2000 Guineas
It’s all about the boys as today sees the first Classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas. It’s hard to envisage there being a Frankel in the field but it looks a strong renewal with Dewhurst winner Churchill heading the market.
It is a relatively small field with just 10 runners going to post for this straight mile at Newmarket. The market is quite spread out with 4 trading at 6/1 or less, and the rest at 16/1 or bigger including 3 at triple figure odds.
Churchill – He has won his last 5 races including 2 Group 1’s (National Stakes and the Dewhurst). Aiden O’Brien’s last 3 Dewhurst winners haven’t progressed at 3 and that is a little worry but of more concern would be the ground. He has won on good to firm ground but it was definitely his least convincing victory. With a strong field in opposition and a very short price of 11/8 available, it might be best to leave this one alone.
Barney Roy – Bought by Godolphin after winning his maiden last year at Newmarket and he looked impressive that year powering clear to win by over 3 lengths. His odds are purely down to his good win in the Greenham where he beat Dream Castle by 2 lengths, with the rest being a further 4 lengths back. He is still inexperienced with only 2 runs to his name and has yet to prove he will handle a more unconventional track like Newmarket.
Al Wukair – Trained by a master in Andre Fabre and that alone merits a closer look. He’s won all 3 starts including a Group 3 last time out where he came from last to first in impressive fashion after appearing to be outpaced. That race was run at a fast pace and it’s not certain that will be repeated here. If he’s still in touch 3 furlongs out, his turn of foot will be a big danger to all but there’s a feeling that his last win fell into his lap because of the fast pace.
Eminent – Probably the most interesting runner in the field. He’s from a less fashionable yard than the market leaders but he’s unbeaten in 2 starts, both over course and distance on this ground. He won the Craven last time out and beat some decent yardsticks but will have to improve again. There’s also a slight question mark over whether he will need further in time and, therefore, whether he may be outpaced. However, he’s a versatile sort and wouldn’t be afraid to set the pace if needed. He’s a Frankel colt, he handles the track and will love the ground so the drift in price is surprising and he may just represent a little bit of each way value.
Dream Castle – Another Frankel colt who finished behind Barney Roy last time out. He ran free that day and despite the fitting of a hood, it’s hard to see an extra furlong being in his favour. It would be no surprise to see him dropped to sprinting later on in the year and is not one that should be winning this.
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The rest – There are 3 at 100/1 or more and it’s hard to see any of them troubling the market principles. Those in question are Spirit of Valor. Top Score and Law And Order. The other 2 do have chances; Larchmont Lad finished 5th behind Eminent in the Craven and therefore needs to improve.
Lancaster Bomber has seen the course a few times and has run well in some top races. The key looks to be good or better ground. He won his maiden on good ground and finished 2nd behind Churchill in the Dewhurst on similar ground, when trying to make all. His running style will suit too as it may be hard to come from behind here at Newmarket and he does, obviously, have experience of the track. He then went to America for the Breeders Cup Juvenile on firm ground and finished 2nd after fluffing the start. This season, he’s been over to UAE for the Derby and finished 4th, again after a poor start. If he can fix his exit from the stalls and gets a good position at the head of affairs, he might well prove to difficult to pass and, at the odds, looks worthy of a small each way investment.
Tips
Back Eminent (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 Boylesports BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
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Back Lancaster Bomber (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 29.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
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Newmarket takes centre stage today with the 2000 Guineas but, despite a decent undercard, betting opportunities are limited so it’s back up north for our other bet on a busy day’s racing.
3.40 Thirsk
The big race is the Thirsk Hunt Cup handicap over a mile with a big field of 17. There are very few unexposed horses in this and many of them don’t really look up to winning a Class 2 handicap.
Reaver is the favourite but only managed to win last time out in a Class 4 and has gone up 5lbs for that, whilst Rousayan and Two For Two come here off the back of good runs but step up in class. Lat Hawill isn’t easily dismissed but it’s a horse that finished just behind him last year that carries our hopes.
Spring Offensive – Now a 5 year old and a winner of 4 of his 20 races but he looks to be as good as ever and has every chance today. He will love this good to firm ground and he has recorded his 2 top RPRs on this ground, finished 3rd at Haydock on his last start of last season and winning at Ripon.
That win at Ripon was off 88 and he does race off 93 today but has a 7lb claimer on board today which makes his mark look reasonable. His only run this term was in the Irish Lincoln on unsuitably soft ground off 1lb higher. He finished a creditable 5th of 17 that day. He has been kept off the track since then as he goes well fresh so a 41 day break is a definite positive.
His stable is in decent nick, the horse has a decent draw in stall 9 and he should appreciate this flattish track. He likes to race just in behind the pace so shouldn’t be having too much trouble in running and he certainly doesn’t have to find much to be involved in the shake up here.
Tips
PLACED – Back Spring Offensive (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 Betfred BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
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