Having looked at the outright market and the top batter one ahead of the ICC Cricket World Cup beginning, there is just enough time to take a peek at the top bowler offering for what is likely to be an entertaining tournament.
The best bowlers in the world are on show in this tournament if they are fit and one of those is Mitchell Starc who has either won or been the joint winner of the leading wicket taker in the last two World Cup’s.
Recent Winners
2019 – Mitchell Starc (27)
2015 – Mitchell Starc & Trent Boult (22)
2011 – Shahid Afridi & Zaheer Khan (21)
2007 – Glenn McGrath (26)
2003 – Chaminda Vaas (23)
1999 – Geoff Allott & Shane Warne (20)
Market Leaders
We have joint favourites in this market this year with Shaheen Shah Afridi and Kuldeep Yadav the 10/1 market leaders. The former is arguably the best bowler in the world in this format but his Pakistan side aren’t likely to have an enjoyable time of it in this event. The issue with Yadav is two-fold, firstly India have a decent seam attack and they also have a lot of spin options and are going to share the wickets out a little.
Jasprit Bumrah and Mitchell Starc are both 12/1 to lead the wicket taking in this tournament. The former would have a similar issue to Yadav and you wonder if he’ll be rested when the chance arises the longer the competition goes on, especially if India are already through. The latter is very much a top bowler in ODI cricket but you wonder if he will be as successful in Indian conditions as he was in home ones and in England.
Mohammed Siraj comes next in the market at 14/1. The same thing which has been said about Kuldeep Yadav and Jasprit Bumrah would apply to Siraj although if there is one Indian who gets targeted then it could be him with sides unlikely to score against Bumrah, Mohammad Shami or the spinners quite as easily. That could bring him a little more into the game but I still fear India will share their wickets around a little too much.
Trent Boult, Rashid Khan and Mohammad Shami are all 16/1 to top the wicket charts. The latter is another who is going to have that issue with India splitting the wickets around. Rashid Khan doesn’t have nearly as good a record in ODI cricket where teams can milk him more and he doesn’t appeal at the prices, especially as Afghanistan are unlikely to make it into the knockout stages. Boult would be of more interest but he is probably no more than a fair price.
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Narrowing the Field
Unlike with the batsmen, there isn’t really too many ways to narrow down the field here. There aren’t many bowler friendly tracks in India at the present time and the ones that there are, notably Chennai and Delhi, don’t host enough matches to give off an advantage anywhere which is less than ideal to say the least.
With that in mind, the only real way to narrow down this field is to choose whether to take seamers or spinners and to make sure that we get on players who we think will be in the semi-final and hopefully the final. If we look at the roll of honour above at least one of the two winners each year has made the semi-final. The only anomaly to that was Chaminda Vaas in 2003. Both winners in 2015 competed in the final so that looks a massive advantage.
Profile
I think you either want someone with extreme pace in this tournament or mystery spin. I don’t think there is going to be too much for the medium pacers who swing the ball. There has been a lot of rain around India in the lead up to this tournament and if that lingers in the early stages then that will negate much of the swing. There is also going to be dew around if the rain isn’t so the swing bowlers aren’t for me. If I’m taking a seamer he has to bowl at the death and if I’m taking a spinner he has to be a wrist one.
Betting
I’ll go with a pair of seamers in this tournament with both of them bowling at the beginning and the end of the innings which I think will be key. The first is Haris Rauf who was expensive in the warm up matches but who I think will come good when it matters. He is an excellent Yorker bowler and is very good at the death but he can be used strongly early in the innings and in the middle overs as well. He and Shaheen Shah Afridi will most likely bowl around the same times yet Rauf is twice the price of Afridi. That doesn’t make a whole lot of sense so at 20/1 Rauf is my first pick.
With Anrich Nortje not around South Africa are going to need to use the Kagiso Rabada overs wisely and I think he is a big price at 25/1 as he’ll extract and seam and swing from the pitches in the initial powerplay and then his pace will pick up some cheap wickets at the end of innings either from players slogging for a score or tail enders who can’t handle the quality that he brings. I don’t see South Africa as a team who will share their wickets around too much so the 25/1 on the leader of their attack feels like a big price.
Tips
Back H.Rauf Top Tournament Bowler (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 21.00 with Coral (1/4 1-4)
Back K.Rabada Top Tournament Bowler (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 26.00 with Boylesports (1/4 1-5)
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