The first spot in the MLS Cup play-offs Conference finals is on the line on Thursday night, or the very early hours of Friday morning for those of us who are in the UK. Seattle Sounders and Portland Timbers meet at CenturyLink Field for the right to progress to the next stage.
Portland will take a 2-1 advantage to the home of their Cascadia Cup rivals which means that this second leg is set up perfectly. Whatever happens here Seattle have to score or their season is over. If Portland avoid defeat they will line up against Sporting Kansas City or Real Salt Lake in the Western Conference final.
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Seattle Sounders
After taking the lead early on at Providence Park on Sunday, the Seattle Sounders will have been disappointed to have let their advantage slip. They do have the away goal to take back home with them and while they are very strong at home you never want to be in the position where you have to win if you can help it. The Sounders are playoff specialists though so they will have been here before.
Clearly there is going to be a lot of pressure on the Seattle defence in this match, particularly early on. You would expect them to score in the match but if they concede the first goal and need two goals all of a sudden the pressure would really increase on their attacking play and it would allow Portland to settle into a defensive shape.
Portland Timbers
The Timbers now hold all the aces in this tie but at the same time they are in that position of not knowing whether to stick or twist. It is imperative that they are decisive with their plan of action in this match. It would be a risky way of playing it to defend for their lives and look to keep a clean sheet but if they do attack they would leave space for Seattle to capitalise.
Portland showed in the knockout round that they can go on the road and shut a team out which will give them confidence here, but there is a world of difference in snuffing out FC Dallas’ attack and this Seattle Sounders one. The one positive for Portland in this second leg is that at some point Seattle will have to throw the kitchen sink at them which will open up the potential for counter attacks.
Team News
Seattle Sounders could be forced into a couple of changes for this second leg with Cristian Roldan and Chad Marshall picking up injuries in the first encounter between the two sides. Both are officially listed as questionable but the vibe is both are unlikely to play.
Portland Timbers welcome Larrys Mabiala back from suspension for this match which means that Bill Tuiloma is expected to move back to the bench in what will most likely be the only change for the away side.
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Betting
We saw a good open game at Providence Park on Sunday evening and the sheer state of the tie now suggests we are likely to see another one here. Both sides get to play the game how they like to do it in this second leg so we really should see a good match to watch.
Seattle like to be on the front foot and taking the game to sides while Portland are more than happy to sit back and then hit teams on the counter attack and that is exactly how I expect this one to pan out. Given that both teams get to play the way they want I think we’ll see goals here and over 3 looks good to me. If Seattle score first Portland have to come out and play and if Portland score first Seattle will have to take plenty of risks. Over 3 will do me.
Tips
PUSH – Back Over 3 goals for a 4/10 stake at 1.91 with BetVictor
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