Horse racing – Sunday 20th March
Over in Ireland, the turf flat season is upon us and the big race is the Irish Lincoln, 2 weeks ahead of the English equivalent. It’s that race we concentrate on for today’s horse racing bets.
4.55pm Curragh: Irish Lincoln
A field of 22 for an interesting renewal of the Irish Lincoln. This race has fallen to all sorts in the past; improving, unexposed youngsters to battle hardened handicappers so there’s no real age or handicap angle. There are, however, 4 strong trends in that the last 10 winners were all rated between 84 and 102, had won over at least this far (1 mile), had no more than 5 flat wins and had yet to win a race worth over 15K to the winner.
Applying those 4 would narrow this field to 8 including the 3 market leaders, Ashraf, Cailin Mor and Aussie Valentine. Ashraf is the current 9/2 favourite and that looks plenty short enough in such a handicap. That said, he’s open to any amount of improvement being a 4 year old with only 3 runs under his belt. He really could be anything and is not a horse we could easily oppose coming from the Dermot Weld stable, but inexperience and an opening mark of 97 would still make it a risky bet. Because of the many possible theories open to us, we’d prefer to remove this ‘issue’ and bets in this race will be restricted to the ‘without Ashraf’ market.
Cailin Mor comes next in the betting and is another progressive 4 year old, running off a mark of 91. Recent form of 1-2-2-3-1 is mightily impressive but that has seen her handicap mark go up sharply and the trainer feels the assistance of a 7lb claimer is the best option to defy yet any rise. We are not so sure as inexperience in these big handicaps counts for jockeys as much as it does for horses. The other concern would be the bigger field and, therefore, likely fast pace could bring into question whether she’ll truly stay. The only time she faced a big field over this trip, she skipped clear but was collared close home.
Aussie Valentine returns to the scene of his 2nd in this race 12 months ago to Onenightidreamed, who also bids to follow up here. He’s 11/1 to go one better but is 6lb higher this time around. The worry for backers of Aussie Valentine would be that the ground is not likely to be soft enough.
The other 5 that fit the trends are all trading at bigger prices. Spring Offensive is the shortest of these and comes over from England, and is one of 3 Richard Fahey horses to take their chance. 16/1 is too short based on average form across the water and looks the stable 3rd string on jockey bookings. Vivat Rex looks outclassed at 50/1, whilst Lilys Rainbow is not out of this having raced mainly in listed races. She’s a lively 50/1 shot but Wayne Lordan jumping ship will prove to be harmful to her chances.
It is from the last 2 of the 8 that our big priced each way bets come, both in the ‘without Ashraf’ market. Rivers Of Babylon is another horse with listed form that has been plying this trade mainly in small fields, she’s only a 4 year old and has yet to win a handicap but doesn’t look that badly handicapped off 93. On only her 2nd start as a 2 year old, she finished runner up behind the high class Together Forever and then won 2 of her first 3 starts last year. She then ran well in Listed races, generally keeping on well in the later stages, something that will be needed here where a horse that truly stays a mile plus is needed. Drying ground is in her favour and this return to a bigger field will see her in a better light. Billy Lee takes the ride which we’re pleased about and, from a decent draw, we expect her to stay on to good effect at the business end.
Similar comments about a horse’s ability to stay apply to our 2nd bet, Nebulla. He’s raced only 6 times and looks to be a horse to follow as a 4 year old. A really interesting statistic is that the trainer of Nebulla, the excellent John Oxx, has surprisingly only saddled 2 runners in this in the last 10 runners. One won, the other ran into a place. This horse is the only horse he has entered up to run in the next week and you can be pretty sure he isn’t coming here for the day out. He has been campaigned over further than this trip, starting off last year over 7 furlong before 3 runs at trips from 1 mile 2 furlongs upwards. He ran his best race at this track over 2 furlongs further than today when finishing 6th in a 21 runner race over a mark of 92. He gets in here off just 87. Last time out, he didn’t the 12 furlongs so the drop in trip and slightly easier ground will suit. It appears that ground on the easy side of good is what we’ll get here and that’s exactly what our horse needs. Recent form figures may not be the most obvious but we are still surprised by the available odds on a horse from such powerful connections.
Back Rivers Of Babylon (e/w) in the ‘without Ashraf’ market for a 0.5/10 stake at 29.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-4)
Back Nebulla (e/w) in the ‘without Ashraf’ market for a 0.5/10 stake at 23.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-4)
Back them here:
