After a busy classic weekend, we’re back to much quieter, lower grade racing for a couple of days until the Chester May meetings come around. We head to East Yorkshire and Beverley for our one and only bet today.
4.05 Beverley
A 12 runner, Class 4 handicap over just over 1 mile and the market is dominated by 4 horses. Abushamah is in decent nick finishing 2nd last time out at Redcar off this mark. However, I feel that this stiffer track and slightly longer trip will be an issue and could not be recommending him at just 3/1. Rousayan is making his seasonal reappearance and took this event 12 months ago but he’d had a prep run. I don’t expect him to be following up today.
The other 2 that dominate the betting are Moonlightthenavigator and Muntadab, and both hold sound claims here. The former finished 4th to the latter horse at Doncaster a month ago and reopposes the victor on 5lb better terms for just over 3 lengths. He should get the longer trip and in now looking well handicapped but it’s a concern he hasn’t followed up an excellent Class 2 Musselburgh win from last spring. Muntadab has since run well on the all-weather but the slight concern is that his mark has gone up again despite finishing 3rd and, whilst he’s likely to go close, I’d prefer longer odds than the 5/1 available.
Instead, I’ll take a chance on the bottom weight, Dawn Mirage at 16/1. He races here off a lowly mark of 75 and, if you take the best of his 2 year old form in Ireland, he looks sure to go close. Finished 3rd, 4th and 2nd in his 3 races as a 2 year old and the horses to beat him are now rated 93,98,100,106,95 and 97. Whilst his 3 year old career wasn’t as impressive, he still ran some good races. 3rd of 15 over a mile on his reappearance when needing the run before a 6th of 11 over 10 furlongs which, in my opinion, is better than it appeared on paper. He was bumped leaving the stalls and then was hampered twice at a crucial stage when staying on well and looking more likely to prevail than the eventual winner who, coincidentally, has since finished 2nd in a Group 2 at Royal Ascot.
Dawn Mirage then went on to win his maiden impressively before being dropped to an inadequate 7 furlongs for a run in a handicap where he finished 6th of 7 but only just over 3 lengths back. That was off a mark of 80. He’s had one run since coming over to these shores where he finished midfield at Redcar off 1lb higher on heavy ground and was only 1 place behind the 3/1 favourite here. Headgear returns for this run (he seems to like it) and better ground will suit being out of Oasis Dream. A stiff track will suit too and he’s sure to improve markedly for his first run of the season. In a race of limited quality, I think Dawn Mirage is underrated and 16/1 looks to be a massive price for a horse I feel could, in time, prove to be significantly better than his current rating.
Tips
PLACED – Back Dawn Mirage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
