A pretty comfortable win for India on Thursday set up a fascinating finale to their ODI series with South Africa, a series which will be decided in the fifth and final match at the Wankhede Stadium on Sunday.
South Africa have already won the T20 series on this tour and it would be a real feather in their cap if they win a five match series in India’s strongest format. India have come from behind twice in this series and now have to show they can go on and win from a level position so this is perfectly set up.
India’s batting still hasn’t fired in this series yet but it will encourage them that Virat Kohli came back to form in the last game. With he, Rohit Sharma and MS Dhoni in good form they always have a chance especially if Suresh Raina, Ajinkya Rahane or Shikhar Dhawan can support them.
South Africa will be concerned that AB de Villiers hit a better than a run a ball century in the last match and they still got nowhere near winning. With JP Duminy out of their side their balance is a bit lop-sided which isn’t ideal and I wonder if they have the batting to cope in his absence.
I wouldn’t expect India to make too many changes. There doesn’t look like there is anyone knocking the door down to come in and they’ve just won their last match so I’m expecting the same side.
South Africa might feel they need to change things. Dean Elgar would add some depth to their batting but it could be their bowling where they need to add some spite on what is expected to be something of a road in Mumbai.
The Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai stages this final match of the series. This will be just the second match here since India beat Sri Lanka in that epic World Cup final in 2011 so it will be a ground which holds fond memories for the home men.
The wicket here is always good for batting and we see in the Indian Premier League how tough the ground can be to defend in the second innings so whoever bats first will need a huge score if they are to win the game.
Given how hard this ground can be to defend I’m going to leave the match betting alone. I expect India to win but the need to bat second is too big for me to take them at 8/11. Instead I’m going to head to the sixes market.
The low line is 8.5 and while history suggests there aren’t many sixes on this ground I actually think that will be covered here. India need a big score if they bat first while South Africa are much more dynamic than they ever used to be. If AB de Villiers gets going he’ll take a significant chunk out of this line but there are plenty of big hitters on show so I like the overs here.
Back Over 8.5 sixes for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with Stan James
