It’s here, the real start of the flat season with Horse Racing from Doncaster and Kempton. The big Doncaster meeting featuring the 2 big handicaps, the Lincoln and the consolation race, the Spring Mile.
We have selections in both of those events plus a further bet on the all-weather at Kempton. All 3 races are previewed below, starting with the big one, the Lincoln.
2.45pm Doncaster: Lincoln
As usual, a maximum field for this straight track handicap over a mile. In these sorts of events, it normally pays to take a look at the draw. In this (and the Spring Mile), it is less about being drawn low or high but more about being drawn near the pace. There appears to be a distinct lack of pace in this year’s renewal so we’re actually favouring something that likes to sit relatively handily and, if there is any pace, it’s probably drawn in the middle 1/3rd, favouring neither rail.
In the last 10 years, 2 favourites have prevailed but none for 6 years, and we’ve seen winners up to a juicy price of 25/1. In an attempt to narrow down the field, we’ve looked for the strongest trends. We need a horse aged between 4 and 6 years old that ran in a handicap last time out, has won over at least 1 mile and either comes here fresh or having wintered in Dubai. In addition, this isn’t a race that apprentice jockeys excel in, despite their claim. The quality of the field nowadays normally means we have a pattern performer or 2 in the field so we really need a professional doing the steering.
Applying these filters, we are left with just 4 runners and they all sit in the top 6 in the betting, but the shortlist does not include the favourite. Namely, the 4 horses are Udododontu, Mutakarez, Express Himself and Storm Rock, and it is from these that our 2 selections come.
Udododontu is an improving 4 year old that is now with Saeed Bin Suroor having being trained by Richard Guest throughout his 3 year old campaign, and he represents our first bet. He’s raced just 8 times, winning 3 and finished 2nd a further 3 times, and looks unexposed with so few miles on the clock. He has solid big field handicap form having been edged out in the Britannia at Royal Ascot last season off a mark of 88. Admittedly, he has a mark of 102 today but this race is all about lightly raced potential improvers and he can certainly be put into that category. He arrives here fit from a couple of runs in Meydan where he won a handicap off 94 before finishing 2nd, clear of the rest of the field, to a good benchmark in Carry On Deryck. The only question is his suitability to soft ground although he did run well on it in a 2 year old maiden when 2nd at a monster price of 50/1.
Our second selection is Brian Meehan’s Mutakarez. He looks to be a horse that will be perfectly suited by today’s conditions and he should get his preferred good or slightly easier going, whilst being drawn well in stall 15. Last year, he appeared to be a horse going places when winning both the Esher Cup at Sandown and the Silver Bowl at Haydock. He quickened up stylishly on both occasions, putting the races to bed in a matter of strides. That saw his handicap mark raised from 85 to 101 but the way he won off 95 at Haydock suggested pattern races beckoned. It was therefore disappointing to see him finish midfield in the Britannia but it’s almost certain that fast ground was to blame. He hasn’t raced since but he has been gelded and that should help a horse that wasn’t always the most straightforward as a 3 year old. Connections are likely to see this as a stepping stone to bigger and better things, and a big run is expected.
We reluctantly passed over Express Himself and Storm Rock. The former has a stiff mark having been raised 8lbs for a narrow win last time out but, unlike the 2 selections, he doesn’t have the untapped potential they have. Storm Rock, meanwhile, needs true soft ground and we just feel that good to soft, which is likely, might still be a tad quick for him.
The current favourite is Lord Of The Land and there is just no good reason to see him at odds of 5/1. Of course he has potential and he’s come from the French yard of Andre Fabre but this has all the hallmarks of a weak favourite. The other horse in the top half dozen in the market is Ryan Moore’s mount Brave Zolo who has been running really well on the all-weather. This is a different ball game altogether and we’d be surprised if he’s good enough.
This doesn’t look the most vintage renewal of the race and we feel that the market principals, with solid form in the book, will hold sway and the 2 selections look to represent the ones with the least to prove amongst the leading fancies.
Lincoln Tips:
Back Udododontu (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Skybet (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
Back Mutakarez (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
Back it here:
2.15pm Doncaster: Spring Mile
The consolation race that many perceive provides clues to the draw but, as stated earlier, it’s all about the pace. In this race, the pace looks pretty evenly spread.
The top weights are normally favoured in this as many were leading fancies for the main race before being balloted out so we like to concentrate on those carrying 9st7lb or more, like 7 of the last 8 winners. All 8 of those winners were making their seasonal reappearance and, in keeping with the Lincoln, we are looking for a horse that has won over the trip.
The good news is that our 2 original fancies fulfil this criteria and are 2 of only 3 qualifiers. Azraff is the mount of Ryan Moore and is trained by Marco Botti who has talked up the horse’s chances. Moore was booked over 3 weeks ago as it was thought Azraff would get in the Lincoln. That is a statement in itself and suggests to us that connections are very confident of his chances. He hasn’t won since his 2 year old days where he won one on soft ground and the other on good. He is definitely suited by a bit of cut and looks to be on a decent mark. Things weren’t entirely straightforward last term but he’s been gelded since which is another positive sign. A change of headgear is another telling factor and his winless campaign last year means his handicap mark may prove to be lenient as he looks to be a Group horse in the making. In a race that lacks depth, he should go close.
Donncha has top weight and is our 2nd selection for this race. He’s drawn on the opposite side of the track from Azraff so we have representation on both rails should one side be favoured. He’s another who has form on soft ground but the really striking factor is his form in big field handicaps. 3rd of 20 in a 7 furlong heritage handicap at Ascot and 4th of 20 in the 1 mile Balmoral handicap is form not many of this field can boast. He’s won 4 of his 13 starts, and those handicap runs were off marks of 96 and 97. When you consider he races off 97 today but has a good 3lb claimer on board, he has the look of a well handicapped horse. We’re torn as whether being apprentice ridden is a negative but at 16/1, we’re prepared to take our chance.
The other horse to fulfil the above criteria is Instant Attraction but 40/1 reflects his true chance. The 2 market leaders are Predominance from the Haggas yard and Keystroke, a winner on the all-weather for Jeremy Noseda. Both represent leading yards and are probably priced based on that. Neither can easily be dismissed but Keystroke has a stiff looking mark whilst Predominance isn’t a working man’s price at skinny odds of just 4/1.
Spring Mile Tips:
Back Azraff (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 9.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
PLACED – Back Donncha (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
Back them here:
2.30pm Kempton
That’s the 22 runner handicaps solved so we move to a more sedate 7 furlong handicap with a field of 10. Whilst this is a Class 2 for horses rated 0-105, there’s only 1 rated 100+ and another 2 over 93. All the favoured horses are those lower rated horses but we like to favour class and are heading to the top of the handicap for our bet.
Intransigent is rated 102 and is the clear class horse in the field but, bar Burn The Boats, is the outsider of the field. He’s now a 7 year old and a veteran of 49 career races, winning 7. He’s not raced in a handicap off this low a mark since 2013 and when you couple that with the fact he’s still running well, 12/1 looks a big price. He last raced 8 days ago at the All Weather Championships finishing midfield behind impressive winner Alben Star but ran better than his finishing position suggests. He was held up and made some good late progress to finish 7th but was only half a length off finishing 4th. He beat 2 horses rated 109 there, off level weights.
He’s not won since November 2014 but this is one of his easiest assignments since. He gets in here off 102 and has Rob Hornby taking a further 3lb off. Intransigent also has a good record at Kempton, winning twice but never out of the first 3 at the track in 7 attempts. The step back up to 7 furlongs will suit as he’s normally finishing his races well.
Of his rivals, none appear to be that well handicapped. Crazy Chic and Brigliadoro are last time out losers with penalties, upped in grade, Shyron boasts winning form but returns to a mark he’s struggled to win off before and Solar Flair has potential but has only won off 10lb lower in 3 grades lower.
Grey Mirage or Georgian Bay, both previous winners of this race, are the ones most likely to benefit should Intransigent fail to shine and these 3 would be the ones for combination forecast backers (if you’re brave enough).
2.30 Kempton Tips:
Back Intransigent (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
