The flat season continues to wind down towards a conclusion in the UK and Ireland this week but after another winner across the Irish Sea from the two races we got stuck into on Saturday, we’re still not prepared to let what is left of the campaign go untouched.
There is a decent looking card over in Ireland at Galway on Monday and there are a couple of handicaps on it which offer up a strong betting fancy. We’ve gone through both and come up with two picks in each.
1.55 Galway
Preview
Heavy ground expected in Ireland & a trip of just over a mile for these 15 handicapper’s in what’s a good looking race. Ken Condon’s Teed Up has raced 5 times in his career to date & has never finished out of the first 2. He’s raced twice here, winning once, so the course holds no fears but given his price & the fact he’s up 1lb for a handicap defeat last time, I’d prefer to look elsewhere. The filly Theophile is bidding for a hat trick but a 7lb hike might be even to stop her whilst In From The Cold continues to run with credit but might find one or two too good.
Betting
Soaring Monarch is the first of our two bets. He’s drawn wide in 15 which may not appear ideal but it’s worth noting he was drawn just as wide 3 starts ago when 2nd at this track over a furlong shorter. Off a revised mark at the same track at the Festival, he then finished 2nd again, this time over this trip and off 1lb lower than today’s mark. Both of those runs were on soft ground so the ground should hold no fears. Last time out, he finished 4th of 15 at Tipperary when twice suffering interference in the straight. It’s interesting that one of the best claimers around gets the leg up & takes 5lbs off the horse’s back. That could be the difference & provided he gets a good early position, he’s sure to be in the shake up.
Many think that Out On Friday is now in the handicapper’s grip but I’m not so sure. He’s gone up 20lbs in the last few months but his form backs that up. A head 2nd at Leopardstown was followed by a win here at the Festival. Off a 9lbs higher mark, he then went in again here on heavy ground, winning with any amount in hand so I can’t say another 11lb hike is beyond him. In fact, last time out, he did finish 3rd off this mark at Fairyhouse & was in with every chance before the trip of 10 furlongs found him out. The booking of Colin Keane is a massive plus, given he’s been on board 3 times & only 1 rival has got the better of him (and only by a head). With Keane on top, the ground heavy & at a track he loves, the price looks far too big.
Tips
VOID – Back Soaring Monarch (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back Out On Friday (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Betfair BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
Back them here:
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3.40 Galway
Preview
16 runners and 7 furlongs for the 2nd Irish handicap we have an interest in & again we’ll be siding with 2 horses. Sagittarius Rising and Drombeg Duke lead the market & both won last time out but a rise in mark of 5lbs & 7lbs respectively temper enthusiasm somewhat. The latter did win by over 2 lengths so could defy the rise & account for the only he beat, Kudbegood, again. Excuzio Joe is up 2lbs despite finishing 2nd last time out but the drop in trip and the widest draw is of more concern.
Betting
Lottieloveheart is the first of our 2 bets. Now a 4 year old, I’m drawn to a run she had as a 2 year old when 3rd to now 113-rated Delphinia & 99-rated King For A Jewel. She was beat just over 5 lengths but her mark here is just 58. That run was on soft & she’d not returned to a surface as soft until her last 2 runs on heavy. On the first of those, she was a head 2nd over this course & distance off 4lbs, the pair coming clear of the 13 strong field. She then went off favourite at Limerick over the same trip (off today’s mark) & was bang there at the 2 furlong pole & looked a massive danger. She was then quite badly bumped & took a while to get back into her stride. That run can be ignored &, on the evidence of her run here 2 starts ago, he’s one of the more likely winners.
I also can’t resist a bit on Porterinthejungle. Winless in 12, she’s not the most obvious on paper but conditions look right up her street today. As a 2 year old, her only good run was when 3rd of 16 at Gowran Park, the only time she encountered this sort of ground. Since then, she’s shown very little until returned to these underfoot conditions last time out when 5th over this trip at the Curragh. That was in a first time hood which is retained here & her performance was eyecatching given she failed to settle & only gave way inside the last at a much stiffer track. Not only is she dropped 3lbs for that run, she now has a 3lbs claimer on top, effectively making her 6lbs lower. The other thing to note is that she always needs her first run after a break. In fact, since her 2 year old days, she’s finished a total of 40 lengths back in 3 starts after an absence, whilst finishing 3rd of 16 & 5th of 13 on her other 2 starts, beaten just over 2 lengths each time. A good mark, ground that suits, the hood retained & an inside draw all point to a big run.
Tips
Back Lottieloveheart (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back Porterinthejungle (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Skybet BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
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