The PGA Tour heads away from America this week for its annual stop off in Mexico for the Mexico Open at Vidanta tournament, the second staging of an event which continues the lead up to the next major of the year.
Jon Rahm had fun in this part of the world a year ago when he won the tournament and the Spaniard is in the field looking to make a successful defence of the title. You’d have to say the field opposing him isn’t the strongest this week.
Recent Winners
2022 – Jon Rahm
The Course
We are at the Greg Norman designed Signature Course at the Vidanta Vallarta resort. The first thing to note is that this track is only a mile from the coast so unlike the tracks which have been used for the Mayakoba Classic and the WGC event which was in Mexico, altitude is not an issue here as we are at sea level. The course is a par 71 which can stretch to a maximum of 7,456 yards so it is fairly long even by today’s standards.
The test here is said to be a tee to green one with accuracy very much required. The greens are pretty big though so whoever wins this tournament is probably going to be accurate into them. That will need to be the case because water is in play on a number of holes and there are over 100 bunkers on the course too, many of them said to be quite deep. The greens aren’t going to run quickly because of the wind so poor putters aren’t at too much of a disadvantage.
The Field
One of the bigger and better regular PGA Tour events takes place next week and the countdown is on for the PGA Championship so it is no surprise that we have a weaker than I’m sure was hoped field for this week. It will be headlined by the defending champion and Masters winner Jon Rahm though. Last year the two Mexican stars Abraham Ancer and Carlos Ortiz were around to add to the profile of the event but they are not here this time.
One other high profile player who tees it up in Mexico this week is Tony Finau but after that the strength in depth of the field weakens out quite quickly. There is a place in it for former US Open champion Gary Woodland, while complimenting Jon Rahm from Europe will be the likes of Nicolai Hojgaard and Alex Noren. The international charge this week is headed by Emiliano Grillo and Byeong-Hun An. It isn’t a great field but someone will win!
Market Leaders
Jon Rahm won this tournament as a 9/2 favourite to win the title a year ago and he returns for his title defence no bigger than 11/4 to win it for a second time in succession. This is a terribly weak field but Rahm has played a lot of golf and there are big events to come so while I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Rahm wins given the weak level of those opposing him, I’m not massively enthused about backing an 11/4 shot in any tournament.
Tony Finau will tee it up as an 8/1 shot to win the tournament. He had a great 2022 campaign but things haven’t been going quite as well for him in the 2023 part of his career. Finau was second here a year ago but he’d been in good form going into that event. It might be that he goes well again this year purely on the lack of depth in the field but I’m not convinced I want to be sweating it out over an 8/1 shot so he isn’t for me either.
Such is the lack of depth in this field that Wyndham Clark is an 18/1 third favourite to win the tournament this week. Clark played here a year ago but finished T67 so he is going to need a massive improvement on that if he is going to justify relatively skinny odds. Clark hasn’t been in bad form recently with a top five finish at the Valspar the highlight of his latest showings but I’m no backer of a player who is yet to win at these odds even in this field.
There is one other player in the field who is shorter than 30/1 and that is the former US Open champion Gary Woodland. He was T24 on -9 a year ago so he is going to need to put up an improvement on that if he is going to be competitive in this tournament. Woodland finished in the top 15 in The Masters but either side of that he hasn’t really delivered much in the last month so he would need to find something to win here you would think.
Main Bets
When I saw the field this week I am largely taking form out of the equation but I do want bigger hitters at a track where there is no penalty for missing the fairways. That brings Byeong Hun An into the equation. He sits at eight for driving distance this season and comes in here off the back of a couple of solid efforts on his own at TPC San Antonio and then last week alongside S.H Kim at the Zurich Classic. He tends to be at his best when he can smack the driver and the irons into large targets and that is exactly the test he gets this week. I think there is much more upside in the Korean than many in this field and I’ll pay to see if he delivers on that this week.
Taylor Pendrith has done nothing of note this season but I am hoping that changes this week. The Canadian is a massive hitter of the ball and with a lot of the courses the PGA Tour has been on in the last couple of months having a real premium on accuracy off the tee, it probably isn’t a surprise that the form of Pendrith hasn’t been what he would want to expect it to be. This track should be much more up the street of Pendrith who can smack it a mile and who showed in the Rocket Mortgage Classic last season that he can contend in better fields than the one he’ll be competing in here. There was enough alongside Michael Giglic last week to suggest that Pendrith is hitting the ball well again and he could be a big price here.
Outsiders
I’ll take a couple of big hitters as outsiders this week too. Vincent Norman was in the top 10 alongside Matthias Schwab last week and they were much better than that until a final round 73 which denied them a huge week. He was also T21 in Puerto Rico and T16 in the Puntacana where the fields were second string ones so he is in the right place to contend this week. Norman sits inside the top 20 in driving distance and although he had a partner last week the level of scoring he put up shows he is hitting the ball nicely. He could be a big price this week.
Matti Schmid is a massive hitter of the ball as well. At the recent Texas Open he was the longest in the field and is a player who gives it a good hit. He showed at The American Express that he can compete on the PGA Tour. He shot a pair of 64s and a 65 at that tournament so he can go low when he needs to. He was fourth in the South African Open on the DP World Tour earlier this season which shows that he can perform at altitude, which could be a big thing this week. He was also in the top 10 at the second string Barbasol Championship last year so he feels like a big price if he takes to the track on debut.
Tips
Back B-H.An to win Mexico Open at Vidanta (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 34.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back T.Pendrith to win Mexico Open at Vidanta (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back V.Norman to win Mexico Open at Vidanta (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 81.00 with William Hill (1/5 1-8)
Back them here:
Back M.Schmid to win Mexico Open at Vidanta (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 126.00 with Coral (1/5 1-10)
Copyright secured by Digiprove © 2023
