Thursday 12th July
1.50 Newmarket: Bahrain Trophy
Just the 8 runners for this rather weak looking Group 3 with First Eleven, Giuseppe Garibaldi & Loxley heading the market. The former is a decent type, progressing nicely, & is probably the one of the 3 I’d side with but he’s out of handicap company for the first time here so has it to prove.
Giuseppe Garibaldi is from the all conquering O’Brien yard & since winning a Listed event a month, he’s twice been in the first 3 in Group 2 company. On form, he’s probably the one to beat. Loxley, meanwhile, won a novice race comfortably on his only start but that doesn’t warrant such a short price.
With 4 of the other 5 runners all trading at 16/1 or greater (& rightfully so in my opinion), I’m siding for the 4th favourite here, Wells Farhh Go. He won both of his races as a 2 year old, including a Group 3 beating the classy James Garfield in the process. His reappearance came in the Dante where he was well fancied. He finished midfield that day but almost certainly needed the run behind top class Roaring Lion. He then went on to Royal Ascot & again finished midfield in another Group 2. However, the pace was non existent that day & he was held up at the back, pulling hard. He goes up in trip again today, with the extra yardage likely to suit. With question marks around the front 3 & not much else to trouble them, this one looks a good each way bet.
WON – Back Wells Farhh Go (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (⅕ odds 1-3)
3.00 Newmarket: Bet365 Handicap
20 runners going 7/1 the field over 6 furlongs, this ain’t an easy race to predict but I’ll have a go anyway. There are many reopposing after a similar sprint at York a few weeks back but I’m going with 2 that swerved that contest.
Tribal Quest is one of the joint favourites & rightly so. As a 2 year old, he ran behind Invincible Army, albeit 5 lengths back, & again finished 2nd on his next start in a Newmarket maiden. This year, he comfortably won a novice event at Kempton before following up in Class 2 event here on 2000 Guineas day beating Yafta & Galloway Hills. He raced off 87 that day & is up 7lb to 94 but he did record a RPR of 97 so I think this mark is well within range. For me, he’s the one most likely to go up into Group company & if he’s to do that, he needs to be winning or going very close here.
Buridan is our 2nd selection & he’s a winner of 2 of his last 3 starts. Those last 2 wins have been in Class 4 company, the first off 82 & the second off 85. He’s up 6lb today to 91 but he did win by 3 lengths last time. Equally, he’s due to go up another 4lbs for is potentially “well in” here & that’s why he’s running just 5 days since his last run. He’s only run 5 times in his career, winning 3, & interestingly that matches his record on this going description of good to firm. In a competitive race, he has an outstanding chance.
Back Tribal Quest (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)