It’s the 2nd day of the Craven meeting at Newmarket and today’s card doesn’t appear to provide the best of betting propositions. In fact, there’s only one race that interests us, that being the Group 3 Earl Of Sefton Stakes. There’s also a card up at Beverley and we’re taking one there too.
4.30 Newmarket
9 furlongs on the undulations of Newmarket, with the ground currently good to soft. We have some decent types appearing here in Ralph Beckett’s Air Pilot, Charlie Hills’ Dutch Connection and John Gosden’s Mahsoob. They are the 3 current market leaders but we are opposing them all.
Air Pilot is the most solid of these having some good Group 1 form, including a 5th in the Champion Stakes when last seen. However, he looks a short enough price and may just need an extra furlong. There are similar distance concerns for the 2nd favourite, Dutch Connection, whose best form is over 7 furlongs and may struggle to finish off his race. Mahsoob had looked a rapidly improving handicapper last term but was found out when stepped up to Group company. He remains with potential but has something to prove.
The one that will carry our money is the classy Custom Cut. Let’s get the negatives out of the way first; he carries a 5lb penalty for 2 Group wins last season but he’s proven in giving weight away and the value in the price compensates for that. Also, he finished only 3rd of 4 on his seasonal reappearance in a Listed event at Doncaster but he travelled well for a long way before fitness found him out on soft ground.
What is of interest is that he is David O’Meara’s only runner at Newmarket and stable jockey Danny Tudhope travels down for just the 1 ride. That is a pointer in itself. We also feel he is better suited to this track and that is underlined by his win and 2nd in 2 starts here. His first win here was when completing a 5 timer at the end of 2014, in a Group 2 event. Last season was a mixed bag of results but excuses can be found for many of his defeats. He is clearly not a Group 1 performer so those runs can be ignored whilst fast ground is another negative. Custom Cut likes to dominate and that is a plus on undulating tracks, especially when the ground is riding so quick. Many of his defeats were on flat tracks where speed is of the essence.
He finished a length behind the high class Time Test here in a Group 2 last September when conceding 4lb to the winner. There isn’t a horse of Time Test’s ability in this field and he repeats that run, we think the opposition will struggle to get past, even in receipt of 5lb. The 9/1 currently on offer looks big.
Back Custom Cut (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Coral (⅕ odds 1-3 BOG)
3.10 Beverley
The first 5 furlong cavalry charge at Beverley, with 11 going to post for this Class 3 handicap. The 3 that are vying for favouritism are Rural Celebration, Long Awaited and Arctic Feeling. All 3 of them have solid chances but all are opposable for varying reasons.
Rural Celebration has a good chance and looks well handicapped for David O’Meara. We are slightly put off by the fact he’s yet to win off this mark or in this grade, whilst Arctic Feeling isn’t one on his first start of the season. We’ll save that one for another day. Long Awaited looks well handicapped, should be ready to go first time up and comes from a top yard but, and this is a big but, he is so weak in a finish. A great bet to place but not one for win purposes and, at just 5/1, can be ignored.
Singeur, trained by Rebecca Bastiman, is our selection. Graham Lee is an eyecatching jockey booking; he has taken the ride only once previously on this 9 year old finishing 2nd of 14 last summer over 6 furlongs which has proved to be a trip too far. In fact, he has 8 wins from 45 runs over the minimum trip but is 0 from 29 over 6 furlongs.
Course form is also a plus in that Singeur is 1 win and 3 places from 6 tries at the track. He is drawn well too in 5 so back at his favourite track over the minimum distance with top jockey on board to boot, he hold solid claims. He also races inside his class ceiling having never won beyond Class 3.
Today, our selection races off a mark of 84, dropped 1lb from his last run, and is 13lb below his highest ever winning mark having won off 97 in his pomp. He also has form first time up so the 6 month absence shouldn’t prove a problem, and he looks a solid each way bet at a good each way price.
Back Singeur (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Paddy Power (⅕ odds 1-3 BOG)
BET HERE:
