The sun is out and there is plenty of top quality horse racing to enjoy on Saturday. We’ve gone through all of the meetings and come up with five bets which are all below.
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2.00 York
Preview
An excellent 7 furlong handicap to kick off proceedings at York with the well touted Gilgamesh heading the market. Incredibly progressive last term, he’s not been at his best in 2 starts this term although he did “win” his race on the near side of the track at Ascot last time. He might prefer quick ground.
Betting
I did struggle to put a line through Golden Apollo who was hampered when I backed him last time but 9/2 is too short to get involved with on a horse that needs luck in running so I’m siding with Eastern Impact to handle the step up to 7 furlongs.
He’s not won since 2015 but that was a Group race & since then he’s ran creditably without managing to get his nose in front. With the exception of 2 runs over 5 furlongs, all of his runs have come over 6 furlongs so this step up to 7 is into the unknown but well worth exploring on the basis he’s noted as “staying on at the same pace”.
His mark continues to drop & he’s now off his lowest mark (96) since 2014. In fact, he’s only raced off a mark below 100 on 3 occasions since then, being his last 3 starts all off 97. He was 4th of 20 here at the tail end of last season & would almost certainly have finished 2nd with a clear run before opening up this term at Newmarket where he was 3rd of 15 to Aeolus, noted as staying on. Back at Newmarket on his last start, he ran in a big handicap on Guineas day & was 2 lengths back in 7th in a hot looking handicap. Again, he stayed on at the same pace.
Extremes of going don’t suit this horse but otherwise, he goes on anything. With his form solid, his mark appealing & his stable going well, he’s a big price with the only possible negative being a slight stamina doubt.
Tips
Back Eastern Impact (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 Bet365 BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
2.25 Curragh
Preview
It’s 2000 Guineas day over in Ireland but it’s the 6 furlong handicap that interests me. Rattling Jewel is the favourite judged on a 2nd place run at Naas early this month & whilst his mark looks a good one, he’s no certainty to follow up based on past form.
Betting
The one I want on side in this 14 runner race is St Brelades Bay. He’s a pretty consistent sort who has won 4 of his 17 starts over this 6 furlong trip including his last 2. That said, he’s only run twice of this trip in his last 7 starts & I can only assume that is to protect his mark.
Since winning over course & distance last August off 5lbs lower, he’s finished down the field twice over 7 furlongs before winning back over this trip on the all weather. After the winter off, he appeared at Naas over 5 furlongs & was noted as staying on strongly which backed up the fact he needs this extra furlong.
Decent ground is perfect for him & he’s drawn in the middle, around the pace, so there should be no excuses. He looks sure to go well.
Tips
Back St Brelades Bay for a 2/10 stake at 4.00 Boylesports BOG
Back it here:
2.30 Goodwood
Preview
A high class 7 furlong handicap for 3 year olds &, as usual, this is all about the unexposed types that are likely to go on to bigger & better things. Society Power is a winner of his last 4 starts for William Haggas & is bidding for a 5 timer here but I think this is tougher & he’ll have to improve to go in again. It’s possible, of course, but not for me at 4/1.
Betting
I fancy the chances of the bottom weight Maverick Officer who is 4lbs higher than when an unlucky 2nd at Doncaster last Saturday. He won a 7 furlong novice race on the all weather in December in fine style, showing a smart turn of foot. Reappearing last week, he travelled like the winner all through the race sitting off the pace & never looked in any trouble. But, unbelievably, he managed to find trouble in an 8 runner race but I’m still not sure why Jamie Spencer saw fit to switch him right across the track to make his challenge. He was narrowled denied but is surely the one to take from the race.
Given a better ride here & back over a shorter trip which I think suits, he looks a big contender to land this good prize.
Tips
PLACED at 10/1 – Back Maverick Officer (e/w) for a 0.75/10 stake at 8.50 Betfair Sportsbook BOG (¼ odds 1-4)
Back it here:
2.55 Chester
Preview
This is all about horses for course & I just cannot ignore Sound Advice running at Chester over 7 furlongs, especially when conditions are in his favour which they are today.
Betting
He’s been around the tight turns of the Roodee on 10 occasions, winning 4 times. However, the stats are even more interesting than that; 5 times, he’s raced off a mark off 100+ & he’s lost on each occasion. He’s raced off 94, 98 3 times & 99 on the other 4 starts & won them 4 of them. He’s off 98 today.
The draw is important at Chester & he’s coming out of stall 1; his wins have come from stalls 1,5,6 & 8. Of his 6 defeats, he’s come out of stalls 6 or higher on 5 occasions. Last time, he exited from stall 2 but finished 4th behind Baraweez but that was his seasonal reappearance.
The one race that puts a blot on the above stats is last time out where he was 4th off 98, coming from stall 2. But what is important to note is that he’s never won after an absence & that run came after a break of 251 days. Even more interesting is that he’s won 4 of his 7 races on his 2nd start back after an absence of 50+ days.
Everything is pointing to a 5th course win for the popular gelding.
Tips
Back Sound Advice (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 8.50 Coral BOG (¼ odds 1-3)
Back it here:
3.40 York
Preview
Our final bet comes in the 5 furlong cavalry charge at York where the bookies go 8/1 the field. The first thing to say is that there’s pace right across the track so I’m struggling to believe there’s any draw bias. What I can say is that this will be run at a good clip & you’ll need a horse that gets every yard of the trip & possibly has form over further.
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Betting
That leads me to backing Mr Lupton. He’s been mainly campaigned over 6 furlongs but has a good record over 5 furlongs, & importantly has a good draw next door to the pace pusher El Astronaute.
He’s been a tough horse to place as he’s somewhere between a handicapper & a Group horse. The issue has been protecting his mark so he can run in handicaps & he gets in here off a mark of 103. On 12 occasions, he’s raced in Listed or Group company failing to win a single race although his best run was on his seasonal reappearance when 2nd to Perfect Pasture at Doncaster. On the flip side, he’s raced in Class 2 handicap company 7 times, winning twice (including once here) & placing on 3 further occasions.
He won a big handicap at Newmarket 12 months on quickish ground off a mark of 107 & since then has run in 3 handicap. He was placed (4th of 17) in a heritage handicap at Haydock on bottomless ground off 108 but unplaced as favourite here when given a poor ride by a 7lb claimer. After opening this term with that 2nd in Listed company, he stayed on into 6th when again favourite at Newmarket over 6 furlongs. It would suggest that 5 furlongs is against him but I disagree. The key is to ride him up with the pace & I think today’s jockey will do that & it helps having a speedster in the next stall. At Newmarket last time, Jamie Spencer gave him a typical Spencer ride & was too far back to do anything as Gifted Master stole the race from the front.
Provided my thoughts on the trip are correct, he looks a big price in this competitive handicap.
Tips
WON – Back Mr Lupton (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 William Hill BOG (⅕ odds 1-5)
Back it here:
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