The final day of the Chester meeting and we have 2 bets from 2 competitive handicaps to round off the week at the Roudee. In addition, there’s a decent looking card at Ascot ahead of the Victoria Cup on Saturday and we’re taking 1 bet from there too.
2.10 Chester
Almost a mile round for this Class 2 handicap, headed in the betting by the Koukash owned Gabrial’s Kaka. I fancy this to be quite a weak race for the grade and it probably won’t take that much winning.
Gabrial’s Kaka is well fancied having won 2 starts back and then having no run last time out. He is however a fully exposed 6 year old and, despite his good draw, doesn’t look the most solid of favourites. Sound Advice has been well backed, probably off the back of 2 handicap wins here last season off lower marks, but hasn’t shown much this season. I’m sure he’s been laid out for this but he’s now 7 and I’d worry whether he has any improvement left in him. It wouldn’t surprise me if either of these did win but I’d prefer the lightly raced Archie as he looks open to any amount of improvement.
Archie is only a 4 year old with just 5 runs to his name and he looked like one to keep on side when running a good race in 4th at Kempton on his reappearance on his first run for his current yard. He won his debut as a 2 year old, comfortably accounting for Medrano who is now rated 107. That was his only outing at 2 whilst last year, he ran 3 times with very little promise. He didn’t break well at Newbury and raced keenly on the first of those 3, whilst he then probably didn’t fully appreciate the soft ground on his next 2 starts. That saw his handicap mark come down 5lb and meant he opened up this term off a mark of 88. He ran a race full of promise when appearing to be a little outpaced before staying on stoutly and would surely have gone closer over a bit further which he gets today. It is likely he needed that run too and should surely strip fitter today off the same mark as his last run. He is the yard’s only runner at Chester today and it is hoped this ground and longer trip should help him build on a promising reappearance. He is taken to land this en route to a tilt at bigger prizes in the summer.
Back Archie (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 6.50 with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
4.20 Chester
A 7 furlong handicap, Class 4, with a big field of 14 lining up. As is common place now, a low draw is needed around this turning track so it’s slightly surprising that 5 of the 6 heading the market are drawn in stalls 6 or wider, with 3 of them drawn 9 upwards.
Fingals Cave is one of the 3 drawn in the lower half, in stall 7, but has been raised 5lb in the handicap and he continues to tackle better company. That said, he’s still improving but doesn’t look to be ahead of the handicapper. The Hooded Claw is drawn one closer to the rail in stall 6 but my concern here is the trip. He’s proven over 6 furlongs and I couldn’t be taking an exposed horse that has only once been tried over a trip this far, disappointing in the process.
The one, therefore, to carry my money is Deauville Prince. His trainer loves a winner here and it’s fair to say that much of that yard’s campaign is geared around this meeting so you cannot dismiss any horses that line up here. Newera was a winner for the yard on Thursday. It’s fair to say that his form this term couldn’t be worse, failing to beat a rival, but that has seen his handicap mark come tumbling down to just 84 having started the season off 89.
There are some very interesting statistics against this horse; he’s only ever raced in handicap company in this grade once (and at this track) where he won at 7/1. That was off 83, 1lb lower than today. Other than that run, he’s never raced off this low a mark. He only really performs for this jockey; 3 wins/4 places from 16 under Richard Kingscote versus 0 wins/1 place from 9 starts otherwise. Deauville Prince will also appreciate the better ground and seems to like Chester so his draw in 2 is yet another positive. Since that win last year, he’s been placed off marks of 87,88 and 90. The visor is also back on which, looking at past form, he needs so I’m sure the 2 runs this year were just about fitness and trying to get a mark for this race. All looks set for a massive run.
Back Deauville Prince (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 8.00 with Coral (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
7.05 Ascot
6 furlongs is the trip for this Class 3 handicap over the straight course at Ascot. The market is dominated by Ice Step from the Clive Cox yard but the 11/4 on offer looks extremely skinny. He ran a great race when 2nd to Englishman at Windsor on softish ground but I’ve not really been impressed with his other 2 handicap runs. He’s back up 1lb in mark and the drying out of the ground isn’t necessarily in his favour. There are surely better value bets around.
Yeeoow is a consistent type and should run his race again but there are no secrets from the handicapper and place money is the best he can hope for whilst Shore Step could go well but is beginning to look exposed and is paying for his consistency. Like Yeeoow, he represents the placepot punter more than the win punter.
My selection in this is Cartmell Cleave, a horse I believe will be contesting the big sprint handicaps this summer. He’s now a 4 year old and has raced just 10 times, winning 3 of those. He opened up last season winning a Class 4 handicap off 72 but could not have been more impressive, cruising home by almost 3 lengths. He continued to run well off higher marks but the move to waiting tactics appear to have been the making of this horse. He came home really well at Epsom, a track suited by racing prominently, but then ran a cracker in this grade at Newmarket off 8lb lower when winning cosily by 2 lengths. The jockey said that day that he would make up into a very good horse this year, something the trainer was keen to back up too.
His mark then shot up to 90, the same mark he races off here, for a Class 2 handicap over this course and distance. He finished 6th of 17 that day but that doesn’t tell half the story. He travelled very sweetly into the race and had loads of horse under him 2 furlongs out. He was then squeezed out losing ground to the leaders and wasn’t positioned badly before getting daylight. He then ran on really well and looked set to challenge inside the last before having to be snatched up after getting no sort of run. In my opinion, he can be rated much better than his finishing position and it confirmed to me he can win off his mark. If the trainer and jockey confidence are correct, he really ought to be there at the business end of this race. Stable is in form too whilst his draw in 10 means he should get the necessary cover to show his best form.
Back Cartmell Cleave (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.00 with Boylesports (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
