Wednesday sees the 2nd day of the Craven meeting at Newmarket and there’s a possibility we’ll get some Classic clues with the European Free Handicap and the Nell Gwyn, whilst the Group 3 Earl of Sefton is there for the older horses. We have to wait for the last race on the card for our bet.
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5.20 Newmarket
This sees a Class 3 handicap for 3 year olds over the Dante trip of 1 mile 2 furlongs and it features any number of potential group performers, some of which are already entered in the Guineas, the Dante and/or the Derby.
Bin Battuta and First Nation are 2 of the 3 heading the market after their battle in a Doncaster handicap earlier this month, whilst Sir Michael Stoute’s Eludication is the other vying for favouritism off the back of a 7 furlong win at Leicester at the back end of last season. There are plenty of others in the race with potential and this leads us to our bet.
Middle Kingdom – He’s the only one of the 11 runners to have seen the track just the once but it was such an impressive performance, it is impossible to leave him out of calculations. Back in November, he raced in an average maiden at Newcastle on the all weather and he wasn’t particularly well fancied that day.
He ran out a clear cut winner by almost 4 lengths, despite starting slowly. He travelled smoothly and was pushed clear to score readily. The way he finished suggested the extra 2 furlongs and the stiffer track will be right up his street.
That performance gave him a mark of 86 which is likely to prove very lenient if he is to realise his obvious potential. He holds a Dante entry and a win here would put him firmly in the picture for that.
The likely shape of the race only enhances his chances here. There is an awful lot of pace expected to be on, with over half the field having led from the gate in their short careers. As well as our selection, only Bin Battuta of the fancied runners has shown a liking for being held up so it would be no surprise to see this race set up for those sitting off the pace.
Provided he is fit and ready to go, likes the switch to turf and does get the trip (he should do), then the price looks very generous albeit in a race of unexposed types.
Tips
WON – Back Middle Kingdom (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
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