The flat season gets underway in Doncaster on Saturday with the Lincoln Handicap the headline race on the opening day. We have previewed that in an ante-post preview earlier in the week with two of our selections slashed in price and well fancied. It is now time to pick out some bets on the remainder of the card. We’ll attack the first two races.
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1.50 Doncaster: Cammidge Trophy
Preview
The opening race of the flat turf season sees a good line up for the Listed Cammidge Trophy over 6 furlongs. There’s a field of 11 headed by Dean Ivory’s Stewards Cup winner, 110 rated Lancelot Du Lac. He clearly has a good chance here but I’m convinced that his Stewards Cup win was in spite of the soft ground rather than because of it, and, with some decent opposition who like the softer conditions, I think he could be vulnerable. Add to that the fact he’s probably better on the all-weather, I think he’s plenty short enough at odds of around 3/1.
Perfect Pasture is an improving 8 year old having won a pair of Class 2 handicaps before finishing a length back in 2nd over this course & distance at the back end of last year in the Listed Wentworth Stakes. Despite winning first time up last season, he’d not really had a good record fresh prior to that and, with the stable yet to fire, he’s another I can ignore at the current odds.
Betting
Despite having something to find on the formbook with both the aforementioned rivals, I am sweet on the chances of Danzeno. The champion jockey is on board & the yard is in excellent form but there’s much more to his chance than that. Firstly, I think half the field could conceivably make the running here so I’m hoping the race is set up for a closer and, if that is the case, it will suit my selection who has a tendency to start slowly. He has been to Dubai for the winter & ran 3 times at Meydan. Admittedly he didn’t show much but his trainer is quite bullish stating that he’s come back in good shape & is ready to go.
Form wise, there’s enough to recommend him. He was 7th & less than 3 lengths behind Lancelot Du Lac in the Stewards Cup but is 6lbs better off today. More importantly, the move by the winner’s jockey to tack over to the rail probably helped so, in theory, the 3 lengths over exaggerated the margin of defeat. He also finished 2 lengths behind Perfect Pasture when 3rd in the Wentworth but made significant ground from the back of the field in a race strongly favouring prominent racers. Today’s conditions should suit much more.
With doubts about many of the rest of the field (class, run style or fitness), I think Danzeno should be hard to keep out of the frame.
Tips
Back Danzeno (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
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2.25 Doncaster: Spring Mile Handicap
Preview
The consolation race for those who failed to make the Lincoln but, as usual, this looks a cracking race. Recently, progressive & lightly raced types (normally 4 year olds) have held sway & they have been coming from the top end of the handicap. I see no reason to believe that will change & the market has it about right with the front 4 all within 3lbs of top weight, with 3 of them being 4 year olds & the other an extremely lightly raced 5 year old.
Taqdeer is the 5 year old & he’s seen the racecourse just 3 times & not for almost 2 years. Breeding suggests he will like the soft ground & he’s got bags of potential but a 21 runner handicap after so long out is not a race I want to be taking a risk in. 11/2 could look value if he hoses up but there’s no way I could be parting with my hard earned beforehand.
Ryan Moore rides for Keith Dalgleish on What’s The Story and he’s a winner of 2 of his last 3 starts. His first win was in a maiden & he then followed up here over 7 furlongs but it was an apprentice handicap & I’m always a little wary of that form. The fact he could only finish 3rd when favourite on his reappearance, albeit his all-weather debut, is offputting as is his lack of a run over this trip. I like the chances of Kynren & he was the last to go from the shortlist but he’s up 2 graces in class & has an 8lb higher mark. There’ll be other days for him, probably in a smaller field.
Betting
The one I’m left with is Original Choice who looks to hold a cracking chance here. He’s drawn well enough in 16 and looks to be close to the pace too so all is well on the draw front. His form is excellent; he was 2nd to Century Dream in a Class 2 at Haydock last back end, when failing in a prolonged battle to the line. The winner has since followed up off 3lb higher whilst the selection is 2lb higher today. He’s also much better off at the weights with Lincoln favourite Fire Brigade, who beat my selection by a head at Haydock.
I’m still not convinced the selection lost, even after watching the replays. That form in itself is probably the best of last season on offer here. He gets the trip well & loves the likely ground. Hailing from a top yard, I get the distinct impression he’ll be progressing outside of handicaps before the end of the season so 6/1 is a price I’m happy to go in at, even in a big field.
Tips
Back Original Choice (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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