4.30 Epsom: The Derby
The greatest flat race in the world, the Epsom Derby, is upon us. First run in 1780, the race is for 3 year old colts and fillies over a trip of 1 mile and 4 furlongs. This year’s renewal is probably the most open in years and any number are in with chances.
In the last 10 years, there’s been 4 winning favourites and no winner has started at odds longer than 7/1. In that time, Aiden O’Brien has won the race 3 times and overseas trainers have plundered a further 3 winners (2 from Ireland, 1 from France). Golden Horn won the race last year for John Gosden and Frankie Dettori, and that combo are responsible for this year’s jolly, Wings Of Desire.
There’s a few interesting stats for me that shouldn’t be overlooked; 9 of the last 10 winners had recorded a RPR of at least 82 on their debut, had also recorded their best RPR on their most recent run achieving a rating of at least 112 in the process and had previously won a Group race. Despite a big field of 16 runners, only 4 runners fit the bill; Wings Of Desire, the French trained Cloth Of Stars and 2 of O’Brien’s 5 in the race, Deauville and Port Douglas.
Wings Of Desire has seen the racecourse just 3 times, winning his last 2 including the Dante last time out. Following that run, he was supplemented for this but the race wasn’t the strongest and the pace was steady. Epsom will be a totally different proposition and I’m concerned by the negative vibes following Breakfast with the Stars. He’s just not my idea of value, a comment I can also apply to Ulysses for the Sir Michael Stoute yard. Another to have raced 3 times but each of those runs were in maidens. His 2nd to Imperial Aviator looks decent on paper as that horse has since been entered in the French Derby and he couldn’t have been more impressive winning his maiden last time out by 8 lengths. He will surely improve but needs to, and quite significantly too.
O’Briens 5 is headed by Ryan Moore’s choice US Army Ranger who was winter favourite for this before scrambling home in the Chester Vase ahead of stablemate Port Douglas. Odds of 6/1 are skinny on what’s he achieved but you can never write off an O’Brien / Moore charge. The 2nd horse that day, Port Douglas, trades at almost 3 times the price and gave US Army Ranger 4lb that day too but the fact Moore had the choice and didn’t choose him would be a concern. Deauville is the 2nd string based on the betting and that’s largely based on an enterprising ride in the Dante where Wings Of Desire only got past late on. On a line with the favourite, he represents each way value at 12/1 but whether he’ll repeat that is anyone’s guess. I can’t be fancying his other 2, Idaho and Shogun.
I’d love to see Red Verdon run a big race for Ed Dunlop. He won in good style at Haydock 2 weeks ago but that was only a handicap so needs to improve 15-20lbs to land this. Harzand is prominent in the betting too, winning his last 2 including a Group 3 last time out. However, his 2 wins have come on heavy ground so the form has to be questioned whilst it’s doubtful whether the ground will be soft enough.
The 2 horses that were last off my shortlist were Massaat and Moonlight Magic. The former arguably has the best form on offer for rookie trainer, Owen Burrows, but stamina is the big question. He’s the 2000 Guineas runner up and has also finished 2nd in the Dewhurst as a 2 year old but I think a big field, fast pace and ground on the soft side of good may just prove too much on the stamina front. Moonlight Magic is trained in Ireland by the excellent Jim Bolger. A winner of 3 of his 4 races, he will stay and will like the ground. A good early position in this race is crucial so his draw in stall 1 is offputting and he’s therefore overlooked.
This brings me to the selection, 3rd favourite Cloth Of Stars who, as mentioned earlier, fits my key trends. His trainer Andre Fabre is a master and was responsible for 2011 winner, Pour Moi. He’s raced 6 times to date, has won 4 including a hat trick of Group races. He’s a workmanlike type who will love the step up to this trip and handles all ground equally. Fabre brought him over for Breakfast with the Stars and he handled the track well. His tendency to be quick out of the gates is a positive here, something his jockey Mickael Barzalona has already touched upon, and I feel the likely fast pace will help him settle as the one worry is his tendency to pull.
His trainer hasn’t brought him here for the day out and when Fabre sends one over to these shores, you’d be foolish to ignore him. This horse has proven form and even his 2 defeats are easy to explain. He pulled hard but still finished close up in excellent Group races. He has a nice draw in 14 and I think odds of 7/1 (paying 4 places) is good value in an open contest.
Epsom: The Derby Bets
Back Cloth Of Stars (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.00 Coral (¼ odds 1-4 BOG)
Bet here :
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