Even though the official start of the UK turf season is still a week away, we are being spoilt for top quality flat racing this Easter weekend. Following on from a top quality card for the All Weather Championships at Lingfield on Friday, we have another great day on Saturday with the Dubai World Cup meeting from Meydan and a nice looking Kempton card featuring the Listed Magnolia Stakes.
Meydan has 5 Group 1’s on its 8 race card and we’ll be previewing 3 of those with bets in each, whilst over at Kempton, we’ll preview one race, having a bet in the big handicap, the Rosebery.
2.10pm Meydan: Al Quoz Sprint
A 5 furlong Group 1 cavalry charge with last years 1-2 reopposing and both near the head of the market. Irish raider Sole Power landed the spoils that day, winning this race at the 5th attempt but he’s now a 9 year old and we feel he could be vulnerable in his attempt to follow up. The 2nd horse last year, Peniaphobia seems to hold a better chance with top jockey Joao Moreira doing the steering. There is a niggling doubt that his best form has been over 6 furlongs but, of greater concern, would be the number of other front runners in opposition. Both of these horses should go well again but we’re happy to take them on for win purposes.
Ertijaal is the favourite but is another front runner, and is drawn next door to Peniaphobia. We might just see them both off too hard and surely this race will be set up for a closer. Despite winning his last 4 races, he’s still to prove himself outside of top handicap company. Whilst this company might still be within his grasp, it’s no certainty so the 7/2 on offer is readily passed over.
Muthmir is a top class horse and should come on a bundle for his seasonal reappearance but oftens just falls short in this company whilst Goldream has more solid form but there has been mutterings from connections that he’s yet to settle in Dubai.
To win a Group 1, you need a good horse with a top jockey on board and that leads us to our selection, Not Listenin’Tome. He has the assistance of the brilliant Ryan Moore and that, combined with good form in Hong Kong, might just be enough. He has been drawn around the pace so will get a good tow into the race and should be able to mount a late challenge with the best in the business doing the steering. He has won 3 of his last 7 starts and, interestingly, they’ve all been over the minimum trip whilst the 4 defeats have been over further. He does have something to find on the book with Peniaphobia but the trip and the shape of the race is more to the liking of our pick so the 13/2 on offer is worth taking.
Back Not Listenin’Tome (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 7.50 Betfair Sportsbook (1/4 odds 1-3)
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2.50pm Kempton: Rosebery Handicap
The Rosebery is a Class 2 handicap over 1 mile 3 furlongs and it has attracted a mixed bunch of handicappers. Despite being for horses rated up to 105, there’s only 2 rated above 92, effectively making this a Class 3 race. For that reason, we’re heading towards the top of the handicap for our bet and siding with the Mark Johnston charge, Master Of Finance.
The trainer has won this twice before and whilst this horse’s recent form isn’t anything to write home about, this race is well within his grasp as he’s contesting what appears to be an easier race than many of the ones he contested last season. Master Of Finance is a confirmed front runner and there’s appears to be only 1 horse that could try and take him on for that. The horse in question is Giantstepahead who is drawn wider than our pick.
Master Of Finance has won his seasonal debut for the last 2 seasons and generally seems to hold his form better in the early months of the year. Admittedly, he’s never won off a mark this high but make no mistake, he’s been very competitive off this and higher marks. He was a close 3rd in a top handicap at the Epsom Derby meeting off 1lb higher and 2nd at Ascot off that same mark. He’s had excuses on 5 of his last 6 starts, including trip, ground, draw and headgear. Today, he has everything in his favour and provided he is as good fresh as he’s been before and he’s able to grab the lead, the odds look very generous in his bid to give his trainer a 3rd win in the race.
Barsanti is the favourite and, whilst he couldn’t have been more impressive last time out, that was a Class 5 handicap off 10lb lower. We are also firmly against Viewpoint who was flattered by his last run and that was his only piece of viable form. Where the price of 7/1 comes from remains a mystery.
The 2 that could give our selection most to do are Dutch Uncle and Pactolus. The first named has, like Master Of Finance, run some good races in better events than this and comes from a stable in form whilst Pactolus was a last time out winner whose career high mark might just stop him from following up.
Back Master Of Finance (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 Paddy Power (¼ odds 1-3 BOG)
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3.45pm Meydan: Dubai Turf
Another Group 1, this time over 9 furlongs with 2 very good horses at the head of the market in Tryster and Intilaaq. Tryster is a top quality improving horse, 2 from 2 since coming to Dubai but this represents his biggest test to date whilst Intilaaq is unexposed but looks more of a stayer than a horse with a turn of foot. Of the 2, Tryster would be the one but both are a shade skinny in the betting when you look at the quality of the opposition.
Real Steel is a Japanese raider getting the assistance of Ryan Moore but he’s been done no favours by the draw so, instead, we like the chances of one of Mike De Kock’s 2, Forries Waltz, at a double figure price. He’s raced just 6 times in a short career, winning 5 of those including 2 at this track. With a biggish field today, it’s comforting that Forries Waltz has won his last 4 races in fields of between 13 and 16 runners, each time being noted as making smooth progress before running on well. He has the inside berth which may be an issue if he doesn’t get a run but we’re hoping his jockey will be able to grab a decent early position as he doesn’t need to be held up to show his best.
There is no doubt he’ll need to improve to land this with Tryster being the one to beat but his trainer is shrewd and will have him spot on today. Odds of 12/1 look generous enough and we fully expect him to be at least in the first 3.
Back Forries Waltz (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 Bet365 (¼ odds 1-3 BOG)
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5.00pm Meydan: Dubai World Cup
The biggest purse in racing on offer in the Dubai World Cup and it’s 2 of the American challengers that appear to hold all the aces, in last year’s 2nd California Chrome and Frosted. Neither of them look bombproof so, at 12/1 bar the pair, we’ll be looking for something to beat them both.
California Chrome is clearly a class animal but again has been hit with a poor draw, out wide in 11. He has won both his prep runs but wasn’t really tested in either so we haven’t learnt much. Also, a recent headgear change has to be a worry and it could be a case of clutching at straws. Frosted, meanwhile, was very impressive in his prep run but no way will we be taking 5/2 on a horse that has 4 wins from 14 runs. It would be no surprise to see either win but we’d prefer something at an each way price to try and upset the odds.
That horse is another Mike De Kock horse, Mubtaahij. He’s a 4 year old, draw in stall 4, that was a winner on this card last year. That day, he demolished a good field in the UAE Derby by 8 lengths and that is rock solid course form. He then went over to the US where he didn’t really shine and similar comments apply to his 2 runs this year. However, we should be prepared to forgive as there appears to be excuses. On his first run this year, he was reappearing from an 8 month absence over a trip too short. He was also quoted as only being 80% fit. His next start was better but, on the face of it, disappointing in finishing 4th in a Group 1 won by Special Fighter. However, he was held up that day when the track was riding very fast and every winner on the card came from those racing prominently. With the track against him, that run can be upgraded significantly. Mike De Kock has already said that the plan was always to work towards this race and we should see Mubtaahij in a better light today.
Of the others, Keen As Ice needs a breakneck pace to show his best as he has a moderate turn of foot whilst Mshawish has stamina doubts and Special Fighter is unlikely to be gifted such a soft lead.
PLACED – Back Mubtaahij (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
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