Classic trial day at Lingfield, Ascot’s Victoria Cup, the Swinton Hurdle from Haydock and the Kentucky Derby (for fans of US racing) are the highlights on a cracking day’s racing. A separate preview of the big race from the US will come later but, for now, here’s 4 bets from this side of the pond, including one in the big handicap, the Victoria Cup.
2.20 Lingfield
Despite being only 9 runners, this looks to be a competitive 1 mile, Class 3 handicap and I’m chancing one of the outsiders to prevail. Outer Space, under Ryan Moore, is the favourite but his likeness for finishing 3rd off this mark is worrying and he’s not the best option for a win bet whilst Bow And Arrow has a long absence to overcome and may not stay the extra furlong.
With a decent pace likely, I like the each way chances of Lexington Times. He likes to be held up and this track suits those coming from off the pace so I really ignore the 16/1 on offer. His stable is amongst the winners and, whilst his jockey is inexperienced, she does claim 7lb which, in theory, makes our horse incredibly well handicapped.
Just 12 months ago, Lexington Times ran in the Irish Guineas and is now racing off 94 in a Class 3 handicap. He hasn’t shown an awful lot on turf and looks to be unsuited by soft ground as his last run at Newmarket showed. He’s also struggled on the fibresand (slow ground) at Southwell. He’s raced 5 times here at Lingfield and is best judged on those runs. His record reads 1-3-2-0-5 and, whilst the 0-5 form are his most recent Lingfield form, he’s no forlorn hope.
Last spring, he won a listed race here before finishing 3rd on all weather championships day and then followed that with a 2nd in another listed heat. I’m prepared to ignore his 10th place finish in a Class 2 last October where he was trapped out wide and never looked comfortable. That was off a mark of 100. On his reappearance here in another Class 2 off 96, he finished a close up 5th of 8 to Shyron when staying on well in a race not run to suit.
With a good draw, a fast pace and the extra furlong likely to suit, it would be no surprise to see him get into the mix at rewarding odds of 16/1.
Back Lexington Times (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 17.00 with Coral (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
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4.15 Ascot: Victoria Cup
29 go to post for this Heritage Handicap and there should be no hard luck stories with regards to the draw as there appears to be pace all across the track. I think middle to high on the draw front is preferred and that’s where my bet comes from. In these types of races, you either need a horse proven in big field Ascot races that look well handicapped (there appears to be a distinct lack of such types) or a lightly raced, improving 4 year old that is likely to go onto better things.
Predominance, Hold Tight and Grand Inquisitor appear to be 3 improvers to concentrate on. Predominance is the current favourite and won a competitive Haydock race last time out off 6lb lower. My concern is that every run has been on the easy side of good and we have to take on trust his liking for fast ground. Hold Tight hails from the Bin Suroor stable who has struggled for winners recently. In addition, he’s only raced 3 times, 2 on the all-weather and once on soft. A big field here is a different proposition and he is passed over.
I’m therefore taking Sir Michael Stoute’s Grand Inquisitor. The stable is in good form which is a positive and our horse comes here having already raced this term so his fitness will be guaranteed. He’s a winner of 2 of his 7 races and he’s a certainty to stay the trip having form over a furlong further. In fact, I like horses that have form over an extra furlong in big field handicaps as stamina is generally at a premium. That is enhanced over the stiff straight course of Ascot.
He ran an ok race on his reappearance where the ground was much too soft and, after being hampered 2 furlongs out, he was tenderly handled in finishing 6th of 15. On 2 other occasions last year, he encountered soft ground and didn’t disgrace himself. However, his best form was on better ground; he won a Class 3 handicap over this trip at another stiff track, Sandown, and ran a cracker in 3rd on good ground off 1lb lower at Newmarket.
Without doubt, he needs to improve to take a hand but fast ground, a stiff 7 furlongs and big field / fast pace all look to be in his favour. He has a decent draw and, like recent winners, likes to sit off the pace and come through with a late burst. Interesting too that Sir Michael only sends 1 to the meeting and he looks the most likely of the younger brigade to land this valuable prize.
PLACED – Back Grand Inquisitor (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 12.00 with Coral (1/4 odds 1-5 BOG)
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4.25 Nottingham
10 furlongs and 10 runners for this open looking Class 4 handicap. The race revolves around Rock Song, I Am Not Here and Ataman but I cannot be having any of them. Rock Song is probably the most solid having won his last 2 but I’m not convinced he’ll be able to defy an 8lb rise. I Am Not Here is 2lb here than his pair of recent 2nds but now has better ground to overcome and well as another rise in grade. He could still be on the upgrade but I’ll look elsewhere with just odds of 7/2 available. Ataman is a 4 race maiden and I can’t be putting my faith in him as his form is better over further on softer ground.
The one to carry my confidence is the bottom one, Cosmic Halo. Bear with me on this one; he hasn’t since 2014 and ran an awful race last time out at Pontefract but there are reasons galore for recent poor efforts. Firstly, you can discount any runs on good or softer (he’s 1 from 16) and ignore all all- weather runs (0 from 15). In fact, his last 14 runs have had one of the above excuses and that dates back to 2014.
What he needs and what he gets today is fast ground, a surface he has a record of 3 from 12 on. He also doesn’t stay beyond 10 furlongs so conditions of 10 furlongs on good to firm are ideal. In fact, his record at a maximum of this trip on his required ground reads 1 (maiden) – 1 (off 66) – 2 (71) – 9 (75) – 5 (75) – 5 (75) – 2 (74) – 1 (73) – 4 (79) – 3 (78). Today he races off just 65 so on the basis he’s yet to finish outside the first 2 off marks up to 74 with his preferred conditions, he looks supremely well handicapped. Admittedly, whether he retains his old ability has to be taken on trust but odds of 12/1 more than compensate for that.
Back Cosmic Halo (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with Bet365 (1/5 odds 1-3 BOG)
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4.45 Ascot
Another big field of 22 runners for a Class 4 6f sprint. Top weight is Big Lad, a lightly raced 4 year old that is 3 from 3 in his career with all wins coming on the all-weather. This is altogether more difficult and it’s a big ask for him to make it 4 from 4 in this company. On better ground, I’m interested in Intisaab from the O’Meara yard who has come down in the weights after 2 runs finishing in midfield on unsuitable going.
However, the one I like here is the bottom weight that is Salvatore Fury. The first thing to say is that his trainer, Keith Dalgleish, is in cracking form with 4 of his last 7 runners winning, and another finishing just out of the places at 25/1. Additionally, he has just one runner at Ascot on Saturday and has sent it down all the way from Scotland. He also sent just one here on Friday, which win at 3/1. It’s certainly a long way to travel if he doesn’t have a chance.
Our horse is also better on ground with firm in the description which he gets today, with a record of 3 wins, 13 places from 24 runs against 1 win, 3 places from 19 on good or worse ground. He also has the assistance of Jim Crowley doing the steering, who has won twice and finished twice in just 5 rides on the horse. Stats wise, Salvatore Fury must hold a super chance.
It’s important he gets cover in his races so the fact he’s in a field of 22 can only be good news and he should be able to sit off the pace and come through with a late burst. He’s run 3 times in fields of 20 runners plus, finishing down the field once on soft ground, a close up 7th when the ground was only good and 3rd of 21 in a 5 furlong sprint on his ground at Goodwood when being badly hampered at a crucial stage.
So, what of his form? He’s raced once this season over a turning 7 furlongs at Musselburgh, something that was never going to suit and he finished midfield. He’s never won after a break of more than a month so it was no surprise he didn’t win and the handicapper somehow responded by reducing him 2lb in mark to just 70, a mark he’s defied twice in the past. His best form last term was on the all-weather but, coincidentally, those 2 races were when Crowley took the ride. It looks all over that the stable has laid him out for this and, at 16/1, it’s a chance well worth taking.
Back Salvatore Fury (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 17.00 with Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
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