It is the opening day of the Investec Derby meeting at Epsom Downs on Friday with the big race being the Investec Oaks. We’ve already previewed that separately elsewhere but there are two other races on the card which have thrown up betting potential on the first day.
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2.35 Epsom
Preview
A Class 2 handicap with a disappointing turnout of just the 9 runners. The market leaders don’t look the most solid to me; Donncha is winless in his last 20 & whilst handicapped well, he’s not sure to win having been dropped just 1lb since finishing 2 lengths 3rd in a similar event. Masham Star is the other vying for market leadership & has won 1 of his last 27. He was 2nd off this mark last time out in a weaker event & whilst well handicapped on last season’s efforts, he shouldn’t be heading the market. Medburn Dream looks the most solid of the front runners but I’d rather chance one at a big price.
Betting
Mr Scaramanga is the one I’m chancing. I can’t imagine there’s many who’ll be following this one in, with doubts over his liking for the ground & recent form but there’s plenty to recommend him if you look deep enough. He carries top weights so let’s be real, he is the highest rated horse in the field & there are reasons for that. He’s just a 4 year old & has some good form if you go back far enough. 4th to the excellent Churchill as a 2 year old & that was on easy ground, before winning a Group 2 in Qatar as a 3 year old, those runs are better than any rival has achieved in the last 2 years.
This year he’s been campaigned mainly on the all-weather, finishing 2nd by a nose to Goring who is now rated 104 before running ok in the Lincoln Trial when not getting the best of runs. He was then a close up 5th on All Weather Championships day. All of that form is decent enough but he was plumb last on firm ground in the Victoria Cup. However, the trip was likely on the short side, the big field not necessarily in his favour but, in honesty, he blew his chance being slowly away.
What really intrigues me is the booking of the champ in the saddle. He’s rode 4 times for this yard in the last 3 years, winning once at 14/1 & placing on the other 3 occasions at 14/1, 12/1 & 8/1. That cannot be ignored especially as the win was the only time the duo have teamed up here, the trainer’s local track. Add to that, the yard is having a good year & is 12 from 58 in handicaps in 2018. With a 4lb drop in mark & the ground concerns inconclusive, he’s worth a decent each way punt.
Tips
Back Mr Scaramanga (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 19.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
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3.45 Epsom
Preview
This is a race I almost avoided as Ajman King looks a Group horse in a handicap & I’m sure he’ll land the 4-timer here. However, I notice there’s a market without the favourite & there’s some value to be had.
Bandity, Brorocco & Not So Sleepy are all closely matched & it’s hard to know which one will prevail so, at 5/1 without the favourite, I’ll leave all 3 for another time. Instead, the one I like is available at a bigger price without the favourite than he’s being offered with the favourite with some other bookies. That interests me.
Betting
The horse in question is Native Fighter who is 14/1 without the favourite, but as short as 12/1 in the outright market elsewhere. He has bottom weight, with just 8 stone on his back, & we’ve had 2 low weight outsiders win this in the last 3 years at 25/1 & 16/1.
A 4 year old that is still improving, has won 2 on the all-weather this year. He then ran ok in 6th at this track over 1 mile 4 furlongs but I think the shorter trip will suit today. He took a keen hold that day & the shorter distance should ensure a faster pace & he’ll be able to deliver a sustained challenge all the way to the line. Last time, he looked all over the winner at Newmarket going into the dip but became unbalanced before running on to 2nd.
I think the trip is ideal & the softer ground will be massively in his favour. He’s a strong traveller who, despite being unlikely to trouble the favourite, could be his nearest challenger at a big price.
Tips
Back Native Fighter (e/w) in the ‘without Ajman King market’ for a 0.75/10 stake at 15.00 Bet365 (⅕ odds 1-3)
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