A great day’s racing with several meetings around the country but we stay up north for a competitive Haydock card for our 4 bets. There’s an 8 race card, with 6 of those being handicaps and there appears to be plenty of value around.
2.10 Haydock
This Class 2 handicap over 7 furlongs features some horses that disappointed at the Lincoln meeting at the beginning of this month on soft ground and it may well be that the race revolves around whether they are seen in a better light on this more suitable ground, where no runner should have an excuse.
Lord Of The Land was the antepost favourite for the Lincoln but disappointed massively finishing a distant 19th of 22. Not only was he unsuited by the ground, his chances were somewhat compromised at the start as he was squeezed out twice in the first furlong. It is surely too early to dismiss him as the money that came for him at Doncaster must have come from somewhere. He is well bred and is a 5 time winner, winning exactly half of his 10 starts for Andre Fabre. In the Lincoln, Lord Of The Land travelled ok and was bang in contention coming past the 3 furlong pole and weakened in a manner that was clearly ground related. After trading around 5’s for the 22 runner cavalry charge that is the Lincoln, he’s available at around 8’s today for a much less competitive heat. That strikes me as value and I’m prepared to give him another chance over a furlong shorter on better ground.
The main competition appears to come from Predominance, Shared Equity, Right Touch and Lincoln. I actually believe that the first 3 would prefer ground on the easy side of good and, with firm likely to appear somewhere in the going description, they are 3 that are readily passed over.
The Channon horse, Lincoln, is the dark horse of the race. He looks very well handicapped today and the price appears to have gone now. However, he still has plenty to prove but if he resumes in the form he’s capable of, he will go close. Outback Traveller, at a bigger price, has his ground but still looks on a stiff mark whilst Georgian Bay is better on the all-weather.
Back Lord Of The Land (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 9.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
3.20 Haydock
16 runners for a Class 2 handicap over the round mile and this features more horses that ran at Doncaster, with Lincoln 4th Birdman amongst them. In such a big field, I’m looking for something that isn’t drawn too wide and that, unfortunately, rules out Express Yourself, Revolutionist and Mustaaqeem. In particular, the last named wasn’t easily dismissed.
Wilde Inspiration, Instant Attraction and You’re Fired are all capable sorts but would be seen in a better light should we get some rain whilst Birdman may have had his day in the Lincoln 3 weeks ago.
Classic Collection is Bin Suroor’s one runner here and James Doyle comes up for just this ride. He’s a son of Cape Cross who liked good or firmer going whilst his 5 runs to date have been on softish ground or on the all-weather. He is a very lightly raced 4 year old and signed off last season with a win over further than this. I feel that the return to a mile might be in his favour and he’ll get a better pace to sit off and should settle better. He does have a 10lb higher mark to overcome but he looks to be a pattern performer in the making. He has been gelded over the winter and has a fine chance. He’s drawn in 11 so, whilst not ideal, shouldn’t prove too much of a problem.
I’m also taking another bet here in the shape of the rapidly improving Erik The Red. Another 4 year old who finished last season winning his last 3 races but still appearing to have plenty left in the tank. He started last term finishing 2nd to Racing History here, a horse who ended the season rated 117. Erik The Red is rated 91. After winning his maiden by almost 4 lengths, he won a Class 4 handicap at Beverley quickening up well after looking like the gap would not come. He was certainly worth more than the official distance of ¾ length. Last time out at Chester, he again came with a great run in between horses and has plenty of speed as well as stamina, winning over 10 furlongs that day. Better ground should see him in a better light and a 6lb rise doesn’t look excessive. His trainer is going well and I expect this one to go close.
Back Classic Collection (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
PLACED – Back Erik The Red (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 11.00 Bet365 (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
5.40 Haydock
Our final bet comes from the last race on the card, a 10 furlong Class 4 handicap. With 15 runners, there are 4 that dominate the market with any price the rest. Let’s start by discussing the chances of the leading 4; Higher Power is the 2/1 favourite from the Fanshawe yard after just 3 runs in maidens. He has potential, for sure, but 2/1 on a maiden in a handicap isn’t for me. Squire finished 2nd on the all-weather last time out but has been raised 4lb for that and is 9lb above his last winning mark. Queens Novel is once raced and won a maiden on the all-weather. Again, he could be anything but is too inexperienced to carry my money whilst Muhaafiz is still climbing the handicap despite having lost in a maiden last time out.
With crazy prices on the rest, it is worth throwing a dart at one, and the one that interests me is We’ll Shake Hands, especially at the 28/1 that is available. Now a 5 year old, he’s a winner of 4 of his 16 turf starts, including a 2 from 5 record here. With the apprentices 3lb claim, he’s only 1lb above his last winning mark and he hails from a yard that is amongst the winners. He goes well on good or faster ground but the key to this horse appears to be his need for a fast pace. He will certainly get that here and should be able to pick off the field up the long Haydock straight. The only 2 things that worry me is the step up in grade and the fact that this is his seasonal reappearance. That said, the price we are getting makes it worth the risk especially at Haydock is seen as one of the tracks for course specialists.
Back We’ll Shake Hands (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 Stan James (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
