The final day of golf of the year in the West of the world takes place on Sunday when the Hero World Challenge concludes in the Bahamas and what a thrilling conclusion we are in for.
A star studded field set out in the tournament on Thursday and the cream has really risen to the top over the first three days and it is the two time major champion Bubba Watson who will take a two shot lead into Sunday.
Bubba tied the new course record on Saturday to fire his way to 19 under par and he is now no bigger than 6/5 to convert his lead into another tournament win. Before you get stuck into that price though it is worth remembering the American has only converted two of his nine PGA Tour 54 hole leads so he is anything but a certainty even on a course with five par fives.
That suits him but there is still enough danger lurking around for Bubba to shoot himself in the foot. We’ve seen wayward drives on both 18 on Friday and 14 on Saturday so the former Masters champion doesn’t have this in the bag just yet.
Paul Casey is Bubba’s nearest challenger and what a boost it would be for his Olympic hopes if he can push on and claim the title. He has ruled himself out of the Ryder Cup by passing up his European Tour membership so the Olympics are the big goal for him. He’s on 17 under par.
The chasers are loaded with heavy artillery and big reputations. The two men immediately behind the leading two are Patrick Reed and Chris Kirk. Both men are on 16 under while the world number one Jordan Spieth lurks ominously on 15 under alongside Bill Haas. Brooks Koepka is 14 under with Rickie Fowler, Zach Johnson and Adam Scott all potentially dangerous on 13 under.
The outright market now reflects the tournament positions and unless you wanted to take the 14/1 on Kirk winning from three back there isn’t much value there. Whether Kirk has the competitive juices to get it done on Sunday remains to be seen.
I’m already on Reed outright from before the tournament teed off so I’ve no need to go back into that market. I’ll hope he can come through on Sunday and instead look at the two ball bets for a Sunday punt.
The group that interests me the most is the final pairing of Watson and Casey. I’ve mentioned above how Bubba can struggle when he’s in contention on a Sunday and we’ve seen the odd sign this week that a fragility may not be far away.
In fairness to Paul Casey he was quite brilliant for the first 13 holes on Saturday, going round that stretch in a new course record of nine under par and when you think he only parred the short 14th and the reachable 15th he still has more to give around here which will be a boost for him.
Casey wasn’t able to get it done on the PGA Tour last season but rarely did he shirk the challenge on the Sunday, he just happened to find someone too good in the playoff but I think he’ll go well in this round and I can definitely see him outscoring Watson. Whether that’s enough to win the tournament remains to be seen.
I’ve had so many two ball ties in the last six weeks or so it is untrue so after a dodgy week of punting I’ll play a little safer than usual and take Casey on the draw no bet line and keep the tie out of play. That’s still odds against which is attractive enough.
Back P.Casey to beat B.Watson (DNB) for a 4/10 stake at 2.10 with Skybet
