The biggest race of the National Hunt season has arrived as 34 horses go to post at Aintree for the Grand National on Saturday afternoon. The huge race deserves a preview all of its own and so here is our pinstickers guide to the runners and riders as well as our three selections for the big race.
4.00 Aintree: Grand National
Noble Yeats
A record of a win and 4th in the last 2 runnings of this make him hard to leave out of calculations, especially as he’s 1lb lower than 12 months. However, carrying this sort of weight on the very soft ground is not ideal. Likely to get round & will probably be staying on but unlikely to be adding to his National success of 2022.
Nassalam
Absolutely bolted up in the Welsh National on deep ground so conditions here will suit. Trip & ground in his favour but may need it even softer to figure, whilst a mark of 161 probably handicaps him out of this. Was highly tried in the Gold Cup 4 weeks, didn’t jump well & pulled up.
Coko Beach
Has contested the last 2 Nationals finishing a distant 8th in 2022 & pulled up last year. Those 2 runs were off lower marks than he faces today so unlikely to feature here. That said, form figures of 3-1-2-1, with the 2nd being in the Becher Chase over these fences, is not to be sniffed at but feel he’s better over shorter.
Capodanno
Plies his trade almost exclusively in Graded company so is proven as high class. The 2 big negatives are the fact he didn’t get home last year, having been pulled up, and, despite almost getting round over these fences, he’s prone to a jumping error. Has a lot of weight to carry too.
I Am Maximus
Not the most fluent of jumpers and often races lazily but has plenty of ability & is the choice of Paul Townend. Won the Irish National having raced out the back & stayed on very well to win by a length. Has since won a Grade 1 so is really hard to dismiss his chances, with worry being whether he’ll both get a clear run & negotiate these tricky fences.
Minella Indo
After the cross country race at Cheltenham wasn’t run due to the ground, he’s not run since before Christmas. Is a former Gold Cup and is approaching the veteran stage but still retains ability & will love the ground. On stats, age is against him but I expect Rachael Blackmore to give him a good spin & it wouldn’t be the biggest shock if he rewarded each way backers.
Corach Rambler
Last year’s winner of this historic race & an excellent staying on 3rd in this year’s Gold Cup underline his very strong claims. It’s really difficult to pick holes in his form & he could follow in the footsteps of Tiger Roll by doubling up in the race if his 13lb higher mark doesn’t blunt his speed.
Janidil
Warmed up for this with a run in the Stayers Hurdle but ran a poor race in finishing 11th of 12. Whilst he’ll appreciate the ground, I’m not sure he stays 3 miles, let alone another 10 furlongs on top. His price accurately reflects his chance.
Stattler
A lively outsider having won the NH Chase at Cheltenham 2 years ago. Will like the ground and, whilst he’s a 9 year old, he’s unexposed over staying trips with that win being the only time he’s further than 3 miles 2 furlongs. Has his share of weight but if the trip suits like I expect it to, he could easily run into a place.
Mahler Mission
An interesting runner. Looked all over the winner in the NH Chase at Cheltenham 12 months ago but fell 2 out when clear & has continued to run well this year, most notably with 2nd of 20 in the Gold Cup Handicap Chase in November at Newbury. 7lb higher here and without a run since then are both significant negatives.
Delta Work
Unseated in this last year when travelling ok & the choice of Jack Kennedy so has claims. Was also 3rd the year before & has 2 wins, albeit cross country, over marathon trips. Interesting that blinkers replace cheekpieces and, off a decent mark, could go well although his age is a negative for win purposes.
Foxy Jacks
Jumped poorly in his one run over these fences in the Topham in 2022 when hitting the 3rd & the 8th quite hard before coming to grief at the 9th. Won over the Cheltenham cross country course in November but is 8lb higher here. Ran off a much lower mark over hurdles in his prep run.
Galvin
Yet another with past form in both the NH Chase & the Cross Country but a first fence unseat last year is offputting. Whilst he can handle the ground, he’s definitely a horse that shows better form on better ground & that, combined with his effort last year, makes him an easy one to pass over.
Farouk D’Alene
After a long time off the track, he’s not really done anything this term to suggest he’s a contender here. He fell on reappearance & was then a distant 5th of 6 before having 2 runs over the smaller obstacles. Admittedly, he ran a cracker on the first of those two but back over the bigger obstacles where he’s fallen on 2 of his last 3 starts, he’s not for me.
Eldorado Allen
Placed in a couple of big handicaps earlier in the campaign, his form has gone south since & wind surgery didn’t seem to have helped having been pulled up on his most recent start. Add to that, he doesn’t look an out and out stayer having never won beyond 3 miles so is readily dismissed.
Ain’t That A Shame
Won the Thyestes in January off 8lb lower which puts him in the picture but did run well here 12 months ago when fancied at 10/1 & looked a non-stayer when trailing in last of the 17 finishers. Blackmore also deserts him so, for me, he’s a no bet.
Vanillier
2nd in this last year and only 4lb higher so on that, and that alone, he has an outstanding chance. He’s an out and out stayer but, conversely, I don’t think the ground is in his favour as he’s better on slightly better going. His yard has made a number of successful raids to these shores this year but I think the ground this year may just find him out.
Mr Incredible
Will absolutely relish this ground & the longer the trip, the better. Unseated in this last year but not from a jumping error; his saddle slipped when travelling well just after the canal turn second time around. Was 2nd in the Warwick Classic Handicap Chase last year & 2nd again in the Midlands National this year. Races off a good mark & with a nice racing weight, he holds top claims.
Run Wild Fred
Has only won once over fences & that was well over 2 years ago so doesn’t look an obvious contender. Recent chase form of P-B-P does not convince either & despite those runs, his mark virtually hasn’t moved. Would be a shock finisher, never mind winner.
Latenightpass
Should give Gina Andrews another good spin over the National fences after 3 excellent runs in the Foxhunters where he’s finished 1st, 3rd and 4th. If he stays the trip, there won’t be many relishing these fences more but off a career high mark, it’s hard to see him winning.
Minella Crooner
Very unlikely to get home. Has been pulled up on 3 of 4 times he’s gone beyond 3 miles and was a distant 3rd of 4 in the other. Sure to like the ground though but he’s 80/1 for a reason & it takes some imagination to believe he’ll be anywhere near at the business end.
Adamantly Chosen
Not easily dismissed as an unexposed type that won on the longest trip he’s faced to date which was his last time out win over 3 miles 2 furlongs. This is a step into the unknown but has plenty in his favour if this longer trip brings about further improvement. At 50/1, he’s likely to give you a run for your money.
Mac Tottie
Has won twice over these fences in the past, landing the Topham both times, but in between that, fell in the Becher Chase so a definite mixed bag. The bigger concern for me is that he doesn’t look a thorough stayer & was pulled up on his only start over a marathon trip.
Chemical Energy
2nd in last year’s NH Chase over the longest trip he’s faced but lightly raced since, pulling up in the Irish National after some shuddering jumping errors. Once raced this term, he ran ok in the Kerry National when 10 lengths 6th to Desertmore House but will need to pull out a lot more to contend here.
Limerick Lace
Form of 1-2-1-1 this year brings him right into the equation but odds of less than 10/1 for one that’s not certain to stay isn’t a bet for me. Never won beyond 2 miles 4 furlongs and has never won beyond 3 miles so you’re definitely taking a big gamble on him lasting the course.
Meetingofthewaters
Inexperienced over fences having had just 6 starts but comes here with bundles of potential. Won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas & was 3rd in the Ultima at Cheltenham. Could well be suited by this much longer trip but still need to take stamina on trust. Odds feel a little skinny.
The Goffer
Looks to be a weak finisher so is another readily passed over. Ran well in the Bet365 Chase at Sandown last spring & was 5th in the Kerry National so can go well in decent races but there’s certain to be many more stronger at the finish, especially on the prevailing ground.
Roi Mage
7th in this last year off 2lb higher & has again run pretty well on 2 occasions this term. A good stayer who should give a good account for the small yard of Patrick Griffin. However, his advancing years (now a 12 year old) makes this an uphill task.
Glengouly
Typically campaigned over 2 miles 4 furlongs so doesn’t appeal as the most obvious candidate but, interestingly, he did run a cracker in the Thyestes when 2nd on heavy ground. Could go well if he takes to this stamina test.
Galia Des Liteaux
The Skelton’s have a live outsider in this mare. Has run creditably in Grade 1 company as a novice & perhaps ran his best race when 2nd in the Warwick Classic Handicap Chase on her only start over a true staying trip. Disappointed last time out when odds on back over 3 miles but if she can put that blip beyond her, she could go well.
Panda Boy
Shrewd trainer, low weight but skinny price. 5th in the Irish National last year & 2nd in the Paddy Power is top form, & he warmed up with another good run in a handicap hurdle. Good form in big fields & is one of the more solid market leaders but I just think this trip could stretch her.
Eklat De Rire
Goes off at a big price here which is unsurprising given recent form. Was 2nd in a 4 runner race in February but, aside from that, it’s hard to find anything of any note to recommend. Probably the least likely of De Bromhead’s runners.
Chambard
Being a 12 year old is a negative but he did win the Becher Chase in December on this sort of ground. Should give his inexperienced rider, Lucy Turner, a good spin but really shouldn’t be troubling the principles here especially given his recent form.
Kittys Light
Would arguably be the most popular winner & on last year’s form when he won the Eider, the Scottish National & the Bet365 Chase, he holds every chance. His form this year, however, has been nowhere near the required standard & he’s almost certainly a much better horse on better ground. Unfortunately, the weather will put paid to his chance.
VERDICT
Mr Incredible comes here with a great chance. He’s a thorough stayer & one that loves heavy ground. His form over marathon trips is more than acceptable having finished 2nd in the Warwick Classic in January 2023 when staying on well on heavy ground & then going even better again in the Midlands National at Uttoxeter just 4 weeks ago when just a length behind the winner Beauport. He’s just 1lb higher here. He has been over these fences before & jumped well enough until unseating on the second circuit after a case of a slipping saddle. Granted a bit more luck, I really think he’ll run a massive race & certainly won’t be undone by a lack of stamina.
Galia Des Litaux might not be the most solid after only finishing 4th of 5 at Exeter last time out in a Listed Chase when odds on but if you ignore that, he can be given a definite chance. She only gave way in the Warwick Classic Handicap Chase in January late on, where the weight difference perhaps went against her (she was giving almost 2 stone to the winner). She’s won twice on heavy, from 3 starts, and has recorded his RPR on the longest trip she’s faced. Unexposed over staying trips & still lightly raced over fences, any improvement will put her bang in the mix.
Stattler looks to be overpriced & I can see him running a big race here. Now a 9 year old, he’s still only gone over fences 9 times, winning 3 and finishing runner up on a further 3 occasions. He’s had valid excuses the 3 times he’s been out of the frame, with 2 being in Grade 1 company & once in a Cross Country Chase. He’s won once and finished 2nd twice in his 3 starts on heavy, and won on his only start beyond 3 miles 2 furlongs. The way he travelled in that race, the NH Chase in 2022, was eyecatching as he cruised into contention & won with any amount in hand. He has a good shout at a big each way price.
Tips
Back Mr Incredible (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back Galia Des Litaux (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 29.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back them here:
Back Stattler (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-6)
