With the quality of player in the Indian Premier League being so strong the competition for the orange cap for the top batsman is always a fiercely competitive one and this year is no different.
Near enough anyone who is anyone will be in India for the next two months and with the quality on show plenty of runs will be scored in another frantic race for the orange cap come the end of the campaign.
Recent Winners
2016 – Virat Kohli
2015 – David Warner
2014 – Robin Uthappa
2013 – Michael Hussey
2012 – Chris Gayle
2011 – Chris Gayle
2010 – Sachin Tendulkar
2009 – Matthew Hayden
2008 – Shaun Marsh
Overview
The first thing we notice from the list of winners of the orange cap is that Indians have only taken the crown on three of the nine occasions the tournament has been played thus far. That suggests we might be looking for an overseas player here. The other thing to note is the quality of player who wins it. With the exception perhaps of Robin Uthappa they have all been genuine superstars of the game.
Market Leaders
Virat Kohli nearly went past 1000 runs in an insane season of form 12 months ago and he is the favourite to follow in the footsteps of his Bangalore teammate Chris Gayle and win the orange cap for a second year in a row. Kohli definitely misses the start of the tournament though and could miss up to six games so his 5/1 odds aren’t for me.
David Warner has been first and second in this in the last two seasons and you would think everything is set for him to go well again, not least the fact he has been in India for the last six weeks playing a Test series. The only thing that puts me off him is the price which at 7/1 is a shade on the skinny side.
AB de Villiers is a genuine class act who can turn it on at any point but at 11/1 we need everything to be in our favour and there are doubts about his back heading into the campaign so I wonder if he’ll play every game. At that price I would be wanting to know he will and given we don’t I’ll pass him over too.
Rohit Sharma has been one of the best limited overs batsmen in India for the last 2-3 years but he is just coming back from five months out so 14/1 quotes don’t interest me. I’d be more interested in Ajinkya Rahane but something is holding me back from backing him. I see no reason why he won’t have a good season but others offer better appeal.
Steve Smith, Brendon McCullum, Chris Gayle, Gautam Gambhir and Suresh Raina all go into the tournament between 20/1 and 25/1 to top score but three of those players are captains who I don’t like taking because of the external pressures on them while Brendon McCullum didn’t go great in the PSL recently. Chris Gayle would be a huge price if you could trust his fitness.
Profile
I always like to come up with a profile of a person to back when I enter into these markets and in India especially it is important to bat at the top of the innings. In an ideal world we would take an opener but I wouldn’t want anyone too much lower than number three and certainly no lower than number four.
It is also worth looking for players who play their home games on one of the better tracks for batting as over as many as seven home games that can yield a significant advantage and every gain we can get could make the difference.
Betting
There are two batsmen I like in this market and I’m going to take an Indian and an overseas player. As ever I’ve gone for a bit of value which I always think is important especially in this market where an injury can nail you at any point.
The Indian I like is Shikhar Dhawan of the Sunrisers. Dhawan was fifth in the run charts last season but I believe he arrives into this campaign in better form. He may have lost his place in the India side but that should only add to his motivation. In the recent Deodhar Trophy, Dhawan notched up scores of 128, 50 and 45 so he is hitting the ball nicely and that should have primed him up perfectly to fill his boots throughout the course of this season.
Virat Kohli’s injury is going to open the door for someone to open the batting for the Royal Challengers Bangalore this season. KL Rahul would have been the obvious alternative but he’s out for the season now so the role could be given to Shane Watson which makes the 50/1 quotes on him look big.
If Kohli does miss 5-6 matches he’ll miss three in Bangalore where Watson can fill his boots and if Gayle runs out of form or goes down injured at any point Watson may not lose the job. Few hit the ball as cleanly as Watson and if he can see a significant portion of time opening the batting he could well outscore the field this season.
Tips
PLACED – Back S.Dhawan Top Tournament Batsman (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 29.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-4)
Back S.Watson Top Tournament Batsman (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 51.00 with Skybet (1/4 1-4)
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