It used to be that there was no horse racing on Good Friday but times have changed and instead we get the climax to the all-weather season now that the flat campaign is underway. Newcastle and Lingfield head up the pick of the action.
There are plenty of good races to get stuck into, the majority of which are live on ITV in the UK and having sifted through both of the cards we have come away with five bets across the two tracks to keep us interested.
2.40 Lingfield: All-Weather Vase Mile Handicap
A maximum field of 12 over the mile & Cephalus, who has won his last 3, is favourite. However, he continues to rise in the weights but, of more concern, would be the steep rise in grade he encounters today. Irish raider Benavente won well at Southwell a month ago & looks a massive danger on that run; it’s just a question of whether his 7lb penalty will blunt his chances. It’s a largely out of form Darwell Lion that is our fancy here. Since moving to this yard in December, he’s had form figures of 8-8-4-9-8-5 but that’s seen his mark drop by 7lbs and last time out, off 1lb higher, he was a close up 5th of 13 in a blanket finish. His other decent run was when a good 4th of 12 over course & distance at 40/1, off 6lbs higher & where he made his challenge on the wrong part of the track. His 3 handicap wins have come off 83-85-85, yet he gets in here off a mark of 80 & this is the trainer’s only runner of the day, sending him down from North Yorkshire. With form figures at the track of 1-1-4-4, the most recent 2 at massive odds, it’s a venue that suits & everything looks in his favour to outrun his odds today.
Tips
Back Darwell Lion (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
3.35 Newcastle: All-Weather Sprint Handicap
Another maximum field on the straight track where the Gosden’s saddle Cover Up who has a 100% 3 from 3 record on the all weather. He will cope with the rise in grade but there has to be a concern over the trip at arguably the stiffest all weather track in the country. Another in good winning form in Albasheer, bidding for a course hat trick here, with the only real concern being a mark of 110. There is a big range of handicap marks here & it’s often wise to stick with those classier types. Add to that, a middle to high draw is usually of benefit & it leads us to Juan Les Pins. He’s drawn right on the rail so hopefully he gets the luck in running but if he does, he comes here with a massive chance. He ran well in some top races last term, with a 3rd in the Wokingham before finishing in the frame in a trio of runs in pattern company. On his first run this year, he totally missed the break in the 5 furlong Listed Hever Sprint at Southwell but finished with a late rattle to finish 2nd, splitting 108-rated winner Diligent Harry & 112-rated Clarendon House. The extra furlong here will suit. His last run can be ignored due to an admin error & him running over a ridiculous distance of a mile & a half. Back with conditions in his favour, he stands out as a cracking each way bet.
Tips
Back Juan Les Pins (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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4.10 Newcastle: All-Weather Easter Classic Middle Distance Handicap
The big race of the day & what a cracker we have in store. Lightly raced Irish challenger Elegant Man is favourite; he really could be special but this is tough for such an inexperienced horse & cannot be recommended as a bet at around 4/1. Penzance has won 4 on the spin, seeing his mark rise rapidly & cannot be ignored but again, another increase in mark & probably the toughest opponents he’s faced will make it difficult. Oh So Grand has a similar profile to Penzance & won the Winter Oaks last time out so is sure to be in the mix, although she is now taking on the boys. The French have a decent record on All Weather Finals Day & in a bid to add to that, we’re siding with Hooking. Without doubt, the best all weather horse in France with a record of 6 wins from 12 starts on the sand. He won 4 on the spin 12 months ago, including 2 Listed races, & this season has continued in similar vein, winning the same 2 Listed races at Cagnes Sur Mer following a narrow reversal on reappearance. He has a great mix of speed & stamina, and just seems to keep pulling out more every time he runs. Form in big fields is also there, with 4 of his 6 all weather wins coming in double figure fields. The slight doubt has to be the fact that it’s his first start outside of France but if the travel proves no trouble, he should run a huge race.
Tips
Back Hooking (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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4.25 Lingfield: All-Weather Vase Fillies Handicap
7 furlongs is the trip for this fillies handicap & a field of 13 makes the draw pretty important here. One of the fancied runners is Roger Varian’s Blue Virtue but she couldn’t have been handed a worse stall so, of the market leaders, it’s probably best to focus on Twirler or Raknah. The former has won her last 2, making all, but it may be difficult to dominate in this field whilst the latter has only won a maiden in Ireland but the powerful connections make her impossible to dismiss. Back in grade, the chances of Incrimination have been largely overlooked. She likes the track with a record of 3-1-3-2-6-3 & has never been beaten more than 2 lengths here. Her worst run this year was on reappearance after almost a year off & then she wasn’t in top form at Kempton over the mile trip that seemed to stretch her. Back here next time, in a Class 2 (this is a Class 4), she was 3rd responding to pressure very well indeed & only gave way late on. It was a similar story last time out at Wolverhampton but she wasn’t helped that day by racing a little keenly. What was interesting was that the 2 jockeys that have ridden her this year didn’t seem at ease with the horse’s style of running so we are delighted to see her reunited with the last jockey to win aboard her. Given her form off this mark is 3-3-3, the fact a big field should be favourable & she has a nice draw in 6, we’re very hopeful for a big run.
Tips
Back Incrimination (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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4.40 Newcastle: All-Weather Championships Mile Handicap
Another full field to close the card at Newcastle & another where the favourite is bidding to rack up a sequence. Dear My Friend has won his last 3, has a 4 from 4 all weather record & is sure to keep on improving but he has a mark of 113 now & will have to shoulder 10st1lb if he’s to land this prize. Roger Varian’s Fantastic Fox should run a big race under Oisin Murphy & knows how to win having been in the winner’s enclosure 3 times from his last 5 starts but an effective 8lbs rise if you take into account the jockey’s claim last time, will make this tough. His stablemate, Greatgadian. Is the dark horse in the race. At his best, he’s a winner off a mark of 98 on the all weather (races off 92 today) & he opened this season with a win off 87 over course & distance. Since then, he’s stayed in form and has finished 2nd 3 times here taking his record at the track to an eyecatching 1-2-2-2. Two starts, he was an eyecatcher after losing his place, dropping to the rear & then making late headway in between horses to grab second. That was over 7 furlongs but he looks better over a mile which is the trip he’s running over today & the trip he was 2nd over last time out when perhaps not totally suited by either his draw in 1 or the fact he raced too close to the pace. It’s interesting that the in-form & powerful yard has only 2 runners on finals day here, and they are both in this race. With jockey bookings arguably suggesting the selection is second string, we’re happy to be on at a bigger price than perhaps his form warrants.
Tips
Back Greatgadian (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Boylesports BOG (⅕ odds 1-4)
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