Come 5.15pm on Saturday and 40 horses will be lining up to run in the World’s Greatest Steeplechase, the Grand National. This will be the 170th running of race and it remains the longest race in Britain at just over 4 miles 2 furlongs.
Profile
With such a big field, what’s needed to narrow down the field to a more manageable list? Some prefer to use their lucky pin and some pick out names, jockeys or silks but we’ll attempt to look at it from a racing perspective and look at some of the key trends and characteristics needed to land this valuable prize.
Remember that modifications were made to the race in 2013 so it is best to look at the last 4 renewals and build a picture of the Aintree type, based not only the winner but also others that made the frame.
Age
Age still remains one of the most important trends. I’d be putting a line through any 7 year old as they don’t have the required experience whilst any horse aged 12 upwards is likely to be on the downgrade and there will surely be better treated horses in the field. Despite their being only 4 horses who fit this trend, it is interesting to note that only 1 of the 14 finishers was aged over 9. This may be a coincidence so I’ll be leaving in the older horses for now.
Season
The next thing to look at is a horse’s previous runs that season. You really need a horse that has run in the last 60 days. This is not surprising as you want a horse that has proved its recent wellbeing. Seeing a track for the first time in months is not ideal when tackling the Aintree fences. In addition, you want a horse to have had 3-6 runs since the winter season kicked off. Less than that brings into question a horse’s wellbeing whilst any more and you’d be questioning whether it will really see out the trip after such a long season. These 2 statistics get rid of another 12 of the field.
Stamina
Stamina is probably the characteristic that most people go to first and with this being the longest race in Britain, there’s an obvious reason. The one statistic you can’t ignore is that your horse must have won over 3 miles in its career. Of the 24 that remain, only 2 have not recorded a win over at least 3 miles.
Using the above, the field is narrowed to 22. But what other things can be considered?
Form
Form in big fields is normally a good place to start. A win or place in a field of 20+ runners is a good pointer which also supports the “National” form. Any horse placed in a National (Scottish, Irish or Welsh) should not be dismissed. In fact, one angle is that any horse that has run in races over 3 miles 4 furlongs or further should have either won or been placed previously. Dismiss any that has an unplaced profile over marathon distances.
However, don’t discount the horses that have never tackled a long distance but make sure that they won their race over the longest distance to date. There are several good recent examples of this but, remember, their longest distance must be at least 3 miles.
Recent form is generally considered important so a top 3 finish in one of your last 3 runs is a positive whilst previous experience over the fences should not be underestimated.
Applying some of these rules should narrow the field down further. Good luck!
