Day 1 of Glorious Goodwood sees a pair of Group 2s with the 2 year old Vintage Stakes and the Lennox Stakes for 3 year olds and upwards. On a competitive card, there are also 4 handicaps and a maiden, some of which are previewed below.
2.00: Class 2 Handicap
The opener is a 10 furlong handicap for the older brigade and we have a big field of 18 to go at. Mark Johnston has won this race 4 times in the past decade and is well represented with 4 runners in this race. I think you’ve got to be looking at horses that race prominently and go well at this type of track. The draw is also pretty important too as a wide draw on a sharp track will see horses having to give away lots of ground.
There are 2 obvious pace setters in this, Noble Gift and Stars Over The Sea. Both have a decent draw in stalls 2 and 6 respectively so shouldn’t have too much trouble grabbing the rail. That’s in contrast to others drawn wider, like Revolutionist from the Johnston yard.
I worry about Mutamakkin’s stamina and I’m actually a little worried by his draw in stall 1 as I think he could find himself having to come around a wall of horses if he doesn’t break quickly. Shakopee is the best of the fancied ones, from a stable that won this race last year. He’s a horse with bundles of potential but I wouldn’t be taking a skinny price as he’s unproven on this type of track.
The one I’m prepared to chance at a massive price is Richard Fahey’s Imshivalla. She’s a mare with plenty of ability and a decent strike rate albeit her trainer thinks softer ground might be preferable. Don’t rule her out on the account of going grounds as Goodwood is often over watered and can race slower than official going reports. She’s a winner of 8 of her 39 starts, including 1 win here and 2 more at another track with similar camber, Epsom.
She has made all or tracked the leader for each of her 8 victories and therefore her draw in 5 is ideal. Whilst never having won of a mark this high, she ran a cracker at York last time out over a trip too short. She’s already won in this grade this term at Epsom and despite being off 5lb lower, I cannot understand the price on offer here. Provided my thoughts on the ground are correct, she will run a big race and is worth a few bob each way in the opener.
Back Imshivalla (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 34.00 with Skybet (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
2.35: Group 2 Vintage Stakes
A 7 furlong Group 2 for 2 year olds with an Aiden O’Brien hot pot in War Decree. I’m very keen to oppose him here as not only did he get beat fairly by Boynton last time out, I also worry about the trainer’s record in 2 year old events at the meeting. Boynton, whilst 3lbs worse off at the weights, won here on his debut and course form counts for plenty. I’d prefer to side with Godolphin over Ballydoyle here but, instead, I’ve had a look at the longer prices.
The one I like is Isomer, from the Andrew Balding yard. The stable is in excellent form with 3 of his last 6 runners coming home in front and the 3 losers all started at prices of 16/1 or more. Jamie Spencer gets the ride and whilst he has his critics, he rode this horse very well when 2nd at 25/1 to Churchill in the Chesham. He got the better of Cunco who beat him on his debut and, after those 2 runner up runs, he won last time out at Salisbury when long odds on but where his saddle slipped. I’m not totally convinced by either of the front pair and this one is the most likely to take advantage especially with decent form in the book.
Richard Hannon saddles 3 of the 10 runners and Larchmont Lad is well fancied but that’s off the back of 1 run that may have flattered the winner. None of the others appeal so Isomer will carry my money.
Back Isomer (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
3.10: Group 2 Lennox Stakes
A 7 furlong race that features a most progressive type in Home Of The Brave, who won narrowly at Haydock last time out. The danger is last year’s 2nd, Dutch Connection, who lost out to the top class Toormore.
I really don’t think there’s anything as good as these 2 in this race so I’ll leave this race alone and let the market leaders battle it out.
3.45: Class 2 Handicap
14 runners for this race over 1 mile 6 furlongs and plenty in with chances. King Bolete aims for a hat trick but has been put up 10lbs for his last win whilst Qewy ran a blinder at Royal Ascot but this trip may be on the short side.
The one I like is a horse from the yard of Goodwood specialist, Mark Johnston. Notarised is the horse and he comes here with a solid track record. He has raced here 4 times in the last 12 months with a record as follows: 1st off 92, 6th off 103, 3rd off 101 and 3rd again off 101. He gets in here off 98 so looks well handicapped and will be difficult to keep out of the frame. Those 4 runs here have come in his last 15 starts and, interestingly, they account for his best 3 RPRs and 4 of his top 7 RPRs in that time; the course suitability cannot be underestimated. He has a good draw in 5 and having done nothing of note this season, his mark goes below 100 for the first time since trotting up in the Old Newton Cup 12 months ago. There’s plenty of pace in the field but Joe Fanning is great on prominent types and won’t allow himself to get into a battle for the lead. He looks to be the best each way option is a competitive race.
PLACED – Back Notarised (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 with Coral (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
The last 3 races see a 19 runner 5 furlong sprint, a 2 year old maiden where half the field are unraced and another competitive handicap where I’m finding it difficult to fathom out whether the 3 year olds will get the better of the older brigade. I’m, therefore, sitting back and letting the last 3 races pass.
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