The regular season is behind us now in the Indian Premier League and now the real stuff begins as the play-offs get underway on Tuesday with Qualifier 1 when the Mumbai Indians host the Rising Pune Supergiant in a Maharashtra derby with a difference.
Although this isn’t knockout cricket the incentive for the winners isn’t just bragging rights. They will be straight through to the final while the losers will have to try again on Friday to make it to the final. Rising Pune Supergiant won both matches between the two in the regular season.
Mumbai Indians
The table topping Mumbai Indians happen to get home advantage in this match purely by chance but it is something they will be looking to take full advantage of. Mumbai have spent much of the season on top of the table but they haven’t been able to beat Pune this season so that is something they’ll want to change here.
It is a good thing for the Indians that their batting has come good in the last few matches but if they are going to win this title then it will be down to their bowlers to do the job as it will be for all four sides left in the competition. It is the bowling that wins these matches and the Mumbai attack looks pretty strong.
Rising Pune Supergiant
In many ways it could be argued that the Rising Pune Supergiant are the ones heading into the play-offs in the best form but there is a strange thing that they are about to embark on their second or third last match as a franchise. Whether that is being used as a motivating factor only they will know but it is strange.
Given that these play-offs will be won by the side who bowls the best it should be noted just how well the Supergiant are bowling, especially at the death, and if that continues they will be dangerous. Although this will be their first play-off match as a franchise they have plenty of play-off experience in their ranks.
Team News
Mumbai Indians made plenty of changes for their last regular season game and the majority of those who were left out will return. Ambati Rayudu delivered a big performance though so he could get in ahead of Nitish Rana.
Rising Pune will have to win these play-offs without Ben Stokes. He has joined Imran Tahir and Faf du Plessis on leaving for international duty. Usman Khawaja could replace him as could an all-rounder in Rajat Bhatia.
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Betting
I always think this match has the most potential of the entire tournament to be either high scoring or a complete and utter blowout. I say that because the chasing side has little to lose here. They can either chase a total down or give it the big one and fall like a deck of cards. There is no consideration for protecting run rates or anything like that.
That said on this ground I think it is likely to be a higher scoring match than the alternative. Both their matches so far this season have been relatively high scoring and with this not being a knockout match there is no reason for this one not to be. When the two met at the Wankhede earlier in the season there were 41 boundaries but since then Mumbai’s batting has improved, as has the wicket here. I fancy a boundary total nearer to 50 if not just over it.
Someone is going to have to replace Ben Stokes’ role in this Pune side. It could be that they stick a batsman up the order to do it but I just wonder if on this Wankhede ground they will bring in an all-rounder to give themselves another bowling option. If they do that then it could be that they move Dan Christian into the Stokes’ role.
There is no doubt he isn’t a Ben Stokes in terms of all-round quality but he’s an able cricketer in his own right and if he mirrors Stokes’ role and bats at four or five he could be a big price to top score. Christian has nine 50s and a century in this format of the game so if given a deeper innings he could easily go big in the way Stokes might have done.
Tips
Back Over 46.5 boundaries for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
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Back D.Christian Top Rising Pune Supergiant Batsman for a 1/10 stake at 13.00 with Ladbrokes
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