We are 24 hours away from the first Classic race of the 2023 UK flat racing season with the Guineas meeting actually beginning on Friday but the 2000 Guineas not taking place until Saturday. Before then, there are a number of meetings to get stuck into on Friday.
As ever at this time of the year we have afternoon and evening meetings to enjoy but with many trainers keeping their powder dry ahead of a big weekend there isn’t too much which takes our fancy. We have picked out a couple in a race at Cork though.
6.25 Cork
Preview
There’s a field of 21 for this valuable Premier handicap over the straight 7 furlongs and, despite its competitiveness, we still have a clear favourite with Billy Lee’s mount, All Lies Ahead, heading the market at around 4/1. This progressive filly has only had 3 handicap starts with form figures of 2-1-2 but this is without doubt her toughest assignment yet so a further 2lbs rise in weights for an almost 4 lengths defeat last time isn’t ideal. Cheers Again was narrowly edged out on reappearance here in a race won by Joe Masseria and a 3lbs rise seems more than fair given he was only beaten on the bob. The concern is whether he’s as effective on this better ground. Ado McGuinness often goes mob-handed into these big handicaps and this is no exception as he saddles 6. Figuring out which is his best is tough enough, the betting suggests Tosen Wish but I have other ideas as one of his makes up one of my two bets in this cracking handicap.
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Betting
No More Porter – I’ve landed on this one as the best of Ado McGuinness’ and he’s a horse I like and backed on his reappearance in the Irish Lincoln. He did ok for us that day, finishing in the places when 5th of 27 behind Lattam off this mark. He does love a big field with finishes of 1/30, 3/15, 3/15, 2/27, 4/18, 3/17, 10/16, 7/25 and 2/20 his other handicap results in field sizes of 15 or more. His handicap mark hasn’t moved much as he often runs well without winning but I’m hoping today’s the day he gets back into the winners enclosure. He is versatile with regards to trip, going well at any distance up to a mile, and ground doesn’t bother him either so this better ground won’t be an excuse, which isn’t something we can say for a lot of his rivals today. I like his middle draw too and with plenty going for him, he should run a big race.
San Aer – Another with a middle draw, I just cannot leave him out of calculations here. Whilst his last 7 runs have all come on soft or worse ground, he’s another where the ground shouldn’t inconvenience. In fact, he won his last start on good ground back in August under this jockey and has other form on firmish ground too. He’s been highly progressive recently and since winning that good ground race in August off a mark of 71, he finished last season with a 2nd in a big field Curragh handicap off 75 before winning a 17 runner handicap at Galway off 77. He closed with a 4th of 16 at Naas despite having been raised 7lbs, proving that a mark in the mid-80’s may not be beyond him. This term, he opened up by finishing 1 place in front of No More Porter in the Irish Lincoln before an unlucky 8th of 13 in that handicap won by Joe Masseria here. That day, he missed the break by a good 4 lengths but was just over 3 lengths down at the line. Had he have broken on terms, it’s likely he’d have been in the final reckoning so his mark being unchanged is no bad thing but then you add to that a top apprentice taking 5lbs off his mark and he is potentially the best handicapped horse in the race.
Tips
Back No More Porter (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Betway BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
Back San Aer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.50 Paddy Power BOG (⅕ odds 1-6)
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