The second match of the double header in the Indian Premier League on Saturday is almost a playoff for the playoffs as the Gujarat Lions take on the defending champions Mumbai Indians in Kanpur.
Gujarat’s flying start to the season made them look a certainty for the playoffs and a win here and they will be but a defeat with their rotten run rate could spell the end for them. Mumbai have to win, probably win big and hope other results on Sunday go their way if their title defence is to continue beyond this match.
Gujarat Lions
The Lions looked like they were going to be unstoppable in the early stages of this tournament but then they skidded to a halt so they will have been delighted to see off the Kolata Knight Riders here earlier in the week to hopefully give them some positive momentum to build on.
I still maintain their side would be better balanced with James Faulkner in it although if Dwayne Smith can produce a few more bowling efforts like the one he did in the last match that balance will automatically be solved. He needs to keep performing though because Aaron Finch won’t be dropped.
Mumbai Indians
This looked like being the usual Mumbai Indians season where they began slowly before clicking into gear and powering through the field and going into the playoffs in top form and challenging hard for the title but things haven’t really gone as planned. They did have a run of form where they looked like coming good but then they stalled again and things are no longer in their own hands.
Finding an opening partnership that has worked has been tough for the champions this season and also finding the right combination with their bowlers has been tricky too but it says a lot about how much talent they have that despite their issues Corey Anderson is still waiting for a seasonal bow.
Team news
It is hard to see the Lions changing their side after such a convincing and dominant win in their last match. If anything changes it will come to their bowling attack but only a late injury would force their hand surely.
Mumbai might be unchanged after their huge win last time out too. Their win was convincing in size but they won’t be able to rely on Krunal Pandya belting 86 from 37 balls in every match. If Mumbai do make a change it might be to bring the other Pandya brother in on a green seamer.
Form
Gujarat Lions: WWWLWWWLLLWLW
Mumbai Indians: LWLLWLWWWLWLW
Head to head: Gujarat Lions 1-0 Mumbai Indians
In Kanpur: First meeting
Green Park
It is very apt that this ground is called Green Park because the wicket here in the first match on the ground on Thursday was one of the greenest tracks I’ve ever seen. That doesn’t mean it played badly but aesthetically I could see why the batsmen were a little unsure of themselves.
The ground here is pretty small and the outfield is lightning fast and now that players have seen a match here and know that the wicket can be trusted I’m expecting a high scoring game between arguably the two most powerful sides in the tournament apart from Bangalore.
Betting
This is a massive match for both sides. I think whoever loses here will miss out on the playoffs. Mumbai definitely will. They know this is must win but I find it hard to believe that Gujarat will survive on just 16pts with their run rate so they both have to win in my eyes.
Bookmakers can’t split them and I can understand that. In fairness they do look pretty evenly matched sides with both having power with the bat and enough canny bowlers to make life difficult for the other so I don’t really have a strong feeling either way on who will win this one.
Instead I’m going to target the boundaries here and I’m going to do that because both their run rates are that bad that they need to improve it so I don’t think this will be just about winning the game for these two. They know they need to pile up the runs to do something about their run rate.
Of course that won’t happen at the risk of losing but when they do get a chase or a total under control I don’t expect any easing up because every ball and every run could be vital this weekend and they’ll both know that.
The boundaries here are perfectly accessible. We saw 29 here on Thursday despite neither side scoring 130 and there is no Sunil Narine around drying up the boundaries here either. We only need eight more boundaries to have the 36.5 line covered here and with the batting power on display I’m expecting at least that many and probably plenty more.
Tips
WON – Back Over 36.5 boundaries for a 4/10 stake at 1.83 with William Hill
Back it here:
