In the absence of a PGA Tour event this week we will head to the European Tour for our fantasy fix. As always there are some decent value games with our fantasy partners at DraftKings where you can win as much as $5,000 for as little as $3 in their multigame tournaments.
We managed to nail three of the top five in our last DFS Fantasy Breakdown for the BMW Championship on the PGA Tour last week and hopefully we can deliver the goods for your line ups this week.
Profile
There is a strong feeling that the course at the Golf Club Milano fits accuracy so that is the trend we are going to pick our teams with this week. We will fit in a smattering of players who get it out there and make birdies into the line ups too.
Star Men
This section is for those who cost $8,000 or higher. Given the depth of the field there is a large number of players in this range.
MAIN PICK – Byeong-Hun An $10,800
He is our main bet this week and he is our main fantasy pick too. We’ve mentioned in the betting preview how we think this course suits the Korean down to the ground and we’re expecting plenty of birdies from him off the back of last week. He is pricy but he should deliver the goods with a big score.
PICK – Tyrell Hatton $9,400
Hatton is another player who drives the ball nicely and who makes plenty of birdies. In the last few months he has found some consistency. We need to ignore the last two outings when he has gone globetrotting but he’s had enough time to acclimatise again and I’m expecting him to get back to the golf that saw him deliver four top 20 finishes in a row in July and August. T7 at Wentworth is an added bonus.
PICK – Scott Hend $9,000
The Australian is the form horse this week heading into the tournament of the back of two top five finishes. I wouldn’t normally go near him on a tight track but he’s delivered the goods on two of them in the last fortnight so his golf is in good shape. Scores over 100 in the last two weeks suggest we should just all over Hend at what is still a fair price.
PICK – Alejandro Canizares $8,300
Another man who is coming into form at the right part of the season. He threatened the 100pt mark in a top five finish in Holland last week and these are the sort of courses he specialises in. He has an excellent record at Wentworth which is a similar track to this one so I’m expecting him to go well again here.
AVOID – Joost Luiten $10,300
Confidence is a funny thing and while you would think Luiten will be full of it having won last week we should remember his game wasn’t in tip top form before then. It might be that familiarity delivered success last week and if that is the case he might go back to the lower level here. I dare say the celebrations will have been lengthy too and that isn’t good when we are splashing out over a fifth of our budget. Dodge.
AVOID – Andy Sullivan $8,900
I’m a big Andy Sullivan fan but he isn’t driving the golf ball as well as he can do at the minute and the rest of his game is struggling as a result. He is under pressure to find his game again before the Ryder Cup in two weeks time and that isn’t the scenario I want to be spending this kind of fee on so I’ll avoid the Englishman this week.
Mid-Range Players
This section covers those who cost us between $6,600 and $8,000 and given the size of the field there are quite a large number of players here too.
PICK – Chris Wood $7,800
This looks a great price on the BMW PGA champion. The fact he won at Wentworth and has a decent record there overall is very much a positive as is the confidence he has from having made it into the Ryder Cup as a result of that. His strength is with his driver and that’s how I want it this week so I’m expecting another big showing here.
PICK – Matteo Manassero $7,300
There have been one or two signs that the Italian is coming back into form in recent months and given that he begins the week 20th on the European Tour for greens in regulation that upturn in form should continue this week. He won’t lack for motivation in his home open which could be important and I’m expecting more than just a made cut this week.
PICK – Joakim Lagergren $7,200
Third here last year and showed some excellent form in Denmark recently which suggests he is on the upgrade again this week. Lagergren found a lot of greens in regulation over in Denmark which is the necessary route to score well here and I’m expecting the Swede to deliver a big performance.
PICK – Gregory Havret $6,700
One of the straightest hitters on the European Tour so he should go very well this week. There shouldn’t be as much emphasis on his putting this week as there has been in previous ones because of the small greens so given that he’s likely to spend most of the time on the short grass he looks a cheap pick up this week.
PICK – Paul Peterson $6,600
The Czech Masters champion is still pretty cheap given how well he is driving the ball. He sits 12th on the European Tour for fairways hit and followed his win in Czech Republic up with an opening 64 in Switzerland a couple of weeks ago before it all got a bit too much for him but you don’t shoot 64s if you’re not hitting the golf ball well and he’s another who looks cheap enough to include in our teams.
AVOID – Pablo Larrazabal $7,900
Sometimes the numbers do lie and I think they do with Pablo recently. His figures are heavily distorted by good finishes in the last two weeks and while he still shot those finishes there are only so many times you can get away with poor starts. I don’t think this is a course for waywardness and when Pablo goes wayward he does it spectacularly. He’s quite expensive for the potential gain.
AVOID – Victor Dubuisson $6,900
I’ve no idea what has happened to Dubuisson’s game but it has gone missing and has been missing for quite a while. Even when he is bang on it he prefers courses that are more open than this one so excluding him from our teams makes a lot of sense.
AVOID – Alvaro Quiros $6,600
Six missed cuts in seven tell their own story for the Spaniard and while length might suit him this week a lack of accuracy certainly won’t. Absolutely no value in him at all at this price.
Bottom End Players
We focus on those who cost $6,500 and less in this section. This is the least populated section but there are still some to be picked and avoided.
PICK – Eduardo de la Riva $6,500
De la Riva is a good pick statistically this week. He begins the week 13th in fairways hit on Tour and he can find greens as well but as with all Spaniards if he doesn’t he has the short game to compete. There should be some good upturns at this price.
PICK – Graeme Storm $6,400
The Englishman is just outside the top 30 for fairways hit going into the week and we’ve seen some good signs from him recently. His two top 10s on the year have both come in the last seven tournaments and he opened up in Switzerland with a good round. He has dropped $900 in price since last week despite only having one bad round. If he can find the fairways this week he should score well.
PICK – Ben Evans $6,400
Another relentlessly straight hitter who has enjoyed himself in recent weeks. He will tee off inside the top 25 in fairways hit on the Tour this year which is no mean feat and a top five finish last week will have done his confidence no harm. He is only $100 more expensive this week which is excellent for us as we know his confidence is high. On a track where finding the fairways is everything he should go well again.
PICK – Chris Hanson $6,200
Nobody found more greens in Holland last week than Hanson and that was a statistic that saw him finish in the top 10. It is now back to back top 20 finishes on the Tour for Hanson so he is hitting form at the right time. We would have had to pay $7,200 for him last week so to get him at this price is excellent and while this field is a lot stronger at the top end than last week I’m not convinced it contains as much danger as the change in price suggests. He looks a good pick off the back of a 20 birdie week.
AVOID – Haydn Porteous $6,500
Only made one cut in his last eight tournaments and that was at The Open where he was on the right side of the draw. Far too much chance of a missed cut for us to take him this week and even if he makes the cut he isn’t the sort of player who is accurate enough to keep the big numbers off the card.
AVOID – Brett Rumford $6,400
Only made two cuts in recent times and only finished in the top 75 once since the BMW PGA Championship. He went ok in a weak field in the Czech Republic but shot 84 in the third round in Switzerland two weeks ago. He’s easy to avoid.
AVOID – Simon Dyson $6,200
No top 60 finish in his last 10 tournaments makes him a pretty easy one to avoid too. Back in the day he might have enjoyed himself on this course but those days are well behind us and he’s not one to go near.
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