Rest of Aintree – Day 1
There are 6 other races on Day 1, in addition to the feature Betfair Bowl and we’ll take a look at the main 3. However, there appears to be a lack of real betting opportunities and it might be a case of keeping our powder dry for another day, with the exception of a speculative punt in the Aintree Hurdle.
1.40 – Manifesto Novices Chase
A novice chase where Top Notch is out to prove he’s exactly that. He was 2nd at Cheltenham to Yorkhill and, after his win in Scilly Isles, he looks the one to beat.
There are no shortage of challengers though with Arkle 2nd Cloudy Dream likely to improve returned to a flatter track whilst Frodon is another who’ll appreciate conditions. A small field but it looks a really competitive race. One to sit back and enjoy.
2.20 – Anniversary 4 Year Old Hurdle
Defi Du Seuil won the Triumph in such taking fashion, he’s impossible to oppose here. Odds of 2/7 suggest as such.
3.25 – Aintree Hurdle
Similar comments apply here with Champion Hurdle Buveur D’Air the favourite at 4/11. Whilst the Aintree Hurdle is run over an extra half mile, I still cannot be opposing him but there may be value elsewhere in the ‘without the favourite’ market.
The 5 others in the field are headed by stalwarts, The New One and My Tent Or Yours. The New One looks the most obvious but a fall in this last season isn’t ideal whilst I think he’s better on softer ground. He is the one most likely to give the favourite a race and if he tries to outrun him, I think his stamina may give in at a crucial stage.
My Tent Or Yours was 2nd in the Champion Hurdle but, to me, he’s a 2 miler. Whilst he was 2nd here last year, he was miles behind Annie Power and his stamina was giving out 2 from home. I’d rather look elsewhere.
Identity Thief is a former high class hurdler and that’s surely the reason for his price. He’s been campaigned over fences for the last 12 months so it’s a return to hurdles today and a tough one at that.
Old Guard looks outclassed so I’m going to side with the dark horse of the race, 5 year old Irish raider Rashaan. This has long been the plan for this horse and I’m always pleased when a horse coming to Aintree has missed Cheltenham because Aintree was the focus. He’s progressed through the ranks quickly and, whilst his form has been at 2 miles, this easy track will suit and there’s enough to suggest he’ll be suited by the extra distance. As a 4 year old, he was at one point antepost favourite for the Triumph and this season he has good form in the book. He beat both Apples Jade and leading Champion Hurdle fancy, Petit Mouchoir in November on his favoured good ground. His only run over hurdles since was when behind Tombstone and Jezki on heavy ground. In both those races, he finished off well and suggested he needed stepping up in trip. With the ground in his favour, I expect him to run a massive race.
Back Rashaan (e/w) in the ‘without Buveur D’Air’ market for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.00 BetVictor (¼ odds 1-2)
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