While we wait for the flat season to begin in the UK later in the year, we are tasked with doing a bit of globetrotting in the hunt for bets on the flat and after landing a place and a profit in Dubai on Thursday we head to the sand in Ireland on Friday.
There is a card on the all-weather on Friday and although there are some races where a bet doesn’t stand out, there is one midway through the meeting where we like two in the same race, the full details of which are below.
6.00 Dundalk
Preview
An ultra competitive handicap over a mile sees 13 runners go to post with 6 last out winners. 7 year old Tyrconnell won really well here 2 weeks ago & goes for a yard in form but an 8lb higher mark is a concern whilst favourite Major Power has not been out of the first 2 in his last 5 starts but this extra furlong isn’t certain to suit. The race that Bobby K won is probably the one to focus on, a race where there wasn’t much pace & it favoured those racing prominently. He won well but a 5lb higher mark is enough to make me want to take him on & he’s up against 4 of those he beat again here. It’s from there that our 2 bets come.
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Betting
Settle For Bay was 11th of 14 in that race but was sent off the 2/1 favourite so is given another chance. It’s worth noting that this 7 year old won the Royal Hunt Cup off a mark of 99 in 2018 and before that last run, had won 5 from 5 in races over a mile here. The most recent of those runs was 3 starts ago off a 4lb lower mark where he won with something in hand. Next time up, he ran well staying on into 7th over an inadequate 7 furlongs whilst the disappointment last time out was unsurprising given he failed to settle off a steady pace, was held up & had every chance until fading inside the last. A much stronger pace is likely today and that could be the difference here so, at the prices, is worth an each way investment.
Merchant Of Venice was 4th that day and was upside our first selection at the furlong pole so it’s hard to take one and not the other. He was held up out the back that day so his performance can be upgraded and the replacement of a 7lb claimer with a top jockey today may be the difference. Since moving to Ireland in November, he’s raced here 4 times finishing 2nd, 2nd, 11th and 4th, with the poor result when racing far too freely. His two runs when 2nd were off a 5lb lower mark but on the 2nd of those, over this trip, he was edged out by a head with the pair coming over 3 lengths clear of the rest of the field. His draw in 11 works too as he made his challenge last time on the inside which could have cost him a length or 2. If challenging on the outside, he’s very likely to be on the premises.
Tips
PLACED AT 14/1 – Back Settle For Bay (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 10.00 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back Merchant Of Venice (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 15.00 Betfair Sportsbook (⅕ odds 1-4)
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