After a near washed out second Test in Bangalore, India and South Africa will hope to get back on the cricket field this week as they head to much sunnier climbs in Nagpur for the third match of four in the series.
This isn’t your average Test match though. An India win here will secure them the series with a match to spare. That would be just South Africa’s second defeat in 20 series so they will be looking to avoid defeat to protect that fine record. In an ideal world they will win the game and level the series.
India have dominated the series so far even though they haven’t really batted like they can do. That will give them some confidence going into another match where spin is likely to have a major impact on the contest.
South Africa will know they’ve bowled well in the series so far but they’ve been even worse than India with the bat. They will also be well aware that the likes of Hashim Amla and AB de Villiers are due a big knock and if they come here they will be in business.
India have one selection issue it would appear. They seem likely to play three spinners so it is just whether they go in with five batsmen and the extra seamer or the extra batsman over the seamer. With their batting struggling Rohit Sharma could get the nod.
South Africa seem certain to be without Dale Steyn which is a big blow to their chances. That said they do have JP Duminy back and his presence not only with the bat but certainly with the ball allows them to have a better balance. They could in theory play three spinners themselves with just Abbott or Rabada partnering Morne Morkel.
The Vidarbha Cricket Association Stadium in Nagpur is the venue for this potentially decisive third Test. It will be the fifth time it has staged a Test match and the first time since 2012. India have won two of the previous four here but South Africa are the only side who have beaten them on this ground.
The curator has been quoted as saying that this wicket will turn hard by tea on the opening day so both sides should be expecting another trial by spin but I don’t think that will surprise anyone.
India look favourites in these conditions but the fact South Africa tamed them last time they were here and the fact that India aren’t batting great at the minute puts me off them a little at odds on. I’ll go to the side markets for a bet here.
You can get 2/1 on both sides batting on the first day and given that the wicket is expected to turn sharply on the first day there looks to be enough in that price to tempt me in. We’re yet to have an innings longer than 75 overs in this series yet and both teams have batted on both opening days thus far. That looks good value for it to continue here.
I’m also going to go with Ravindra Jadeja to be the top India bowler in the first innings again. He has done us a good turn throughout the series so far and given that his effect shows no sign of diminishing the 3/1 on him taking the most first innings wickets looks attractive enough.
Back Both teams to bat on Day 1 for a 3/10 stake at 3.00 with Sportingbet
Back R.Jadeja Top India Bowler for a 2/10 stake at 4.00 with Coral
