It is a huge night of racing across the pond on Saturday as the attention falls firmly on Santa Anita when the Breeders Cup, one of the biggest races in the world headlines the action with some top quality horses going to post.
The best part of this meeting is the standard of the support races and that looks fantastic on Saturday. After a good scour of the card we’ve come up with a selection in the big race and two on the undercard.
7.10 Santa Anita
Preview
One of the big hopes for European success is in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf over a trip of a mile & a quarter, with the 2 dominating the market being the Gosden’s Inspiral & O’Brien’s Warm Heart. It will be hard to keep both out of the frame, with the former coming here off the back of 2 Group 1 wins but of slight concern being a new trip going a quarter of a mile further than she’s ever been before. Conversely, Warm Heart seems to be better over a mile & a half. Both have Group 1 form in the book &, at different trips, would have been impossible to oppose.
Betting
A couple at bigger prices, Lindy & Fev Rover, could go well but I like the chances of IN ITALIAN to go one better than when caught close home in this 12 months ago. She goes from the front & has the plum draw in 1 at a track that is favouring front runners this week. Her form this week has been strong, winning her first 2 in Grade 1 company before being edged out by no more than a head in her last 2, again both in Grade 1 company. With conditions in her favour, it seems unlikely she’ll finish out of the frame & is a strong fancy to get us off to a good start.
Tips
Back IN ITALIAN (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 7.50 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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8.30 Santa Anita
Preview
The Breeders Cup Mile is always a cracking watch & this year looks no exception. It’s one of the best races for the Europeans & quite often falls to a fancied runner. The winner of the 1000 Guineas, Mawj, is the favourite and for all she looks to have a great chance, I’m a little put off by the fact she’s only been seen once since, albeit when winning a Grade 1 at Keeneland just over 2 weeks ago. Triple Grade 1 Japanese raider, Songline, has a cracking chance & will be one of those most favoured by the fast ground whilst Godolphin’s Master Of The Seas could go well if not inconvenienced by his wide draw.
Betting
However, it’s the French horse KELINA who takes my eye. She has both speed & stamina, and I’ve long been convinced she’s a better filly the faster the ground. Her form on soft or worse reads 1-0-2-4-8 as opposed to good to soft or better reading 1-1-7-1. Conditions seem perfect; firstly, the track favours speedy types & it’s worth noting she won last time up when getting the better of Kinross in Group 1 company in the Foret and secondly, ground conditions as already mentioned. She’s still lightly raced & the owners have good memories of this race having saddled Goldikova to win some years back. Beyond the front 5 in the market, I’m not sure there’s a load of depth & with question marks over a few of the market leaders & 4 places on offer, she looks an each way bet to nothing.
Tips
Back KELINA (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 6.50 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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10.40 Santa Anita
Preview
The big one, the Breeders Cup Classic, and it’s more of a betting proposition this year after superstar Flightline’s bloodless success last year. There’s a field of 12 with front running Arabian Knight the likely favourite but I worry about his draw in 12 given his need to lead. A winner of her last 5 starts, all on dirt, Japanese horse Ushba Tesoro should go well & certainly has form in the book having won the Dubai World Cup early in the year. White Abarrio’s form had been nothing special until winning a Grade 1 by 6 lengths last time out but whether he’ll repeat that is anyone’s guess. Bright Future & Proxy are closely matched on a recent running & I think both could run decent races.
Betting
However, it’s SAUDI CROWN that is carrying my money here. Very lightly raced indeed, he’s improved from run to run for a yard that is in form & has an excellent Breeders Cup record. The big concern is whether the battle for the lead with Arabian Knight will lead to the pace collapsing but, if not, he’s going to be difficult to pass. He’s been beaten twice by just a nose but last time out, his first time in Grade 1 company, he landed the Pennsylvania Derby by just over half a length with the front pair coming some 6 lengths clear of the rest of the field. That was on sloppy going & I feel he’ll improve for different conditions & a slightly longer trip. On figures, he should be shorter in the market & I do feel he’s open to more improvement than many. Aside from the one pace battle concern, I cannot see him being out of the frame.
Tips
Back SAUDI CROWN (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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