The first major of the year takes place this week as the golfing world descends on Augusta National for The Masters. This prestigious and historic event isn’t just one of the biggest weeks of golf of the year but it is one of the iconic sporting events so there will be plenty eyes on this tournament.
Jordan Spieth heads down Magnolia Lane as the defending champion having held off the challenges of Justin Rose and Phil Mickelson last year. The American can be backed at 10/1 to win another Green Jacket.
History
This will be the 80th edition of this wonderful golf tournament. The Masters was first played in 1934 when it was won by Horton Smith of the United States. Since then the tournament has built in prestige and tradition and has become more and more iconic.
One of the things that makes The Masters so special is each winner receives a Green Jacket which automatically gives him membership of the club and denotes who the champions of this event are.
Anyone who is anyone in the game of golf has won this tournament. Tiger Woods has four jackets in his wardrobe as does the great Arnold Palmer but that is almost insignificant in comparison to Jack Nicklaus’ six wins. Nick Faldo, Gary Player, Sam Snead and Phil Mickelson are three time winners at Augusta while Jose Maria Olazabal, Seve Ballesteros, Bernhard Langer, Tom Watson and Ben Hogan have all won this title twice.
Many of the most memorable moments in golf have been staged in this tournament from Tiger’s chip in 2005 to Bubba’s boomerang around the tree in the playoff in 2012, from Jack Nicklaus’ famous tee shot at 16 in 1986 to Sandy Lyle’s bunker shot two years later. This event has it all.
There has been plenty of drama in the past in this tournament and it would be a major surprise if there isn’t lots more between Thursday and Sunday.
Augusta National
The course is a par 72 which measures 7,435 yards which is pretty standard for modern times. Each hole is named after the flower that surrounds it. I always think you need to have a bit of length behind you to get around here. You absolutely have to be able to putt well on these greens while the ability to scramble given all the slopes and run off areas around the place is pretty important too.
By and large this golf course is a second shot golf course. The rough is never too penal and the fairways are generally pretty wide but the scoring holes are the par 5s which is where length comes into play. Zach Johnson won this tournament a few years back but he was the anomaly not the norm.
The Field
Unlike the other majors there is no qualifying tournament to get into this event. It remains an invitational tournament with the top 50 in the world invited along with players who meet various other tournament winning criteria over the last 12 months.
All former champions are automatically invited into the tournament although those of a certain age are often dissuaded from playing. All in all the field is made up of 90 players this week.
Market Leaders
Jason Day is the favourite to win the tournament this year. He is a pretty general 7/1 shot. He is a genuine favourite to win this. His wins in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and the WGC Dell Match Play make him the man to beat. He is a great scrambler and a fantastic putter but he’s plenty short enough.
Rory McIlroy is the second favourite to prevail at 9/1 and apart from the time he blew the lead on the back nine in 2011 he’s never really genuinely been in contention to win this tournament. I don’t think this course suits McIlroy’s game as well as others and his putting troubles of the last six months have to be a concern.
Jordan Spieth is 10/1 to win the title again. He has played here twice and has finished 2-1 which is some impact! I always think this is the hardest of all tournaments to defend. You could argue it shouldn’t be as unlike the other majors this one remains at the same course but all the hype, media attention and things like hosting the champions dinner two days before the event and things can make it hard to maintain focus.
Spieth showed signs of his putting come back in Houston on Sunday but I just sense he’s not playing as well as he was when he won this 12 months ago or indeed when he was second the year before.
Adam Scott has been the player of 2016 so far with his runner up finish in the Northern Trust Open followed by wins in the WGC Cadillac and the Honda Classic but I just wonder if he peaked a little too early. In a couple of events since then he has looked less convincing but he’s a former winner here which counts for a lot. He should go well again but you’d do well to argue there is any value left in his price.
Overview
All in all while this is one of my favourite weeks of the golfing year from the perspective of being a big fan of the sport I happen to think it is one of the worst betting heats of the year. No fewer than eight men in the outright market are 20/1 or less so there isn’t much in the way of value floating about.
I’ll take a few outright before a ball is struck but much of my betting this week will come in the nationality/special markets and the daily ones. We must pay kudos to Skybet who are offering 8 places on the outright market this week.
Main Bets
I’m going with two main bets this week, both of whom are entirely predictable but that is largely what this tournament is these days with history and trends very much part of the make up of the event.
Bubba Watson is a twice former champion around here and anyone who has followed me long term will know that I believe no course suits a player and his style as much as this one does for Bubba. If you’re a statistics believer then both times Bubba won this tournament he finished second at Doral and this year he finished second there but that is purely coincidence I believe.
The real reasons for backing him is that he’s monstrous off the tee and these tee shots all suit his eye which is a massive thing for Bubba and the way he loves to shape his shots, especially with his cuts, plays perfectly to the angles of this course.
Bubba leads the PGA Tour on strokes gained from tee to green and on greens in regulation. He’s fourth in driving distance and par five scoring and we know he gets on with these greens from the two times he’s won here. With a win under his belt at Riviera already in 2016 the big hitting lefty is primed for a third green jacket.
That would put Bubba level on jackets with Phil Mickelson and it is the other left hander who forms the base of my second main bet.
Mickelson loves it at Augusta. As well as those three wins he has no fewer than 12 other top 10 finishes with eight of those seeing him inside the top five including being runner up to Jordan Spieth last year. There is no doubt in my mind that Mickelson is playing, and hitting the ball much better now than he was then too.
The popular left hander is ninth in strokes gained tee to green on the PGA Tour and sixth in strokes gained putting so he’s hitting it really nicely at the minute. He also ranks sixth for scrambling and he’s in the top 10 for par five scoring. All those stats combined make him a very dangerous player this week.
Outsiders
I’m going with three outsiders. The first of which is Matt Kuchar. Some would question whether Kuchar has got it mentally to win a major and that might be a fair question to ask but now that he isn’t being looked at as a genuine contender he might be in position to benefit.
Kuchar is another with a good record here. He was well down the field 12 months ago but 2015 was a pretty poor year for him. In the three years prior to that his finishes were 3, 8 and 5 which is good going. With top 15 finishes in the Sony Open, the Northern Trust Open and the Valspar Championship not to mention a run to the last 16 in the Dell Match Play he looks like he’s getting back to top form again.
The affable American sits 12th in par five scoring on tour. He favours a draw which is essential around here and we know he’s a great putter. His short game was working well in Austin a fortnight ago as well so I expect Kuch to outrun his odds this week.
I can never let this week go by without a punt on Angel Cabrera. You don’t have to look too far to see the reasons but he is always inspired by this place and if his irons are dialled in and he gets a few putts to drop I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go well here again.
The 2009 champion only lost out in a playoff to Adam Scott here in 2013 so he can do the course and distance no problem. The big hitting Argentinian has four other top 10 finishes here too so I’ll pay to see how close he can run this week.
Finally I’m going to get back on the Daniel Berger train. I’ve been a big fan of this kid ever since he stepped onto the PGA Tour scene last season and his last two strokeplay events of T11 in the Valspar and T5 in Houston last week have got him back on my radar.
Berger has all the length you need around here and when he’s on it he hits greens as well as anyone as highlighted by his GIR stats in those tournaments. He’s a huge price but if he can get to grips with these greens from the beginning he could make a mockery of those odds.
Tips
Back B.Watson to win The Masters (e/w) for a 2.5/10 stake at 13.00 with NetBet (1/4 1-5)
Back him here:
Back P.Mickelson to win The Masters (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 21.00 with Coral (1/4 1-6)
Back him here:
Back M.Kuchar to win The Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 67.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-8)
Back A.Cabrera to win The Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 201.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-8)
Back them here:
Back D.Berger to win The Masters (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 251.00 with Paddy Power (1/5 1-7)
Back him here:
