Easter Friday at Lingfield is to all weather fans what Cheltenham is to jump racing. It is the All Weather Championships day featuring all the best horses from winter racing on the sand. We preview all 7 horse races and have bets in 4 of them.
Kevshatsportsbets can also bring you a series of MONEY BACK and FREE BETS for the days horse racing via the following links:
1.40pm: Fillies & Mares
We open up with a 7 furlong event, where the girls take centre stage. Whilst there’s a field of 10, more than half this field are average handicappers and it’s a race where it will pay to stick with the 4 at the head of the market. Cold As Ice is the standout option in this field, having raced 3 times since coming to these shores representing the Haggas yard. She beat a decent yardstick in Realize at Chelmsford 2 starts ago before finishing fast to snatch 3rd in a Listed race over a furlong shorter. In fairness, she could be put down as an unlucky loser and with a clearer run, a better ride and an extra furlong today, Cold As Ice would be a solid favourite. However, we cannot be taking odds on about a horse that needs luck in running and feels it is best to focus on the each way alternatives.
Volunteer Point is rated 102, the second highest in the field. That is 5lb below Cold As Ice but 5lb above her nearest rival; that is reflected in the betting and she is our pick to upset the odds in the opener. She has won 3 of her 4 starts, all of them coming with today’s pilot Graham Gibbons on board. He is 3 from 3 on our selection.
All 3 of Volunteer Point’s wins this winter have been narrow ones and there weren’t many people talking up her chances after she scrambled home here last time out in a conditions event in which she was heavily favoured at the weights. She didn’t win like a 1/3f should but it was run at a snail’s pace which didn’t suit. In addition, connections came out and said she was probably in need of the run and it was merely a prep run for this, her main target. She has a good draw in 3, unlike the favourite who is drawn widest of all. With question marks surrounding the favourite and a lack of other serious contenders, she looks a strong each way bet to nothing.
The other 2 to hold each way claims are Aljafer and Saucy Minx. We are put off by the former because of a 3 month absence and the need for first time blinkers, whilst Saucy Minx is probably a good handicapper at best and, at 6 years old, doesn’t have the progressive profile of her main market rivals.
WON – Back Volunteer Point (e/w) for a 2/10 stake at 6.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
2.10pm: Sprint
The bookmakers have this between 2 in Lancelot Du Lac and Goken but we think there’s more in with chances in this 6 furlong event featuring 12 runners. There appears to be plenty of pace in the field with Bosham, Lancelot Du Lac, Chookie Royale, Lightscameraction and Gamgoom all happy to make the running. However, the first named 4 have been drawn in 4 of the 5 widest stalls with only Gamgoom getting a decent draw.
On that basis and in search of the winner, we should turn our focus to those that don’t need to ping out of the gate and the 4 that stand out are Goken, Alben Star, Realize and Rivellino. Goken is the clear form choice having won 2 Group races in France and comfortably winning his only start on the sand in a Listed event over this course and distance back in November. A repeat of that will see him in the winner’s enclosure but our concerns are 3-fold here; he has led before and does race prominently so having the inside berth might see him try to lead pillar to post, that would be a worry in this field with the strong pace but if he’s held up, Goken would be reliant on getting the breaks from such a draw. A track absence of 132 days is another concern although he has gone well fresh before.
Alben Star, from stall 3, appeals most and looks a decent price at 9/1. He has finished 1st and 2nd in the 2 runnings of this so far and, whilst he’s not had the best time of it this winter, he will have been laid out for this and conditions appear more in his favour today. He’s raced 3 times this winter, needing the run on his first start at Kempton where the pace was too slow for him. His last 2 runs, both in Listed events here, have seen him finish down the field both times. He drew the short straw both times with the draw and, last time in particular, he saw too much daylight over a furlong shorter but did catch the eye staying on well inside the last. He will be spot on for this, should have the race run to suit and this might just be the time to catch him.
Realize has been running very well and was unlucky not to finish closer last time out but, despite the fast pace, we’re convinced he needs an extra furlong whilst Rivellino has again been hit with an awful draw and is therefore passed over.
