The first semi-final of the Champions Trophy sees the tournament hosts and favourites England taking on Pakistan in Cardiff on Wednesday for the right to meet India or Bangladesh in Sunday’s final.
England made it into this semi-final courtesy of winning Group A with three wins while Pakistan had a much hairier route with two edgy wins and a much bigger defeat during their group games.
England
It was almost a perfect group stage for England. They won all three matches and were asked different questions and on each occasion they had the answer. Could their bowlers defend a total? They did that against New Zealand. Could England score big if they lost early wickets? They did that against Australia. Could England chase down 300+ under pressure? They did that against Bangladesh.
In an absolute perfect world Jason Roy would have got some runs along the way but he contributed to the win over Australia with a wonderful catch on the boundary to send Glenn Maxwell on his way so everyone who has played so far has contributed to a win in one way or another and that is a good spot for the home side to be in.
Pakistan
I guess in many ways Pakistan confirmed what we knew about them heading into the tournament in their group stage but actually we saw something we don’t normally see from them in their final match against Sri Lanka. We saw fight, determination, spirit and quality and if they have any of that left they can’t be ruled out.
We have to acknowledge that Pakistan were woeful against India in their first match but since then they have delivered two brilliant bowling performances and have had just enough with the bat to get themselves over the line. They are going to be tested with both the bat and the ball here but when few give them a chance can often be when they are most dangerous.
Team News
Talk is getting stronger in the lead up to the match that Jason Roy’s poor run of form is going to cost him his place in the side. Jonny Bairstow is set to come in and open the batting which might be a risky move.
Pakistan may not change a winning side but with this match being played on the same pitch they beat Sri Lanka on the extra spin option of Shadab Khan has to be considered especially with England not always the best players of leg spin.
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Betting
I’ve got England winning this match but they are no price to do so. That said I probably wouldn’t back them even if they were because if there is one thing the last week has told us it is that this tournament is as unpredictable as they come.
I expect England to make a good start with the ball in this match. Mark Wood has generally been on it right from the off and he has been there or thereabouts at the end too and he can be a big player in this match. He has a performance line of 32.5. Usually I wouldn’t touch a player who is likely only to contribute in one facet of the game but Wood is bowling really well and his length combined with pace can have Pakistan reeling in the way Morne Morkel did when they played South Africa. I like Wood to pick up two wickets here.
I’m also going to take the Pakistan captain Sarfraz Ahmed to top score for his side. He seems to like Cardiff. He led Pakistan to victory in an ODI here last year with 90 and top scored against in the win over Sri Lanka on Monday. We saw in that Sri Lanka match how he is a nuggetty, gritty little fighter and those attributes can lead him to back to back top scores.
Tips
Back M.Wood’s Performance – Over 32.5pts for a 4/10 stake at 1.80 with Bet365
Back it here:
Back S.Ahmed Top Pakistan Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 10.00 with Betfred
Back him here:
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