are both odds on and that is understandable although if Kaufman can handle the nerves he can certainly lay it down to Spieth with his power off the tee.
There are a few question marks for Kaufman to answer though. Yes he is a tournament winner on the PGA Tour already but he won that from the clouds and he hasn’t really ever been in genuine contention so to speak let alone on a day of this magnitude. With that in mind I’ll shy away from the main groups.
Unfortunately a lot of the bigger names I was looking to oppose, such as Martin Kaymer and Adam Scott have run into tame opponents and a couple who I was looking to back, notably Brandt Snedeker and Hideki Matsuyama have inferior opposition and are no value at all. It has been a profitable week on the round by round groups so in the end I’ll take just one here and keep my profit safely intact.
Jason Day and Dustin Johnson go out in the third last group at 7.25pm UK time and you would think the mindset of these two will be chalk and cheese. Mental strength is one of Day’s forte’s and he will really love a golf course set up for him to attack with the way he is playing.
But for nine crazy holes on Thursday, Day would be right in the shape up in this tournament but even from three back he is in a position to strike for back to back majors and we know he has the belief and ability to still win this thing.
Mentally does Johnson have the same belief? I’m not so sure he does. Even when he has played a good final round when in contention in a major he finds a way to disappoint and while he stats very well this week so far this is a different animal entirely.
Johnson doesn’t have much in the way of length advantage over Day so I don’t really see where he outscores him. Day’s all-round game is a lot better than Johnson’s and he is mentally so much stronger. I can’t ignore the 10/11 on the Australian here.
Tips
Back J.Day to beat D.Johnson for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with Boylesports
Back him here:
