A new PGA Tour season begins on Thursday barely three weeks after the previous one ended but that gives us a chance to have a look at the PGA Tour Money List betting market which is always a competitive one and something to give us interest across the pond for the next 11 months.
The first thing we should point out in this preview is that the $10m for winning the FedEx Cup does NOT count in the settling of this market. It is purely PGA tournament winnings that is included.
Market Leaders
Dustin Johnson banked a cool $9,365,185 in prize money last year as well as the $10m on top for winning the FedEx Cup and he is a 4/1 co-favourite with Rory McIlroy to top the money list this season. Johnson won a major, a WGC and a playoff event in 2015-16 so the immediate question is can he emulate that again. He’s a top player now but form comes and goes and it is asking a lot to repeat that.
McIlroy on the other hand had a poor season by his standards. He was nowhere in any of the majors and apart from winning two playoff events was barely a factor on the Tour as evidenced by the fact he wasn’t even making East Lake going into the final set of tournaments. My concern for backing Rory is if he wins The Masters and completes the career Grand Slam his focus could disappear for a while.
Jason Day was second last year despite not winning a major but even at 9/2 he is easily ruled out because of this injury he has to his back. He doesn’t have to play as much this year and I sense he won’t so we don’t want him.
Jordan Spieth is a 13/2 chance and you can never rule him out at any stage but he needs to find some semblance of the long game which saw him win majors and look to dominate before we can get involved in him especially at this price.
Adam Scott was third last year despite not winning a major. He did win a couple of big tournaments though and he was consistent throughout the playoffs. I could see him winning again this season but whether he wins enough remains to be seen. At 18/1 he can’t be ruled out.
Patrick Reed is 20/1 to lead the money list and if his performances at the recent Ryder Cup are anything to go by then that has to be a good price. He was a top 10 machine on the Tour last season and finally got his hands on silverware at The Barclays. That saw him rise to fifth which was a decent effort considering he never bettered T12 in any of the majors and only made one strokeplay top 10 in the WGC events. He has lots of improvement in him.
It is 40/1 bar that sextet which brings the likes of Henrik Stenson, Brooks Koepka, Justin Rose, Bubba Watson, Rickie Fowler and Hideki Matsuyama all into play.
Angle of Attack
Whenever I bet on this market I’m looking for a player who has the game to win a major and someone who plays a lot of golf. Realistically you need someone who will win three times over the course of the season although a major and another sizeable title might be enough but then place money backing that up can make for a big total.
Betting
With that in mind my first pick is the obvious one. We saw Jordan Spieth take all the confidence in the world from a strong Ryder Cup outing two years ago to break all kinds of records the following year and I suspect Patrick Reed has the potential to do the same.
He has just had a season of 11 top 10s with a win and two seconds and now if he can continue that conversion rate and add a major onto the total then he is going to be a big runner in this field. I believe there is a major in Reed and when one comes another might not take long to follow. He is competitive in all four majors usually and the form he is showing and the improvement he has made there is one in him.
We’ve already seen him land a big WGC event and with him learning to peak for the big tournaments and having seen the game he can deliver at Hazeltine I think that is a game that can go close to topping the money list.
I’m also going to take a chance on Brandt Snedeker. I think making the Ryder Cup team and having a big impact on the result will give him a lot of confidence. He has already strolled to a win in Fiji since then so his form and confidence is back.
Snedeker was a winner on the PGA Tour last season at Torrey Pines and if he can back that up with another couple this year and get back to contending in majors he will bank enough prize money to be competitive. He has had two multi-win seasons on the PGA Tour and another one could put him right in the mix.
Tips
Back P.Reed to win PGA Tour Money List (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
Back B.Snedeker to win PGA Tour Money List (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Winner Sports (1/4 1-4)
Back him here:
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