It is the eve of the best day on the county circuit as four sides feel the nerves and excitement building ahead of the NatWest T20 Blast finals day on Saturday.
Northamptonshire, Birmingham, Hampshire and Lancashire are the four sides all left with a shot at overall glory in front of a sold out crowd at Edgbaston.
I’ve already previewed both semi-finals in full elsewhere on this blog but a number of special markets for the day have been priced up and it would be wrong of me not to have a good look at them ahead of the big event.
I guess the first one we need to check out is the tournament outright market. As I’ve mentioned elsewhere I’m already on Northants to win the tournament but going into the final day I still think they are the value and at 4/1 anyone who isn’t already on them could do a lot worse than take them for the first bet of interest for the day.
We’ve also got top bowler and top batsmen markets priced up to have a go at. I’ll start with the top batsman one first. Obviously this is a market where playing two matches is likely to be a benefit in deciding the outcome so we should focus on the two sides who we think will make the final. For me that is Northants and Lancashire.
Clearly someone like David Willey could tear the rest apart and leave the other batsmen in his wake but he’s rightly plenty short enough. There is one man down the betting who is a nice price though especially given the each way terms available.
Jos Buttler is one of the best players in this form of the game in the entire country, a point he showed again in the quarter final at Kent. He doesn’t play much for Lancashire these days but when he does he makes a significant impression. He has only played twice this season in T20 but he has made 71* and 53 when he has played and if he keeps that form up he is going to be tough to chase down.
Buttler will bat in the top four for Lancashire and if he’s in when the death overs come along we know he can take any attack apart. At 16/1 he looks a good bet in the top batsman market.
Looking ahead to the top bowler market and I quite like a man who is expected to go well in the batsman market and that is David Willey. Willey is sure to want to go out on a high in this occasion given that it could be the last time he plays for Northants.
Willey has the perfect potential to go well. He bowls at the start of the innings when the ball swings and at the death when the cheap wickets are about. He took a hat-trick on finals day the year Northants won the trophy so we know he can perform well on the big day. He took 3 wickets in the quarter final as well so he’s likely to be a leading runner particularly if Northants do make the final.
I often like to have a spinner up my sleeve as well in this market especially with the wicket starting to turn the longer the day goes on and it could benefit Aaron Lilley that he plays in both the second semi-final and from his point of view hopefully the final too. Stephen Parry will be the centre of attention for Lancashire as a spinner obviously but teams could play him out and attack Lilley. Lilley has 14 wickets in the tournament this year and could be a huge price at 33/1.
Obviously we can’t mention the top bowler market without mentioning the likes of Azharullah, James Faulkner, Yasir Arafat and Chris Woakes and it would be no surprise were any of them to take the glory but the two men I’ve backed both have the profile to go well at significantly bigger prices.
Coral have priced up a market I like the look of too. That is the Top Six Hitter market. Only eight players count. They are David Willey, Richard Levi, James Vince, Michael Carberry, Ian Bell, William Porterfield, Steven Croft and James Faulkner.
I’m not convinced Faulkner and Croft will bat high enough whereas Bell, Porterfield and Vince aren’t natural big hitters of a cricket ball. That leaves me with three and with Carberry playing for a Hampshire side I’m not convinced will make the final I’ll narrow it down to the two Northants openers.
In that particular match we’ve seen Willey in much better form than Levi this season and particularly recently. Willey has six more sixes in the tournament than Levi in six less matches and with the motivation to go out with a bang the 9/2 on him to outhit his seven competitors looks far too big.
Back Northants to win T20 for a 2/10 stake at 5.00 with Ladbrokes
Back J.Buttler Top Finals Day Batsman (e/w) for a 1.5/10 stake at 17.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-3)
Back D.Willey Top Finals Day Bowler (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 15.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-3)
Back A.Lilley Top Finals Day Bowler (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 29.00 with Stan James (1/4 1-3)
Back D.Willey Top Six Hitter for a 3/10 stake at 5.50 with Coral
