It is a huge day of racing on Saturday and the key action is not just reserved for Newmarket as once the 2000 Guineas has been run the attention will turn to America for the Kentucky Derby at Chruchill Downs.
This is one of the biggest races on the global calendar where a 10 furlong hero will be crowned for the 149th time. We’ve had a good look through the card for the big race and fancy an outsider against the field.
23.57 Churchill Downs
Preview
At 3 minutes to midnight, it’ll be time for the alleged greatest 2 minutes in sport as we witness the 149th running of the world’s most prestigious horse race, the Kentucky Derby. The tight turns of Churchill Downs is the venue and this year we have a field of 19 running over the mile and a quarter. Todd Pletcher and Irad Ortiz Jr combine with the favourite, Forte, who is unbeaten in his last 5 starts, most recently when worked harder than his 30/100 price would suggest he’d have to in landing the Florida Derby. He’s going to be tough to stop but 4/1 is too short a price in such a fiercely competitive race. Tapit Trice is another that couldn’t be in better having won his last 4 and that includes the Grade 1 Blue Grass last time out. I’m just not sure he’ll quite be quick enough to land the spoils so I’m against him. I do like the chances of Angel Of Empire but 7/1 is a shade too short for me to be getting involved. His form in landing the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby is very solid and I fully expect him to be there at the end. Kingsbarns will also be popular having won his 3 career starts so far but this is a step up in grade.
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Betting
Mage – The selection is lightly raced with just 3 runs to his name. After winning on debut, he’s twice been beaten by today’s favourite, Forte, but he’s improving from run to run and today he may just turn the tables. Over a mile, he was 4th behind Forte but it was his run last time out that impressed me the most. In the Grade 1 Florida Derby, he wasn’t the quickest away but looked the most likely winner when making an eyecatching run around the home turn. He came to pick up the running down the straight and had all his rivals on the stretch including Forte who only ever looked like getting there inside the last half furlong. The distance at the line was a length but it felt a whole lot closer than that and at 3 times the price, he’s the best each way shot in this race. His draw in 8 looks ideal and with a top jockey booked, I’m hopeful he’ll be in the frame down the finishing straight.
Tips
Back Mage (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 William Hill (⅕ odds 1-5)
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