As is the norm, there’s plenty of racing to get stuck into with Classic Trials at Lingfield, a high class mixed card at Haydock and a typically decent card at Ascot with the feature being the Victoria Cup. It is at the latter one of the 3 tracks where our focus lies with bets in the opening race as well as the big handicap.
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2.15 Ascot
The opening race on the card is a Class 3 handicap over a mile and a half. At 9/2 the field, it’s an open looking event with the 3 at the head of the market being Appeared, Lord George and Mohatem.
The first named of that trio holds a favourite’s chance and is from last year’s winning connections. He did win well 3 starts ago but didn’t totally convince of his higher mark in 2 runs since but should make up into a better horse this year after being gelded. Lord George, meanwhile, has top weight and ran a cracker last time on the all weather at Newcastle but a 3lb rise is enough to send me looking elsewhere. The last named, Mohatem, won well last time out when trotting up at Yarmouth off a 7lb lower mark. His new mark, coupled with a rise in grade, makes him a tad short in the betting. Instead, it’s worth searching a bit further down for a bit of value.
William Hunter – He comes from a yard better known for its jumpers but whose flat runners are running really well at present. Interestingly, the stable has just one runner at Ascot. With just 14 runs under his belt, this 5 year old is still lightly raced and he showed progressive form last term, winning 3.
His final win was over course and distance in this grade off 4lb lower. Today, he has a useful 3lb claimer on board, effectively offsetting ¾ of that weight rise. The key to this horse is that he needs to be held up off a decent pace and doesn’t want producing too early as he can idle in front. Pace is not guaranteed but there are 2 or 3 that could conceivably make the running so a chance is taken that they go fast enough for our selection.
Since that win last autumn, he’s run 4 times. He was stepped up to Class 2 company for his final 2 starts of last year, finishing near the back in a 7 runner race run at no pace. That run can be ignored, and that was proven when he finished 4th in the November Handicap won by top rate performer, Prize Money. He didn’t have the best run up the inside rail and perhaps should have finished closer.
In 2 runs this year, he’s had no luck. The Rosebery at Kempton wasn’t run to suit and it’s not certain he enjoyed the all weather whilst last time out at Epsom, Galapiat dictated a snails pace and stole the race from the front. It’s very likely the pace will be stronger today and with the course suiting, he’s a big looking price to be in the mix.
Tips
Back William Hunter (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
4.00 Ascot
The Victoria Cup is a typically tough big field handicap puzzle and it normally pays to take one from either side of the draw as the effect here at Ascot is hard to predict. That’s just as well as our 2 fancies are drawn on opposite sides.
The Spring Cup is looking like a potentially good guide to this race with Fastnet Tempest the current favourite. He perhaps should have won but for wandering around late on whilst George William (4th) was finishing fast too. One of our fancies comes from that race and the other is a progressive 4 year old with course form.
Taurean Star – This is the progressive 4 year old from towards the foot of the handicap who likes Ascot. A winner of 3 of his 10 races, he is a last time out winner having won cosily off a 2lb lower mark. The handicapper has been lenient especially as the whip wasn’t drawn despite winning by only a neck.
He is drawn in 7 but likes to be held up so his accomplished jockey is more than capable of tacking across to the other rail if needs be. Our selection has run 4 times at the track, winning twice and running creditably on the other 2 occasions. On his seasonal reappearance last term, he won here over a mile beating Banksea who was the winner of that Spring Cup race this year. That is top form.
His 5 runs since have come off a mark 2lb lower than today’s and include a 9th in the Britannia on ground too soft and a 5th here when not the clearest of runs trying to come off the pace. A muddling gallop didn’t help in his other 2 defeats last years.
A fast pace should be guaranteed here and conditions are in our horse’s favour. He looks capable of making into a Group performer this year and this should be the first step to that target.
Bossy Guest – Drawn in 24, he’s on the other side from Taurean Star but looks to have a solid chance. Our selection has only won 3 of his 22 starts but 9 of those runs have been in Listed or Group company. His last win came in the 3 year old Tattersalls Millions 2 years ago and since then, he’s raced in just 5 handicaps.
He was 6th of 28 in last year’s Royal Hunt Cup, proving he handles both the track and a big field, and that was despite the ground being much too soft. He also impressed on his seasonal reappearance when making similar progress to George William from off the pace, finishing 1 position and half a length behind. His mark remains unchanged which is surprising given the trip he had. His jockey switched him from a low draw in 5 and he came home wider than anything on the other side of the track.
Let’s not forget this horse was 4th in the 2000 Guineas in 2015 behind Gleneagles and finished 3rd in that season’s Jersey Stakes over this course and distance.
The jockey booking looks interesting and the stable have reached for one of the best, a jockey who has only ridden once for stable since 2015.
Tips
Back Taurean Star (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
Back Bossy Guest (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 BetVictor BOG (¼ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
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