With The Masters not getting underway until lunchtime on Thursday UK time we still have a few moments to get stuck into the various side markets and specials for the tournament.
Generally I’m not one for getting too heavy in outright bets but this tournament is a little different as so many nationality markets have been priced up. It would almost be wrong of us not to take the opportunity to get stuck in!
Top German
We’ll start with the Top German market where my main bet comes in the nationality bets. One of the reasons why it is my main bet is because the market is simply a two horse race as only Martin Kaymer and Bernhard Langer made it through the selection process.
If you look at Kaymer’s record here you will see this is not his favourite place and there are reasons for that. He is a renowned fader of the golf ball and this place heavily suits a draw so Kaymer will struggle for distances and getting close to the areas you need to be and his record reflects that.
In eight previous outings here he has missed the cut on five occasions and in the three times he has played all four rounds his best total score has been +3. He is yet to crack the top 30 in the tournament and he has gone into the event in previous years in much better form and shape than he is now.
Bernhard Langer knows every inch of this golf course. He has won the tournament on two occasions and was eighth as recently as two years ago here. He has been keeping his eye in on the Seniors Tour for a while and his game remains in good order.
I think at 6/4 the legend is a great bet to beat his German rival especially with Kaymer having to suffer the McIlroy sideshow for the opening two rounds. Langer may only need to make the cut to win this bet.
Top Englishman
There are eight Englishmen in the field this year which makes for a decent little Top Englishman market where last year’s runner up Justin Rose is the favourite at 13/8.
Rose is clearly the standout name in this field now and it is understandable why he is the favourite here. He has only been outside the top 25 in this tournament once since 2003 so he is incredibly consistent around here but I just sense he isn’t on top form at the minute. He isn’t putting well and contrary to others I’m not convinced his long game is tip top either. I wouldn’t be surprised if he is the leading Englishman but I think better value lies elsewhere.
Those who like Danny Willett will be pleased to know there are no baby issues. That happened last week which is a positive and maybe apart from a lack of sleep and practice time there isn’t too much not to like about the Englishman who has made big strides in America this year. At around 5/1 he might just be a touch short too.
I’m confident Paul Casey isn’t in the kind of form that could make him a contender here and while Ian Poulter arrives here off the back of a good effort in Puerto Rico a couple of weeks ago I’m not sure he’s got it in this company at the minute either. Lee Westwood, Chris Wood and Matthew Fitzpatrick, while all great players, don’t interest me this week.
That leaves us with Andy Sullivan who, despite being a rookie around here, has the game to be competitive. He is a flusher of iron shots, has a wonderful short game and is a good putter which is everything you want in a player this week. At the first time of asking winning the tournament or even contending deep might be beyond him but if the big boys in this market struggle he’ll be there to take advantage.
Top Continental European
Surprisingly in my outright bets I didn’t go for a European. That says a lot about the Europeans in the event this year and so for a bet on one of them I’ll whittle the field down to just Continental Europeans.
That leaves us with Henrik Stenson as a market leader. He is no bigger than 6/4 to win the market but when he has never posted a top 10 finish in 10 starts here I can’t be rushing in on that no matter how much I rate the Swede.
Of course Stenson arrives at Augusta in decent nick after a good run in Houston last week but you could argue that it was a negative that he couldn’t get the better of Jim Herman there. I don’t think there will be any after-effects from that but you just never know.
Sergio Garcia is rated the main danger to Stenson according to the betting market but he only has one top 10 in the last 11 years around this track so I can’t be going heavy on him either so that suggests there could be some value in this market.
We can immediately eliminate Rafa Cabrera-Bello and Martin Kaymer from the equation. Faders just don’t compete around here as I’ve already highlighted. Of the rest Soren Kjeldsen is nowhere near long enough while Victor Dubuisson is often anything and we only really know what he is nine holes into Thursday. Langer can go well but while I think he’ll beat Kaymer I’m not so sure he’ll win this market and while Romain Langasque has a huge future in the game this comes too soon.
I’ve got this between Bernd Wiesberger and David Lingmerth and in truth there isn’t a lot to split them. I’m going to take the Austrian for a couple of reasons. I’ve heard the course is really firm and that will play into Wiesberger’s hands. He putts so much better on faster greens and he comes in here off the back of a good effort in Houston for much of last week.
I like Lingmerth a lot but he’s on debut here this week which is another negative to Wiesberger in my mind so at 12/1 I’ll take the European GIR machine to lead this market on Sunday evening.
Tips
WON – Back B.Langer Top German for a 3/10 stake at 2.50 with Boylesports
Back him here:
Back A.Sullivan Top Englishman (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 with Betfair (1/5 1-3)
Back him here:
Back B.Wiesberger Top Continental European (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with Ladbrokes (1/5 1-3)
Back him here:
