The race that will stop the world for 10 minutes is finally here as the Randox Grand National takes place at Aintree on Saturday afternoon as 34 runners go to post looking to win the biggest National Hunt horse race in the sport.
Some of the absolute greats have written their name into Aintree folklore by coming out on top in this big race and there are many contenders in what looks to be an extremely competitive renewal of the spectacle. Here is our preview and two picks for the race.
4.00 Aintree: Grand National
Preview
Forget the Gold Cup, forget the King George, this is & will always be the greatest steeplechase in the world. It’s Randox Grand National day & today will see I Am Maximus bid to follow up his win 12 months ago. If he does win for the incredible Mullins / Townend combo, he’ll be talked about in the same manner as other National legends such as the one & only Red Rum and, of course from more recent times, Tiger Roll. However, he has 33 rivals to take on & it’s got a very open feel to it. So much so, in fact, that I’ve swerved the market leaders searching for a bit of value & hoping that, at worst, we can pick up some place money. Let’s be honest, if you’re in contention over the last fence (& there were a lot of those last year!), then anything can happen. You have the elbow to negotiate & a long run-in where horses can come from the clouds or tie up badly late on. That’s what Aintree, this race & a marathon trip of four & a quarter miles can do.
Favourites
The market really is about 8 leading fancies, all currently trading at anything from single figures up to 14/1. You are likely to be able to get 20/1+ on the rest of the field, albeit Kandoo Kid is the one most likely to get in amongst the big 8. So, what of the leading fancies? We have to start with I Am Maximus & whilst he’s the choice of Paul Townend, he’s now 8lbs higher & has only run twice since and might not be as effective on this better ground. 6/1 is not a price to be taking on any horse, let alone on one who’s shown little outside of last year’s win. JP McManus has an incredibly strong hand, saddling the first 3 in the market, & the second favourite is the only one of the front 8 trained in the UK in the shape of Iroko. Trained for the race, he was well backed in the ante post markets but stamina is a question as is his inexperience, being a 7 year old. Perceval Legallois was my initial fancy for the race & is the one I like most from those at the head of the market & he’s won 2 big field handicaps on his most recent starts. I wouldn’t put anyone off him but, conversely, I’m just not a fan of Stumptown. Great over the cross country courses, that is a different test & I actually don’t believe he has the speed to win this, despite the trip. Intense Raffles is just a 7 year old & whilst he has claims, there’s better out there with one of those being Hewick who might be the one staying on best from out of the clouds. I just can’t bring myself to back a 10 year old as being the most likely winner of a race that’s now for the up & coming, improving types. Vanillier has drifted to a decent price & many believe he will turn the tables on Stumptown after almost taking the wrong course at Cheltenham in the cross country. He ran brilliantly here 2 years ago but faded out of contention badly last year & the last of the big 8, having been backed over the last few days, is Minella Cocooner. A winner of the Bet365 Gold Cup, many believe he’ll come out best on the ground but the price has surely gone on him.
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Betting
So, where does that leave us in terms of bets? After having the head deep in the form book (& testing my thoughts with the lucky pin!), I’ve landed on 2 selections:
Meetingofthewaters – in any big race, the name Mullins is feared so the Willie/Danny combo is surely a good thing, right? But that’s not where his chance ends. A winner of 2 of his 9 chase starts, he’s now at the optimum age of 8 & that year older will stand him in good stead after running a cracking race here last year when 7th behind I Am Maximus. That was just his 7th chase start & he travelled as well as any into the race but hit the last ditch & then, in a line with a few others over the last, just didn’t quite get home. Inexperience, that mistake & the ground could all be factors & there’s not a chance I’d label him as a non-stayer because of that. Previous to that, he’d won the Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown so it’s fair to say he’s a classy type. He’s had a much lighter prep this year, with just 3 runs, including a spin over hurdles. His 2 chase runs weren’t great but both were apprentice ridden & I’m convinced the yard have had this in mind all year. Better ground will suit, it’s interesting that Danny Mullins chose this over the other runners from the yard, including Minella Cocooner, & off a 1lb higher mark, I think he has a massive chance.
Senior Chief – sticking with the Irish but moving yards this time, I like the chances of De Bromhead’s second string here. Admittedly, Rachael Blackmore has chosen to ride but that’s unsurprising given Minella Indo’s run to finish 3rd here last year, but no harm in Darragh O’Keeffe taking the ride especially as he won on him in October at Cheltenham. He has no experience of Aintree & is lightly raced over the bigger obstacles but has shown enough to suggest he could go well if he gets into a rhythm. He was pulled up in the Irish National last year but that was just his 4th start & he faced very deep ground which didn’t suit. Previous to that, he ran Minella Cocooner to 2 lengths, albeit beaten easily, on just his second start & is 6lbs better off with that rival today. This term, he opened with that win at Cheltenham where he jumped & travelled well in first time cheekpieces. The narrow margin of victory was merely because he idled in front & was headed, but showed his staying power to get back up. He was then only 6th in the Coral Gold Cup in Newbury, probably the 2nd biggest handicap chase of the season on these shores, where he was outpaced but stayed on to good effect. This firmly put him in the picture for this as he’ll come into his own over a longer trip, I feel. A spin over hurdles last time out will put him spot on here & it’s interesting to note the cheekpieces were left off, only to be reapplied today. Leaving no stone unturned, I feel this lightly raced 8 year old could go very well at a price.
Betting
Back Meetingofthewaters (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Betfred (⅕ odds 1-7)
Back Senior Chief (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 Betfred (⅕ odds 1-7)
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