WON – Back Alben Star (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 10.00 William Hill (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
3.15pm: Mile
Another field of 12 for the Mile and one where the top 5 in the betting should fill the places. The 1-2 from the Lady Wulfruna reoppose here, with last year’s 2nd Sovereign Debt attempting to turn the tables with the progressive Mister Universe on 5lb better terms. He has the inside berth and cannot be easily opposed but 3/1 is plenty short enough. Mister Universe trades bigger at 7/1. The 5lb weight shift doesn’t worry us as much as his wide draw, especially as he likes to lead or race very prominently.
Mindurownbusiness is the current favourite from the Roger Varian yard. He’s 3 from 4 this winter and is clearly on the upgrade but we’re not sure he’s beat that much and this race is tougher. It would be no surprise to see him continue his rise but we cannot be taking a miserly 2/1. Captain Cat won here in 2014 and doesn’t seem to have the required form this year to land the spoils.
Preference is for the Willie Muir trained Big Baz. He won his only all-weather start this winter, a Listed event at Kempton over this trip back in November when he had Sovereign Debt back in 4th and claimed the scalp of high class horses Very Special, Lord Gordon Byron and Richard Pankhurst. Since then, he’s been sent to race in Dubai and has shown mixed form. He finished 2nd on his first start in Meydan when leading half a furlong from home but not quite lasting over the longer trip of 9 furlongs, before a no show over that same distance. He ran much better last time out when 6th in a Group 2 and would have finished much closer had he not been shuffled back early. He finished with zest off the slow pace there and that’s a positive at a track like Lingfield, where he’s won twice before. His trainer is bullish about his chances and so are we, especially at nice each way prices.
Back Big Baz (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
3.45pm: Middle Distance (Easter Classic)
The big race of the afternoon and Grendisar is a warm favourite to land the spoils. Rightly so, too. He’s won his last 2 races including the Winter Derby here and has finished in front of many of his todays rivals already this season. The only question mark is how the race will be run as he’s better finishing with a flourish off a fast pace. That is by no means guaranteed unless Watersmeet (stall 9) decides to take on Maverick Wave (stall 5) for the early lead. Whilst Grendisar is a warm order, he’s by no means a certainty and a big priced each way shot is the preferred betting angle.
The horse in question is the French trained Metropol, priced at 20/1. We keep reading things like “he had the run of the race on his 2 starts in this country” and “he’s flattered by those runs” but is that really the case? Even if it is, there’s every chance his prominent racing style will be suited again and the fact his trainer sends just one horse over to these shores suggest he’s not just here for a day out. Let’s not forget the trainer sent one over 12 months ago in Fresles who won the Fillies and Mares race.
Metropol has run twice over this course and distance and finished 3rd of 14 and 5th of 12, both in Listed events. Off level weights, he finished a nose and a length behind Grendisar. Whilst he’ll struggle to turn the tables, that doesn’t make him a 20/1 shot. He also finished ahead of Battalion (twice), Maverick Wave, Fire Fighting and Man Of Harlech in those runs, with the first 3 all much shorter in the betting today. We are happy to take a chance of him confirming that form here and he looks a great each way bet.
PLACED – Back Metropol (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 Coral (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
The rest of the card…
2.40pm: Marathon
Moonrise Landing is the one to beat but her absence is a worry and that gives Angophile a chance of turning the tables on their December running. Talking of reversing the form, the chances of Ballynanty shouldn’t be underestimated and he only has half a length to find with Angophile. He looks the one open to the most improvement and would be the tentative each way selection at around 6/1.
4.15pm: 3yo Sprint
An absolute minefield with progressive sprinters, who have all been beating each other, in opposition. We don’t see any value other than to observe and mark some down as ones to follow for the coming season. Gracious John and Wolowitz deserve their place at the head of the market, but Field Of Vision could go well at a price.
4.45pm: 3yo Mile
This is between 3; Haalick, Race Day and Cape Speed. We can’t split them and, if you haven’t had a winner by this point, we’d advise you to keep your powder dry and wait for the Dubai World Cup meeting on Saturday.
