There is a bit of a shortage of markets around for the NatWest T20 Blast which is a bit of a shame, but perfectly understandable as the tournament isn’t the best marketed in its current guise.
As well as the outright and group betting there is a top batsman market for the tournament and it would be wrong of us not to have a look at it before the tournament begins on Friday. Only Bet365 have the market up so kudos to them.
Market Leaders
Luke Wright is the favourite to lead the run scoring at 10/1, slightly ahead of Michael Klinger who is a real run machine. Both have had big success both in this tournament and in the Big Bash so they are worthy favourites.
Aaron Finch, Kumar Sangakkara and Riki Wessels all come in at 16/1 and if Sangakkara plays the entire tournament that would be a big price on him but I’m not sure he is and that isn’t good.
There is a large group of players at 20/1 including Michael Carberry, Ian Bell, James Vince, Jesse Ryder and Michael Lumb who have all gone well in the past and could easily do so again. Mahela Jayawardene and Chris Gayle lead a group on 22/1 and it is 25/1 bar.
Strategy
When we bet on this particular top batsman market we need to chuck out the players who are coming and going and aren’t playing the whole tournament. Occasionally you get a fly by night run well but over 14 group matches we want someone who will play most of the tournament if not all of it. If that player plays for a team that qualifies then so much the better.
With that in mind we can immediately throw players like Chris Gayle, Aaron Finch, Mahela Jayawardene, James Vince and Jason Roy out of the mix because they will either leave the tournament early or be away with England for much of the tournament.
There are plenty of other players in the betting who we can eliminate for these reasons. It is best to do some homework here but players like Brendon McCullum, David Willey, Jonny Bairstow, Alex Hales and Ross Taylor are unlikely to play much of the tournament and while that is reflected in their prices they have little chance of competing at the top of the list.
Once we’ve done that we also need to throw out players who bat low for their counties. They might be capable of the odd cameo but over 14 matches odd cameos are going to be no good. You need consistent run scorers so those in the top three especially or maybe a number four if he is potentially special like say a Darren Stevens or something. They’ll get most time at the crease so in theory should score the most runs.
If you want to whittle the field down further you can keep players who bat on small grounds for their home matches or good wickets such as Chelmsford, Taunton, Ageas Bowl or Canterbury but the wickets are being prepared much better this summer so that doesn’t worry me as much.
Betting
Usually I would go in hard at these markets but this is the one such market of the whole year I can’t steam into. The reason for that is this tournament is played in the middle of the County Championship season so players are chopping and changing formats and it can become a lottery. Then you have players called up for England out of the blue with a bit of form and it becomes difficult.
With that in mind I’m just going to take a couple of punts on players who meet my above criteria and who have been in good form already this summer and I’m hoping just use that confidence to hit the ball cleanly and score nicely.
Hamish Marshall has begun the season well for Gloucestershire with 497 runs in the Championship at over 50 and he has been opening the batting for the Bristol outfit in recent seasons. His season was limited to just eight matches last season but he still managed 322 runs and only needed another 160 runs to place.
We’ve seen Marshall make centuries in this tournament in the past so we know he can get after the bowling at this level and he seems to have a good partnership with Michael Klinger which helps too. Marshall is an international quality batsman at his best and with the form he’s in and the reputation he has at this level and the success he’s had 50/1 on him to top score is far too big especially with Gloucestershire being dark horses for the tournament.
Chesney Hughes is the leading run scorer in the County Championship second tier this season and is currently averaging nearly 114 and I think it is worth paying to see how well he goes in this competition.
He hasn’t had much success in T20 but that is a surprise because he is a perfect build for belting big shots. He has never come into the tournament in the form he is currently in and given that he is hitting the ball so well and so clean I wouldn’t be surprised if we get a couple of substantial knocks from him along the line. If he can mix a few starts and a few cameos around that, which he should do as he’s in form, then he might give us more than a fair run at a three figure price.
Tips
Back H.Marshall Top Tournament Batsman (e/w) for a 1/10 stake at 51.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back C.Hughes Top Tournament Batsman (e/w) for a 0.5/10 stake at 101.00 with Bet365 (1/4 1-5)
Back them here:
