The ICC Cricket World Cup 2023 heads to Bangalore for the first time on Friday as two powerhouses of the world game meet in a huge clash as Australia take on Pakistan in what would be a repeat of the 1999 final.
Australia started the tournament very slowly but did manage to win their latest match while Pakistan began their campaign very well but suffered a nasty defeat in their most recent outing so this feels delicately poised.
Australia
I think Australia went into this tournament as the next best behind India in the eyes of many judges. That was certainly my feeling as much for the decent enough form they had shown in the lead up to the event as their record in these 50 over competitions which is very strong. You wouldn’t have thought that was the case though when they were resoundingly beaten by both India and South Africa to open up their tilt at the title.
Things didn’t look like they were going much better in the third game when the Sri Lankan opening pair had cruised to 125-0 in the third game but as conditions in Lucknow changed their opponents fell apart and in the end Australia were able to get off the mark in relatively routine fashion even allowing for a bit of a scare along the way. They will know they need better than what they have shown so far if they are going to win this match and then push on and be a factor in the rest of the tournament though.
Pakistan
It was smooth enough for Pakistan in their opening two matches without ever truly being plain sailing but when the big wall came in their way in the third game they were unable to get over it. Pakistan are still in a decent position but the way they lost to India has plenty of people wondering if they are just going to have an acceptable event but not be genuine contenders. The losing to India wasn’t an issue it was the way that the minute a bit of pressure came they crumbled that was the real concern.
With the exception of Mohammad Rizwan the Pakistan batting hasn’t really hit top form in the tournament yet and the lack of form in a few players was ruthlessly exposed by India. Those players need to come to the party soon but the bigger concern for me is that this Pakistan attack are fine when they get on top of a team early but if you get away from them they can unravel quite quickly and that feels like a real danger here.
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Team News
Australia did have fitness doubts over a back injury to Adam Zampa but Pat Cummins has declared the spinner is fine to play in this match. Assuming that is the truth then Australia are likely to field an unchanged team.
It would appear that Pakistan are going to make at least one change to their side after the defeat to India but as ever seems to be the case when the batting fails the change will be in the bowling department with Usama Mir coming in for either Shadab Khan or Mohammad Nawaz. Fakhar Zaman is out injured.
Betting
The immediate go to thought when a match takes place in Bangalore is to look at the sixes line and when you get a 13.5 offering I think you are almost obliged to play the over but I particularly like it here because both teams have had damage done to their net run rate and a ground like this would represent a good chance to address it should they get a partnership going and the match looks like going their way.
Australia are a side who hit big anyway and this ground certainly isn’t big enough for the likes of David Warner, Mitchell Marsh, Marcus Stoinis and of course Glenn Maxwell for whom this is his home ground in the IPL. Pakistan have a couple of bigger hitters down the order as well but even their classier batters will hit sixes here. All the talk is that a flat track has been prepared for this match and it usually is good for batting here. There is a history of sixes in ODI cricket on this ground and I expect to see 14 more here.
Tips
Back Over 13.5 sixes for a 3/10 stake at 1.73 with Betfair
