The greatest 2 minutes in sport, the “run of the roses”, arguably the biggest horse race in the world, it’s the 144th running of the Kentucky Derby.
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Preview
The rich & famous will descend on Louisville to watch the best 3 year old boys battling it out over 10 furlongs around the sharp turns of Churchill Downs. With a big field, it will make it hard for those drawn out wide whilst those low will need plenty of toe early doors to get a decent seat.
Good recent form is critical in this race with the last 8 winners all finishing in the first 2 last time out, most in a Grade 1, with the last 7 all winning. All of them recorded a RPR of at least 113 on their most recent outing.
Favourites
20 bid to follow into footsteps of the likes of California Chrome, American Pharoah & Nyquist; the two that everyone is talking about this year are the US trained Justify & Aiden O’Brien’s Mendelssohn. The former is 3 from 3 but is bidding to overcome the curse of Apollo & be the first horse for decades to win this having been unraced as a 2 year old. Whilst that shouldn’t put anyone off, I do think inexperience will be an issue as well as the big field. He likes to dictate the pace & that’s unlikely here.
Mendelssohn comes here having won the UAE Derby by an astonishing 18 lengths but the track favoured front runners that day like nothing I’ve ever seen & the record of UAE Derby runners here is, quite frankly, rubbish. Personally, I think both favourites have chances but are opposable.
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Betting
Todd Pletcher runs 4 and I wouldn’t put anyone off Magnum Moon or Vino Rosso but I am concerned by their wide draws. Vino Rosso is definitely a horse to stay on the right side of but maybe another leg of the Triple Crown will be his time.
I do, however, have a strong liking for one of the yard’s other runners, Audible. He’s got a perfect pitch in 5 & anyone looking at draw stats will know 5 is the stall producing the most winners. I hope that’s an omen. He’s won both his starts this year, beating other Derby runners convincingly in the process. He won a Grade 2 at Gulfstream Park by over 5 lengths before following up at the same track in the Florida Derby over 9 furlongs, staying on strongly down the straight. His jockey is one of the more reliable ones in the race & all the stats are in his favour. Progressing nicely, I think he’ll go very close.
The other one I am a fan of is Bolt D’Oro, who was 3 lengths 2nd to Justify last time out. That was in the Santa Anita Derby where Justify dictated the pace but there was plenty to like about the runner up’s run, pulling almost 7 lengths clear of the 3rd. He was brilliant as a 2 year old, winning 3 in great style before having the run in the Breeders Cup finishing only 3rd. Back to his best, he’d be the one to beat & I’m sure he’s been laid out for this. He does have one win this term but he was awarded the race in controversial fashion. With a strong pace to chase here, I see him running a massive race & turning the tables on Justify. His current odds are just too big, especially with a big race jockey in the plate.
Tips
PLACED AT 8/1 – Back Audible (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 7.50 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-4)
Back Bolt D’Oro (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-4)
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