The May Chester meeting starts today with the highlight being the Chester Cup handicap. There’s also the Cheshire Oaks as well as a big 5 furlong sprint handicap, and it’s the 2 handicaps that are the focus for our bets on the opening day of the 3 day meeting.
3.10 Chester: Chester Cup Handicap
A marathon trip of 2 miles 2 furlongs with a big field of 19 runners on this very tight left handed track. Despite the marathon distance, a low draw is normally an advantage although, this year, I feel it’s more about racing style as there is a distinct lack of pace in this renewal. Irrespective of draw, I think this race will be suited to prominent types and those drawn wider than ideal might have the chance to tack over to the rail.
The favourite is Steve Rogers from the Roger Varian yard but 7/2 is no price in such a competitive heat and, whilst his claims are solid, I’d rather be a layer than a player at those prices. Admittedly, he’s won 6 of his last 9 starts, has a low draw and will definitely stay but he was beat in the Cesarewitch and finished behind some of his opponents here today. Quick Jack finished 2nd here last term off 6lb lower when a well backed favourite, and he’s also drawn very wide so I don’t really see why he’s likely to go one better this year whilst Silver Concorde hails from a shrewd Irish yard but may not appreciate the drying ground. Gang Warfare is the other horse prominent in the betting but his mark has gone up 29lb following 4 wins on the all-weather and there remains question marks as to whether he’s as good as turf.
I’m taking 2 in this race and very backable each way prices, the first of which is Le Maitre Chat. A 5 year old that’s only raced 12 times, he is still open to improvement and gets in here off a reasonable mark off 93. Admittedly, he’s only won a maiden but has since finished 2nd twice, 3rd twice and 4th twice in handicaps. In fact, 2 of his last 3 runs have seen his worst 2 runs but both times he had excuses. Soft ground was against the horse at Ascot whilst he didn’t look to be suited on his one and only start of the all-weather. Our selection is better judged on his 6th of 34 in the Cesarewitch, finishing in front of Steve Rogers that day, albeit from a better draw. He stayed on really well that day and is only 1lb higher in the handicap today. This is his seasonal reappearance today which is a slight concern but I’m sure the trainer will have him spot on, and he’ll be ably assisted by Franny Norton, who rides Chester better than any jockey around.
The 2nd bet is the bigger priced, William Of Orange. He’s drawn wider in 14 but likes to race prominently and should be able to get a good early position. He’s out of a National Hunt yard that has an excellent record in this race and last year’s winning jockey gets the leg up. His only poor run on the flat was in the Cesarewitch but he sweated up badly that day and we can put a line through that form. Otherwise, he’s run a series of good races in decent company and, like our other pick, still has improvement in him. He has raced 4 times over hurdles this winter and whilst his form has been modest, each one of those was on soft ground, something that doesn’t suit at all. Better ground today will suit and the trip will pose no problems at all. 25/1 looks a huge price.
Tips
Back Le Maitre Chat (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Ladbrokes (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
Back William Of Orange (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 Coral (1/4 odds 1-4 BOG)
Back it here:
3.45 Chester
5 furlong Class 2 handicap with 15 runners and everyone has a preconception that you need to be a front runner from a low draw (stalls 1-5). If you don’t fulfil this criteria, then you’re considered as having no chance. I don’t buy that and, for this reason, we quite often see some value prices available as the low drawn races are automatically trading at poor value prices.
Interestingly, as the inside runners don’t want to get boxed in, they invariably go off very hard so something drawn wider out can tack over towards the rail, meaning they can go the shortest way round, and sit off a strong pace before making a late run. That’s the approach I’m taking here. The 4 market leaders are drawn 1-2-3-4 and, of them, at least 2 of them will go off very hard in Roudee and Mukyanis. The other 2, Growl and Kimberella, will also race prominently whilst the 2 horses in stalls 5 and 6, Seve and Avon Breeze, will also be right up there.
That brings me to the selection, drawn in stall 7, Lexington Place. He’s a strong travelling 6 year old that has won 9 of his 34 starts. He loves good or better ground, is best coming off a fast pace and has a preference for sharp tracks. In fact, his record when getting those conditions reads 1239221 so the 14/1 available looks generous. He stands his racing well and, after a much needed reappearance last term, he won 4 of his first 8 starts and finished no worse than 4th in any of those races. He was then raised to a mark in and around the 88 he runs off today and has run 4 times since but all on ground softer than ideal. He was a very close up 4th in this grade at Haydock when the straight track didn’t help (run out of it close home) whilst the stiff 5 furlongs at Leicester was against him. He’s since experienced proper soft ground twice including when running a good race at Beverley on his reappearance. He travelled smoothly into contention before the ground found him out. That was a race full of promise and, if things pan out right (ie. good ground, able to tack over and gets a clear run late on), I think he’s a massive price.
Tips
Back Lexington Place (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 Betfair Sportsbook (1/4 odds 1-3 BOG)
Back it here:
